CIN -2.5 (-115)
I like betting on this number for divisional games, and CIN has an average margin of victory of 19 in their two divisional games this season. CLV has looked like a different offense without Kareem Hunt and Baker Mayfield’s shoulder issues, scoring less than 20 points in four of their last five games. CIN does have a bye this week and I’m aware of how that could affect the energy of the game, but at this point I think they’re the better team and get a 27-21 win at home.
CHI +6.5 (-110)
PIT is my favorite team, but I see holes in their offense that could get exposed in any given week. The same could be said about CHI, and because of such a high probability of a low-scoring affair, I think the spread is giving enough points to be confident in backing CHI here. They will prove to be outmatched, but 20-17 is an outcome I wouldn’t be shocked by.
MIA -5.5 (-115)
This is truly just a bet against HOU as I do think they are the worst team in the AFC, and only getting worse while trading away players like Mark Ingram. They have scored less than 10 points in four games this year, and have given up more than 30 points in five games. MIA is on a terrible seven game losing streak, but something tells me even that squad can handle HOU right now. Additionally, it’s a play on a nice number of 6.5, so a final score of 23-14 would be what you could expect.
LV -3 (+100)
The team with the most distractions and negative media mentions is looking at a favorable matchup here. They are coming off of a bye week, and NYG has it following this week. That’s worth something seeing how TB, WSH and DET all had ugly losses last week with their bye following. Additionally, LV has a sizeable advantage in many key statistics:
|NY/A||7.6 (5th)||6.5 (16th)|
|NY/A allowed||5.6 (4th)||6.3 (13th)|
|Pressure rate||27% (6th)||19.8% (28th)|
|Points per drive||2.25 (15th)||1.72 (24th)|
DAL -9.5 (-110)
DAL started the year going toe to toe with the defending champs and just found a way to beat MIN in primetime without Dak Prescott (who should be back this game). Aside from that, they sport a top three rated offense week in and week out. DEN showed the fate of their season by trading away Von Miller, and they really started slipping anyways as their defense is getting shredded on the ground which will make it hard to stop DAL’ two amazing running backs. DAL rattles off seven wins in a row, 31-21.
|Pressure rate||30.7% (32nd)||15.4% (3rd)|
|Yards per play||5.5 (19th)||6.5 (T-1st)|
|Yards per play allowed||5.4 (10th)||6.1 (27th)|
|Turnover rate||9.9% (20th)||17.5% (3rd)|
GB ML (+250)
GB found a way to win without star players last week, and although losing one of the best QB’s of all time and the reigning MVP is much more serious, they planned for situations like this by drafting Jordan Love (a QB) in the first round a few years ago. He will be able to run a very advanced and effective offense against the worst defense in the entire league. Anything for them will be able to work, which is similar to what could happen on the other side; Hill, Kelce and Mahomes are always capable of marching down the field in a short amount of time if defenses aren’t careful. My prediction is 31-28.
Parlay: SF, PIT, MIA, LV (+248)
Parlay: DAL, BAL, CIN, NE (+365)
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