NFL Same-game PARLAYS: Week 18

All odds and props provided from FanDuel Sportsbook.

PIT vs. BAL (+575):

C. Claypool o50.0 rec yards

N. Harris u71.5 rush yards

T. Huntley o50.0 rush yards

Reflection: Claypool was utilized as a runner and had 33 yards (team leader) in that category to keep his total below 50. Other two were great hits. Tough loss.

CHI vs. MIN (+1141):

D. Mooney TD Scorer

K. Cousins u249.5 pass yards

MIN ML

Reflection: Well, MIN won and D. Mooney was active. He wasn’t active in the end zone however and ultimately K. Cousins finished with exactly 250 passing yards total, .5 above the prop. We don’t talk about those though since Mooney’s ruled it out anyways!

SF vs. LAR (+724)

G. Kittle TD Scorer

M. Stafford o277.5 pass yards

E. Mitchell o68.5 rush yards

NYJ vs. BUF (+876)

M. Carter o38.5 rush yards

S. Diggs u70.5 rec yards

D. Knox TD Scorer

NFL Week 18 (final week!) Bets, Previews, and more:

Three bets this week, feeling good about all of them. It’s the last week to shake up the draft order, which will cause a new, more accurate edition of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

DAL -4.5

Rating: 3 out of 5.

PHI has been a good team throughout this season, able to control most games with their league leading rushing attack (in terms of yards and rush TD’s), and could potentially be a team to upset someone in the playoffs. With that being said, they have yet to beat a team that’s currently above .500, and DAL is the best team in the league at covering the spread (meaning they can typically handle less talented teams).

Additionally, in today’s NFL I believe the team with a better passing offense has a better chance at winning games for a variety of reasons, and DAL has the better passing QB and WR’s in this matchup.

SEA vs. ARI o47.5 (-110)

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

Russ and co. are going to want to cook one last time before a potential off-season departure for the franchise QB. A game like this could turn into a shootout and both teams have the playmakers and QB’s to make it happen.

ARI offense has hit a wall lately, but they are still one of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and SEA will have a hard time forcing turnovers against them. It also makes an over easer to bet on when SEA is dead last in offensive turnover percentage, meaning their offense production is more ‘readable’ and ‘predictive’.

LAR -4.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I know all about the dominance of SF over LAR in their past six matchups, however I think this spread is an overreaction to recent games as well as over compensating for previous head to head trends.

As many games do, the difference in this spread covering or not could come down to turnovers. Both teams commit turnovers around the same rate, however LAR defense forces turnovers at a top ten percentage (12.9%), compared to SF who is 26th (8.7%).

Parlay:

LAR, LAC (+135)

‘Sharp’ bets to keep an eye on (but not my own):

GB vs. DET u43.5 (-115)

CHI vs. MIN u44.5 (-110)

CAR vs. TB u41.5 (-110)

NO vs. ATL u40.5 (-110)

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks, Previews, Stats: 49ers, Chargers, and more

SF -3.5

Rating: 4 out of 5.

TEN just finished up a tough loss to PIT on the east coast, and has a short week traveling to the west coast to face an even more physical and technically sound football team in SF who has won five straight non-divisional games.

Reflection: An honest mistake misreading the schedule to think SF was at home. Regardless, I still probably would have taken the points. TEN came out flat as I expected but they converted off of SF turnovers and refused to give the ball up themselves which we know can determine a majority of games.

CAR +11

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

I know the levels of difference in skill level among these two teams, however if TB is without Godwin, Evans and potentially Fournette then CAR defense could keep them at bay, considering Brady has yet to face this CAR defense this season.

Reflection: Well TB has beaten down bad teams in the past, and Tom Brady isn’t exactly known for playing down to competition. It was dumb of me to ever bet against him, especially against a bad CAR team.

LAC -10

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

Despite KC throwing for over 400 yards against LAC last game, prior to that it had been an average of just 212 yards per game since their bye week in Week 7. HOU’ offense is terrible; 32nd in rushing Y/A, 30th in passing NY/A, 32nd in yards per dive, and 32nd in points per drive as well. They have beaten JAX twice this season and their other win came in a game against TEN in which they forced five turnovers and committed zero. Well played, but based on the data, that fortune will not be repeated in a game this season.

Reflection: My goodness was I wrong with this one. LAC lost outright and really just let HOU win the game. I have terrible luck when taking double digit favorites, so much so that I might not bet them anymore!

