SF -3.5

TEN just finished up a tough loss to PIT on the east coast, and has a short week traveling to the west coast to face an even more physical and technically sound football team in SF who has won five straight non-divisional games.

Reflection: An honest mistake misreading the schedule to think SF was at home. Regardless, I still probably would have taken the points. TEN came out flat as I expected but they converted off of SF turnovers and refused to give the ball up themselves which we know can determine a majority of games.

CAR +11

I know the levels of difference in skill level among these two teams, however if TB is without Godwin, Evans and potentially Fournette then CAR defense could keep them at bay, considering Brady has yet to face this CAR defense this season.

Reflection: Well TB has beaten down bad teams in the past, and Tom Brady isn’t exactly known for playing down to competition. It was dumb of me to ever bet against him, especially against a bad CAR team.

LAC -10

Despite KC throwing for over 400 yards against LAC last game, prior to that it had been an average of just 212 yards per game since their bye week in Week 7. HOU’ offense is terrible; 32nd in rushing Y/A, 30th in passing NY/A, 32nd in yards per dive, and 32nd in points per drive as well. They have beaten JAX twice this season and their other win came in a game against TEN in which they forced five turnovers and committed zero. Well played, but based on the data, that fortune will not be repeated in a game this season.

Reflection: My goodness was I wrong with this one. LAC lost outright and really just let HOU win the game. I have terrible luck when taking double digit favorites, so much so that I might not bet them anymore!

NYJ -2.5

I will fade JAX until the season is over. I have mentioned in my posts before and I stand by what I said as it hasn’t failed me yet! Dysfunctional and arguable the worst football team to be a part of the past few seasons.

Reflection: My pride and joy, only win of the slate. JAX actually should have covered this and maybe even won the game, but Trevor Lawrence spiked the ball on 3rd and goal with about 15 seconds left to only give them one play. Not anything to be concerned with, but it does pay to bet against JAX, again.

CIN -2.5 (-115)

I like betting on this number for divisional games, and CIN has an average margin of victory of 19 in their two divisional games this season. CLV has looked like a different offense without Kareem Hunt and Baker Mayfield’s shoulder issues, scoring less than 20 points in four of their last five games. CIN does have a bye this week and I’m aware of how that could affect the energy of the game, but at this point I think they’re the better team and get a 27-21 win at home.

CHI +6.5 (-110)

PIT is my favorite team, but I see holes in their offense that could get exposed in any given week. The same could be said about CHI, and because of such a high probability of a low-scoring affair, I think the spread is giving enough points to be confident in backing CHI here. They will prove to be outmatched, but 20-17 is an outcome I wouldn’t be shocked by.

MIA -5.5 (-115)

This is truly just a bet against HOU as I do think they are the worst team in the AFC, and only getting worse while trading away players like Mark Ingram. They have scored less than 10 points in four games this year, and have given up more than 30 points in five games. MIA is on a terrible seven game losing streak, but something tells me even that squad can handle HOU right now. Additionally, it’s a play on a nice number of 6.5, so a final score of 23-14 would be what you could expect.

LV -3 (+100)

The team with the most distractions and negative media mentions is looking at a favorable matchup here. They are coming off of a bye week, and NYG has it following this week. That’s worth something seeing how TB, WSH and DET all had ugly losses last week with their bye following. Additionally, LV has a sizeable advantage in many key statistics:

DAL -9.5 (-110)

DAL started the year going toe to toe with the defending champs and just found a way to beat MIN in primetime without Dak Prescott (who should be back this game). Aside from that, they sport a top three rated offense week in and week out. DEN showed the fate of their season by trading away Von Miller, and they really started slipping anyways as their defense is getting shredded on the ground which will make it hard to stop DAL’ two amazing running backs. DAL rattles off seven wins in a row, 31-21.

GB ML (+250)

GB found a way to win without star players last week, and although losing one of the best QB’s of all time and the reigning MVP is much more serious, they planned for situations like this by drafting Jordan Love (a QB) in the first round a few years ago. He will be able to run a very advanced and effective offense against the worst defense in the entire league. Anything for them will be able to work, which is similar to what could happen on the other side; Hill, Kelce and Mahomes are always capable of marching down the field in a short amount of time if defenses aren’t careful. My prediction is 31-28.

