08/04 MLB Picks, Predictions, Stats: Red Sox vs. Tigers, Pirates vs. Brewers, Padres vs. A’s

Red Sox vs. Tigers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Tigers +1.5 (-125). LHP Rodriguez has been part of a somewhat troubled pitching staff in Boston the past month. Four starting pitchers (Rodriguez, Richards, Pivetta and Perez) have an ERA above 6.00, and Rodriguez has a 1.800 WHIP in his last 15 innings. The Tigers offense has scored more runs than anyone the past two weeks with 72, whereas the Red Sox are 20th on that list with 49. Four different Tigers (Baddoo, Candelario, Cabrera and Haas) are slugging above .500 in their last 12 games, so I think the Tigers are straight up sending out the hotter players and team right now.

As the home underdog this season, the Tigers are 26-14 (65%) against the spread, while the Red Sox as away favorite are just 7-15 against the spread. Those splits are in huge favor of the Tigers to cover in this one.

Pirates vs. Brewers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-113). Last night the Pirates won as underdogs against the Brewers. Today, the Brewers will rally behind RHP Peralta to further show why it’s a good idea to bet on really good teams with a good starting pitcher facing statistically inferior opponents. At home this year, Peralta is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, .107 BAA and has only allowed a .136 batting average to the Pirates this season in three starts. The Pirates are only 23rd in runs scored the past two weeks, while the Brewers offense is 4th with 68. Not to mention the Pirates have the worst slugging percentage in the past two weeks as well.

If you weren’t convinced already, maybe this will help. The Pirates only cover 40.7% of the time as road underdogs this year, 38.1% of the time against division opponents, and they have only covered four times this year against the Brewers after being the underdog in all 15 games.

Padres vs. Athletics

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Padres ML (+105). This could be an exciting pitching matchup, as two guys face off who have sub 3.00 ERA’s in their last 20+ innings pitched. RHP Montas has really been dialed in lately, throwing at least six innings in four straight starts, three of those included double digit strikeouts to pair with a 2.10 ERA in that span. However, he has been more hittable at home this year and the Padres have the highest batting average at Oakland this year, with a .341/.386/.463 slash line in 41 at bats.

The A’s have had a bit of trouble crossing the plate as they rank 28th in runs scored the past two weeks, and RHP Musgrove can force that tough streak to continue as he brings a team best 2.82 ERA in his last 22 and one third innings.

Stats pulled from:

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