Free NFL Bets – Week 4

CIN -3.5 (-110)

I know MIA is taking the world by storm right now, and rightfully so. Tua has been the second highest rated QB this season, and the duo of Waddle + Hill is impossible to contain. But, for some reason, Vegas has set the line more than a FG favorite toward CIN, so they know something that I don’t! Could be a hangover week for MIA.

Reflection: All the concern should be on Tua after this game, he never deserved to be in that spot. CIN covered and looked like the more rested, put together team but it was hard to celebrate this one.

BAL +3.5 (-110)

BAL has the highest rated QB this season in Lamar Jackson, leading an offense that he’s always been capable of scoring 30+ points with per game. BUF seems like the team to beat in the AFC, despite their loss down in MIA without all their secondary starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see crazy good QB numbers in this game, but the fact again here is the line is set more in BAL favor than I would have anticipated, so I am leaning on them having a good outing against a great AFC contender.

ATL ML (+110)

CLE has shown to be a decent football team despite playing with their backup QB. Truth be told (look at the linked QB rankings), J. Brissett has played better than most other QB’s in the league! ATL is one of those ‘fun, but young and bad’ teams, which I think gives them a chance to put a few plays together that are enough to change the outcome of this one. Too close of a line when I think CLE clearly has the better roster/coach/scheme combination.

JAX ML (+220)

Eh, PHI could be the best team in the entire NFL (not enough conclusive evidence yet), but JAX has really turned some heads the past two weeks with incredible performances on both sides of the ball. Maybe there’s something to be said about D. Pederson coaching against PHI, where he won a super bowl. Or, maybe this is one of those games that the decision making and playmaking ability of T. Lawrence & J. Hurts will determine the outcome. I like juiced up underdogs like this, but never thought it would be JAX against a team as hot and loaded as PHI. Here goes nothing!

CAR ML (-120)

This is mostly a fade ARI play, because K. Murray is somewhat ineffective without playmaking WR’s (Hopkins/Kirk) and pass-catching RB’s (Edmonds). I don’t like betting to favor CAR, but I think this is another instance where I would have set the line probably -2.5 ARI, so it’s off enough for me to realize I’m not totally analyzing it correctly and someone with lots of information thinks CAR has an advantage.

NFL QB Power Rankings: Week 4 – Statistical Winners, Losers

To save time and debate, I created an objective answer to who the best QB in the NFL is right now. Below is the statistical ratings for each QB, and the categories/weights used to conduct the data analysis. For a more detailed and custom view, download the file below the embedded ratings.

    The following chart illustrates the statistical relationship between variables and Win %, an important dependent variable in this case. These insights give us reason to use EPA, QBR, ANY/A, PFF grade and Passer Rating in our data model to measure QB performance.

    Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society

    While measuring the relationship to wins in the same season is valuable, identifying the relationship to predict future season data is extremely relevant in this case. This gives us ideas for the weight of each category (which can always be adjusted), and PFF grade should clearly be the highest. Followed by a substantial gap with EPA and ANY/A and finished off with QBR and Passer Rating.

    Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society. *The r-squared values are low, as the r-squared value for win% and next season win% is really low at .07. Football is hard to predict.

    The data will be collected from Pro Football Reference (Passer Rating, QBR, ANY/A), PFF (PFF Grades), and ESPN (EPA).

    The TRUTH Behind ‘Featured’ Parlays or ‘Super Boosts’ on Sports Betting Apps

    In the past two weeks, there was 61 total ‘boosted’ parlays across these major sportsbooks; BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars and Barstool. 55 of those boosted parlays lost.

    Now, we will acknowledge the odds of these parlays, because even though some of them are boosted, they are still relatively low probability bets. Given the data imported and scraped from Sports Betting Dime, we see that the average odds for these parlays was +522.38.

    If a user of these major sportsbook placed $10 on each of these parlays over the two weeks, that unlucky user would have lost $416.98, with a return on investment of -216.03%.

    These shocking insights would suggest a strategy to identify what the boosts are for specific games, and pinpoint if there are any individual markets to target a ‘fade’ of these boosted parlays. The sportsbooks offer these ‘boosts’ and ‘promotions’ for a reason!

