TEN just finished up a tough loss to PIT on the east coast, and has a short week traveling to the west coast to face an even more physical and technically sound football team in SF who has won five straight non-divisional games.
Reflection: An honest mistake misreading the schedule to think SF was at home. Regardless, I still probably would have taken the points. TEN came out flat as I expected but they converted off of SF turnovers and refused to give the ball up themselves which we know can determine a majority of games.
I know the levels of difference in skill level among these two teams, however if TB is without Godwin, Evans and potentially Fournette then CAR defense could keep them at bay, considering Brady has yet to face this CAR defense this season.
Reflection: Well TB has beaten down bad teams in the past, and Tom Brady isn’t exactly known for playing down to competition. It was dumb of me to ever bet against him, especially against a bad CAR team.
Despite KC throwing for over 400 yards against LAC last game, prior to that it had been an average of just 212 yards per game since their bye week in Week 7. HOU’ offense is terrible; 32nd in rushing Y/A, 30th in passing NY/A, 32nd in yards per dive, and 32nd in points per drive as well. They have beaten JAX twice this season and their other win came in a game against TEN in which they forced five turnovers and committed zero. Well played, but based on the data, that fortune will not be repeated in a game this season.
Reflection: My goodness was I wrong with this one. LAC lost outright and really just let HOU win the game. I have terrible luck when taking double digit favorites, so much so that I might not bet them anymore!
I will fade JAX until the season is over. I have mentioned in my posts before and I stand by what I said as it hasn’t failed me yet! Dysfunctional and arguable the worst football team to be a part of the past few seasons.
Reflection: My pride and joy, only win of the slate. JAX actually should have covered this and maybe even won the game, but Trevor Lawrence spiked the ball on 3rd and goal with about 15 seconds left to only give them one play. Not anything to be concerned with, but it does pay to bet against JAX, again.