Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130). Say what you want about these two teams and how I might regret betting on either one of them, but this is a pretty good payout for a team that should have no problem winning this game. LHP Bumgarner has gone seven straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs, and in the past month he has a great FIP of 3.42 and wOBA against him at just .258. The Pirates offense is the leagues worst in the past month with only 58 wRC+ and the worst wOBA at .256. The Dbacks on the other hand are top ten in most offensive categories the past month, a .350 wOBA (5th), 118 wRC+ (6th), and 65 runs total (9th). I am even more confident betting against RHP Brubaker, who posts a 7.46 FIP and 10.1% BB rate in the past month. The Pirates have lost 11 of his last 12 starts, so that should tell you enough.
Nationals vs. Marlins
Nationals ML (-105). I think this game will end with a Nationals victory. RHP Fedde has a 2.31 FIP against the Marlins lineup in his career, along with a 23.1% K rate and just a .162 wOBA allowed. LHP Luzardo has been a nightmare lately, posting a 12.4% BB rate and a 6.20 FIP in his last 36 innings. On top of that, the Nationals have the second highest walk rate in the majors the past two weeks at 11.8%, and are ninth in wOBA at .336 in the past two weeks as well.
Reds vs. Brewers
Brewers -1.5 (+105). I am looking to take advantage of RHP Burnes’ abilities in some form or another. He has been virtually impossible to score against in his last three starts, throwing 21 innings and giving up only one run. RHP Mahle has shown the ability to shut out opponents, but I believe it is more the exception than the norm, and that’s likely what he’ll have to do going toe to toe with Burnes. MIL has the best offense in baseball the past two weeks, leading the league in wRC+ with 134, wOBA with .375 and second in runs (TB) with 78. Being at the top of the league in those stats is usually enough for me to believe they can cover the run line behind an ace pitcher, who is also the best in the entire league at what he does.
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