    Here is a copy of the scraped data and calcuations:

      NFL Free Bets: Week 3

      MIA ML (+190)

      BUF has steamrolled the competition in their last 16 wins, all of them coming by double digits or more. However, I think there’s something to be said about divisional opponents on the road, especially when MIA has the two fastest WR’s in the league. BUF just lost M. Hyde, a great safety that will surely cause some steps backward in their secondary. There was enough juice here to pull the trigger.

      Reflection: Quite the game battled in the heat of Miami, but in the end this value paid off big time! The loss of starters on defense may have cost BUF just a few extra big plays that allowed MIA to take the lead and hold off the offense for just a few drives. MIA remains undefeated.

      CAR ML (+116)

      Carolina is a really bad football team with really bad coaches, but I can’t shake the feeling that NO should be favored by more in this game, with the better roster nearly top to bottom. That always tells me that Vegas knows something! And again, this is a road divisional opponent…

      Reflection: CAR took control from the start and really never lost it. NO and Jameis look like they’re going down a road of many losses and questionable outcomes. CAR didn’t look too good either, and as a CMC fantasy owner, I’d love for him to catch some more passes.

      MIN -6 (-110)

      DET has been one of the surprising teams this year, especially offensively. This is a game that I feel like the spread should be closer to 3.5 rather than 6, so I see Vegas’ anticipating something happening and want to get on board with that. DET can run the ball against anyone, I just question if they’ll have any answer to MIN offense.

      Reflection: Despite winning by more than a field goal, MIN failed to cover the points laid to them this week. DET controlled the first half of this game, J. Goff looked like Brady and MIN was stalling on offense for about an hour. Per usual though, DET defense broke down and the offense didn’t have the dynamic ability to get into a shootout on command. They kept it close until one of the last plays and looked like a good team for a good portion of this game.

      CIN -6 (-110)

      With a rough start to the year, CIN is not looking to lose to NYJ like they did last season. Burrow is going to be under pressure a lot this year as we have seen, however I don’t think NYJ has the defensive scheme/talent to capitalize as much as teams like PIT and DAL did. I expect them to respond positively in this game and win convincingly.

      Reflection: CIN pounced all over NYJ, as I predicted here. The WR trio of Higgins, Chase and Boyd is the best in the league, and the NYJ offense has always been a mess as long as I can remember. CIN capitalized on costly penalties but also were dominant in making plays on the ball and attacking strengths/weaknesses in a strategic way.

      CHI vs. HOU under 39.5 (-114)

      These two teams will be near the bottom offensively when it’s all said and done, so I have no problem taking an under, especially when it’s set this low. CHI style of offense will drain the clock without putting too many points on the board, and hopefully their defense has a better matchup than against GB last week.

      Reflection: Both offenses looked like they can run the ball decently, however they got off to a relatively fast scoring start and cruised past this total. I still think the under in most CHI games are a good play, along with PIT and DEN.

      NFL Free Bets – Week 2

      MIA +3.5 (-110)

      T. Hill and J. Waddle are a perfect compliment to a great running scheme. BAL is susceptible to the run, and might not have the manpower to go one on one with MIA top guys. Phins keep it close to the ugly birds.

      Reflection: An offensive performance I doubt anyone predicted, Tua and MIA won outright against BAL thanks to his 5 TD passes and an incredible comeback. Lamar was nearly perfect but the BAL defense really stunk it up to hand MIA a comeback win.

      NYG -2.5 (-110)

      Offensively, NYG looks like they have the talent to put up some crooked numbers, especially on the ground. Given the problems CAR just had against the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. Saquon can burst at any time!!

      Reflection: A game as boring as it looked on paper, managed to play out exactly how Vegas wanted it to. NYG and CAR kept the game close the entire time and a massive FG won it late. Defenses played well, particularly CAR, who just couldn’t manage to win the time of possession due to turnovers.

      NYJ ML (+210)

      CLE has a good rushing attack, just like BAL did before the Jets played great against that area. This game could come down to a field goal at the last second.

