Rangers vs. Red Sox
Red Sox -1.5 (-160). Maybe I’m crazy enough to take such a big favorite, but I am comfortable betting my usual price on the Red Sox to beat the Rangers by 2 runs or more this game. The Red Sox have the best hitting offense in the league the past two weeks, as they collectively own a .369 wOBA, they have scored the second most runs (Rays) in that time frame with 75, and also have the third lowest strikeout rate at just 17.7%. LHP Allard has flat out been one of the worst pitchers on the Rangers this season with a 3-10 record and a FIP of 4.76. I’ll give him credit, he has put together three straight quality starts and does look to have promise, which makes it hard to bet against his recent success. However, there was a seven game stretch in which the Rangers lost all of his starts by at least two runs. RHP Eovaldi has also been kind of a wildcard this season in terms of runs allowed, but with a 24% K rate and just a 4% BB rate in the past month, he is showing effective control amongst the best of them.
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays ML (-105). This is a VERY well matched game that I’m interested in having a little bit of stake in.
| Stat | TOR | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| K Rate | 17.3% | 22.0% |
| BB Rate | 9.6% | 8.5% |
| wOBA | .338 | .343 |
| wRC+ | 113 | 120 |
RHP Lynn has been amongst the best in the past month, allowing just a .298 wOBA and striking out 27.8% of the batters he’s faced to go along with a FIP of 3.25. The White Sox have won the last five games Lynn has started, and he threw seven innings of one run baseball against TOR over two months ago. RHP Manoah has an even better wOBA in the past month at just .270 and a strikeout percentage of 23.3%. His FIP is not too far from Lynn’s at 3.68 either. He pitched six innings and allowed one earned run against CHW the last time these two pitchers went head to head. Obviously a closely matched game, but I think the edge goes to the team sleeping in their own bed the night before, and am backing the Jays in this one.
Yankees vs. Braves
Yankees F5 ML (+120). This is yet another very well matched game that I want at least a little bit of dog in the fight.
| Stat | NYY | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| K Rate | 25.9% | 21.3% |
| BB Rate | 12.0% | 11.6% |
| wOBA | .342 | .346 |
| wRC+ | 119 | 114 |
LHP Montgomery has been good enough against the Braves lineup to show confidence in taking them as underdogs. Through 23 plate appearances, they own a .228 wOBA against him and he has just a 2.82 FIP while only allowing one extra base hit. Meanwhile on a much smaller scale, RHP Ynoa owns a 14.11 FIP and wOBA of .656 against them through 10 plate appearances against a handful of Yankees hitters (Rizzo, Gardner, Sanchez, LeMahieu, Voit).
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