Parlay: SF, PIT, MIA, LV (+248)

Parlay: DAL, BAL, CIN, NE (+365)

ATL -3 (-110)

These two teams are trending in opposite directions, as CAR started the year with very positive offensive and defensive performances, but after losing star RB Christian McCaffrey and rookie CB Jaycee Horn, they have lost four straight games and have not covered the spread in any of them. ATL has covered three of their last four games and it’s much easier to bet on their offense right now than the dysfunctional CAR offense. CAR falls again, 26-21.

Reflection: I did not keep this bet when it was announced that Calvin Ridley was an unplanned inactive in this game and I do think that was enough for CAR to key in on who to double team and shift coverage towards. They held ATL in check but their offense did about exactly what I thought and won’t be good enough to hold up over the year.

PHI vs. DET u47.5 (-105)

I am using the same stat I did last week: DET has not scored 20+ points in six straight games. On top of that, PHI has not had many high scoring performances apart from facing KC’s problematic defense. PHI still has an inconsistent offense that scores at a bottom-10 33.2% of the time. Not sure who will win this game, but I expect the final score to be around 26-20 at the most.

Reflection: Well, DET still has not scored 20 points since their week one comeback attempt, but their defense and overall team structure is terrible, allowing PHI to have a field day scoring on both sides of the ball. A very ugly loss for DET that would have hit had they not scored garbage time points but that’s how it goes sometimes.

IND ML (+100)

Both winners of three of their last four, these two divisional rivals should be in for a tough battle. The reason I side with the technical underdog here is because they are at home and the line is suspicious, as a case could be made that TEN should be favored by much more than just one point after finishing off the two members of last years AFC Championship game in BUF and KC. Down to the wire but IND comes away 31-30.

Reflection: I wasn’t far off with my final score prediction, or the fact that it was a down to the wire game that ended in overtime. The only thing that I wasn’t right about was the winning team, as Carson Wentz through a crucial interception in overtime to give TEN the ball in scoring position.

SF -3.5 (-110)

Simply put, when CHI loses, they lose big. All four losses this year have been by two scores or more, and when they give up 100+ yards on the ground they have lost every time, and I fully expect SF to build off of five 100+ yard games already this year to control the game. Justin Fields is just not able to make plays at an NFL level right now, and SF has the defensive pieces to exploit that. SF wins 24-20.

Reflection: SF ran for over 100+ yards and that correlates to a big loss for CHI as the first half of the season has indicated. Justin Fields did look electric at times however, and if he is able to settle into a solid offensive scheme I could see him being used similar to Lamar Jackson and BAL run offense.

CIN -9.5 (-110)

CIN delivered a signature win over their toughest divisional opponent last week, and NYJ have shown no signs off life this year despite a one game wonder win against TEN. They will be without Zach Wilson and the CIN defense is among the leagues best (4th) with 5.1 yards per play allowed and have allowed just 17 points per game in their last six games. 28-16 final score.

Reflection: This was one of the bigger upsets of the year, as NYJ are a completely different team with Mike White in at QB and he earned himself a well-deserved win, scoring more than double what I thought that offense was capable of. CIN has struggled with lesser teams like CHI and NYJ this year but has shown glimpses of greatness after destroying two good division rivals in BAL/PIT.

TB vs. NO u51.5 (-110)

I don’t exactly know what to think of the NO offense after they scored just 13 points against a shaky SEA defense. Additionally, their offense is more reliant on the run game which doesn’t matchup well against TB run defense that is second in rushing yards allowed per game and third in yards per rush attempt allowed. NO is first in both categories which makes me think a slow paced game will be the likely outcome, and NO doesn’t rank high in offensive yards per play or scoring percentage. 26-20.

Reflection: The first half played right into the Under’s hands, but defensive scores and Tom Brady needing points are never what you’re rooting for in an Under game. Brady still continues against NO during his time for TB, and somehow NO offense was more effective after their starting QB got hurt which is not what anyone predicts.

Parlay: CIN, JAX, IND, NE (+1475)

6-point teaser: MIA +19.5, ARI even (-130)