      Reflection: I’m going to continue betting moneyline underdogs when I think they got a chance! CLE played well but really just let NYJ back in the game, and they just kept feeding their two-headed RB monster as well as the young stud G. Wilson. A. Cooper was a force for CLE, even without a star QB, and Chubb/Hunt duo did what they will likely do every week.

      TB ML (-155)

      Gotta be a trap, because Tom Brady can have an offense comfortably control a game despite not playing well. NO have dominated him though, so don’t be surprised if they figure out a way to slow him down or keep him off the field (even better).

      Reflection: Tom Brady is the best person to bet on ever, I’m pretty sure that would be a correct statistic but that’s also my personal experience. I am 5-0 when betting on TB12.

      SEA +10 (-110)

      Geno Smith is 10-0 against the spread in his last 10 games, I gotta ride that! Anyways, the 49ers somehow let a lead slip away against a pretty young and questionable athletes on CHI roster, making me think perhaps their young and questionable athlete is not ready to lead an NFL team. Backdoor cover at the least.

      Reflection: A game that included the unfortunate loss of young QB T. Lance, who was lined up to be the next young generational QB. SF dominated the game regardless, winning by 20. However, J. Garrapollo did everything that he does in order to win football games (rating over 100).

      CIN -7.5 (-110)

      I’m doubtful that any defense will replicate the game against CIN that PIT did last week, and they’ll be hungry to assert their dominance. Why not roll with a good team after a loss?

      Reflection: Super Bowl hangover? Losing to M. Trubisky and C. Rush are not great talking points at practice or team meetings. CIN offensive line was the problem when J. Burrow got injured two years ago, it was the problem during the Super Bowl last year, and the offensive line proved again in this game that they are still a liability, giving up six sacks and less than four yards per carry.

      TEN +10 (-110)

      Let’s not forget that sometimes D. Henry just totally takes over a game. I’m thinking that TEN is going to be a below average team this year, however I think for a game like this they will be prepared for. Feed the machine.

      Reflection: BUF is insanely good, they’ve won 16 straight games by 10+ points. TEN didn’t stand a chance with their limited roster talent.

      PHI -2 (-110)

      If J. Hurts can make good throwing decisions and keep using his mobility for first downs and scores, this PHI team is good enough to go a long way this season. I am going to imagine a quick pass to D. Smith early in the game to get him involved after getting no action last week.

      Reflection: The addition of A. Brown seems to be a good fit for J. Hurts, who used him to get comfortable and start finding other guys like Watkins and Smith throughout the game. Hurts also ran the ball as well as any QB, and he looks to be big and strong enough to take the hits and punish defensive backs for going low.

      Parlay: NYG, CIN, BUF (+166)

      MLB Hitter Power Rankings: June Edition

      Recently I saw this post by MLB on Twitter that inspired me to create my own method of power rankings for hitters. There’s so much talent and data available to us today, which allows someone like me to come up with a reasonable confirmation of who is the best hitter in baseball right now.

      My Top Ten

      1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
      2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
      3. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros
      4. Bryce Harper, DH, Phillies
      5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals
      6. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
      7. Kyle Schwarber, 1B/OF, Phillies
      8. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
      9. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees
      10. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians

      Which MLB Hitter Has Been the ‘Best’ in Recent Years? MLB Research Question

      In baseball, there are dozens of statistics that are used to measure a players overall performance. Rather than joining the never ending conversation of which ones matter vs. which ones don’t, I set out to answer my own question based on my own criteria. The question is – which MLB player has been the best hitter for the past three seasons? When I say ‘best’, I mean who gives their team the best chance to win by hitting the ball. For the sake of this research question, the four stats I will be analyzing are wOBA, runs produced (RBI + R scored), hard hit percentage and average exit velocity.

      Here is my reasoning and brief explanation for each:

      • wOBA (weighted on base average) is my favorite offensive statistic in sports. It does a precise job of measuring players’ and teams’ ability to be productive, as it assigns different weighted scores to different results of an at bat. wOBA has the highest correlation of any offensive stat to runs scored, meaning the better the wOBA, the higher the runs scored will be.
      • Runs produced (RBI + R) captures the availability and the effectiveness of a player within the lineup he plays in. The entire defense of 9 players is doing all they can to prevent runs from crossing the plate, so that should indicate the importance of a stat like this. This obviously helps guys in the lineup every day, but that’s something that is a pre requisite to be the best hitter in the game.
      • Hard hit percentage measures how often a player ends an at bat with a hard hit ball in fair territory. From youth sports all the way to the professional leagues, hitting a ball hard is always the first goal for hitters because it; breeds confidence, increases chances of getting a hit/on base, and also is a really simple goal to have for each plate appearance.
      • Average exit velocity is very similar to hard hit percentage, but it differs because it really works to measure the raw power in each player rather than how often that player reaches that raw power. Larger built guys score better here, but the reality is that they are able to generate more force behind the baseball which is what drives extra base hits and tough defensive plays.

      TOP TEN HITTERS 2019-2021

      1. Mookie Betts
      2. Vlad Guerrero Jr.
      3. Manny Machado
      4. Matt Olson
      5. Nelson Cruz Jr.
      6. Rafael Devers
      7. Bryce Harper
      8. Jose Abreu
      9. Freddie Freeman
      10. Juan Soto

      Winning a batting title is something most professional players will never feel the joy of winning. But, does winning a batting title necessarily mean they are one of the better offensive players in the sport? Here’s a look at the past three batting title winners and a summary of their stats for those years:

      As you will see, placing more weight on certain statistics of a player will provide a clearer image for who really has been the best. So, batting average doesn’t really indicate the best offensive player; after the final calculations, Turner ranks as the 13th best hitter, LaMahieu 11th and Anderson 37th over the past three seasons (2019, 2020, 2021).

      The Analysis

      I began this process by gathering the relevant statistics from trusted open sites such as Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference. After cleaning and importing the data to work with, I broke it down into three sections for each year in question.

      For each year the same methods of calculation were used; each recorded stat is measured up against the rest of the qualified hitters for that season, by utilizing a formula that requires a Most Desirable (maximum value) and a Least Desirable (minimum value) score. This score is referenced as the scaled score.

      In this case the highest number for each stat was the most desirable, but it may be the case (like pitching statistics) where least desirable is actually the lowest number.

      Next, the scaled score is multiplied by a pre-determined weight for each category. The total weight between all categories must equal 100, and since there are four categories I used, I think they are all equally important so I weigh them at 25 (out of 100) each. This results in the actual score.

      Once the actual score is gathered for each of the categories, the sum of those actual scores results in a players final score for that season.

      This process occurred for all three seasons, and the final score at the end of every season was used in sum to get the FINAL rankings for the previous three years.

      Conclusion

      The hitters that rank higher in these calculations are those that take good swings at the plate and make the most of their opportunities on a routine basis. So, if I had to start a MLB team with one offensive player, I would start with Juan Soto.

      2022 MLB Future Bets: Best Odds, Picks and Charts for EVERY Team

      Not long ago, it seemed like professional baseball being played this spring was a long shot. After both sides agreed to something, the great sport of baseball is almost back in full swing (pun intended), only awaiting the first pitch of the season, scheduled to be Thursday, April 7th.

      Each team has a winning total set by various sports books in my state, so we’ll start with team win totals, then move on to division winners, player props and finally league awards bets. All of this work was done by @All_TimeBets & @DailyCFBCBB on Twitter, both of those pages are shown at the end of this page to get a feel for what they provide.

      Italicized bets are @DailyCFBCBB picks

      Bold bets are agreed upon by both parties

      Regular font are @All_TimeBets picks

      A.L. Central

      • Chicago White Sox // Over 91.5 (+100)
      • Cleveland Guardians // Under 76.5 (-110)
      • Detroit Tigers // Over 77.5 (-110)
      • Kansas City Royals // Over 74.5 (-110)
      • Minnesota Twins // Under 81.5 (-110)

      A.L. East

      You would have to bet every team (other than the Orioles) to win 90+ games to cash in their over prop within the division this season.
      • Baltimore Orioles // Under 62.5 (-110)
      • Boston Red Sox // Under 85.5 (-110)
      • New York Yankees // Under 91.5 (-110)
      • Tampa Bay Rays // Over 89.5 (-115)
      • Toronto Blue Jays // Over 92.5 (-110)

      A.L. West

      Make it six straight years for the Astros to be the favorite of the division. Meanwhile other teams like Seattle and Texas have not been able to sustain the edge they had for a few seasons.
      • Houston Astros // Under 92.5 (-110)
      • Los Angeles Angels // Under 84.5 (-110)
      • Oakland Athletics // Under 69.5 (-110)
      • Seattle Mariners // Under 84.5 (-110)
      • Texas Rangers // Over 74.5 (-110)

      N.L. East

      For the first time since 2016, the Mets have the highest win total listed in the division.

      • Atlanta Braves // Under 91.5 (-110)
      • Miami Marlins // Over 76.5 (-110)
      • New York Mets // Under 88.5 (-110)
      • Philadelphia Phillies // Under 86.5 (-105)
      • Washington Nationals // Under 71.5 (-110)

      N.L. Central

      The Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t always irrelevant, but them and the Chicago Cubs have opened the door for Milwaukee and St. Louis to fight for the division.

      • Chicago Cubs // Under 75.5 (-110)
      • Cincinnati Reds // Under 74.5 (-110)
      • Milwaukee Brewers // Over 89.5 (-110)
      • Pittsburgh Pirates // Under 65.5 (-115)
      • St. Louis Cardinals // Over 84.5 (-110)

      N.L. West

      Arizona and Colorado are set up to watch the Dodgers prey all over the division… again.

      • Arizona Diamondbacks // Over 67.5 (-115)
      • Colorado Rockies // Under 68.5 (-115)
      • Los Angeles Dodgers // Over 98.5 (-105)
      • San Diego Padres // Over 90.5 (-110)
      • San Francisco Giants // Under 86.5 (-115)

      Division Winners

      AL Central: White Sox (-195) & Detroit Tigers (+800)

      AL East: Blue Jays (+170)

      AL West: Mariners (+450)

      NL Central: Cardinals (+215)

      NL East: Braves (+115)

      NL West: Dodgers (-235)

      Player Props

      Home Runs
      • A. Meadows u28.5 home runs (-110)
      • A. Judge u36.5 home runs (-110)
      • C. Seager o26.5 home runs (-110)
      • H. Renfroe o31.5 home runs (-110)
      • T. Story u26.5 home runs (-110)
      • J. Soto u34.5 home runs (-110)
      • R. Devers o37.5 home runs (-105)
      RBI’s
      • T. Hernandez o99.5 runs batted in (-110)
      • E. Suarez u98.5 runs batted in (-110)
      Strikeouts
      • A. Manoah o152.5 strikeouts (-105)
      • C. Morton u185.5 strikeouts (-110)
      • N. Eovaldi o185.5 strikeouts (-110)
      • S. Bieber o235.5 strikeouts (-110)
      Matchbets

      Season Awards

      MVP

      S. Ohtani (+350)

      K. Tucker (+2500)

      Y. Alvarez (+3000)

      X. Bogaerts (+4500)

      R. Acuna Jr (+700)

      F. Freeman (+1200)

      M. Olson (+2200)

      Cy Young

      S. Bieber (+700)

      Jose Berrios (+2000)

      C. Burnes (+750)

      W. Buehler (+900)

      M. Fried (+2200)

      A. DeSclafani (+9000)

      Rookie of the Year

      S. Torkelson (+450)

      J. Rodriguez (+500)

      R. Greene (+1500)

      S. Suzuki (+380)

      H. Greene (+750)

      S. Sanchez (+1300)

      Keep in mind the best strategy is not to bet on everything you see written here, and to always do your own research. For consistent quality sports betting content and a welcoming community, follow the Twitter accounts that contributed to this post:

      @DailyCFBCBB

      @All_TimeBets

      Odds by FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM.

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