NYJ -2.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I will fade JAX until the season is over. I have mentioned in my posts before and I stand by what I said as it hasn’t failed me yet! Dysfunctional and arguable the worst football team to be a part of the past few seasons.

Reflection: My pride and joy, only win of the slate. JAX actually should have covered this and maybe even won the game, but Trevor Lawrence spiked the ball on 3rd and goal with about 15 seconds left to only give them one play. Not anything to be concerned with, but it does pay to bet against JAX, again.

NFL Week 9: Bets, Previews, Predictions:

CIN -2.5 (-115)

I like betting on this number for divisional games, and CIN has an average margin of victory of 19 in their two divisional games this season. CLV has looked like a different offense without Kareem Hunt and Baker Mayfield’s shoulder issues, scoring less than 20 points in four of their last five games. CIN does have a bye this week and I’m aware of how that could affect the energy of the game, but at this point I think they’re the better team and get a 27-21 win at home.

CHI +6.5 (-110)

PIT is my favorite team, but I see holes in their offense that could get exposed in any given week. The same could be said about CHI, and because of such a high probability of a low-scoring affair, I think the spread is giving enough points to be confident in backing CHI here. They will prove to be outmatched, but 20-17 is an outcome I wouldn’t be shocked by.

MIA -5.5 (-115)

This is truly just a bet against HOU as I do think they are the worst team in the AFC, and only getting worse while trading away players like Mark Ingram. They have scored less than 10 points in four games this year, and have given up more than 30 points in five games. MIA is on a terrible seven game losing streak, but something tells me even that squad can handle HOU right now. Additionally, it’s a play on a nice number of 6.5, so a final score of 23-14 would be what you could expect.

LV -3 (+100)

The team with the most distractions and negative media mentions is looking at a favorable matchup here. They are coming off of a bye week, and NYG has it following this week. That’s worth something seeing how TB, WSH and DET all had ugly losses last week with their bye following. Additionally, LV has a sizeable advantage in many key statistics:

StatLVNYG
NY/A7.6 (5th)6.5 (16th)
NY/A allowed5.6 (4th)6.3 (13th)
Pressure rate27% (6th)19.8% (28th)
Points per drive2.25 (15th)1.72 (24th)

DAL -9.5 (-110)

DAL started the year going toe to toe with the defending champs and just found a way to beat MIN in primetime without Dak Prescott (who should be back this game). Aside from that, they sport a top three rated offense week in and week out. DEN showed the fate of their season by trading away Von Miller, and they really started slipping anyways as their defense is getting shredded on the ground which will make it hard to stop DAL’ two amazing running backs. DAL rattles off seven wins in a row, 31-21.

StatDENDAL
Pressure rate30.7% (32nd)15.4% (3rd)
Yards per play5.5 (19th)6.5 (T-1st)
Yards per play allowed5.4 (10th)6.1 (27th)
Turnover rate9.9% (20th)17.5% (3rd)

GB ML (+250)

GB found a way to win without star players last week, and although losing one of the best QB’s of all time and the reigning MVP is much more serious, they planned for situations like this by drafting Jordan Love (a QB) in the first round a few years ago. He will be able to run a very advanced and effective offense against the worst defense in the entire league. Anything for them will be able to work, which is similar to what could happen on the other side; Hill, Kelce and Mahomes are always capable of marching down the field in a short amount of time if defenses aren’t careful. My prediction is 31-28.

Parlay: SF, PIT, MIA, LV (+248)

Parlay: DAL, BAL, CIN, NE (+365)

NFL Week 8: Bets, Previews, Predictions: Falcons, Colts, Bengals and more

ATL -3 (-110)

These two teams are trending in opposite directions, as CAR started the year with very positive offensive and defensive performances, but after losing star RB Christian McCaffrey and rookie CB Jaycee Horn, they have lost four straight games and have not covered the spread in any of them. ATL has covered three of their last four games and it’s much easier to bet on their offense right now than the dysfunctional CAR offense. CAR falls again, 26-21.

Reflection: I did not keep this bet when it was announced that Calvin Ridley was an unplanned inactive in this game and I do think that was enough for CAR to key in on who to double team and shift coverage towards. They held ATL in check but their offense did about exactly what I thought and won’t be good enough to hold up over the year.

PHI vs. DET u47.5 (-105)

I am using the same stat I did last week: DET has not scored 20+ points in six straight games. On top of that, PHI has not had many high scoring performances apart from facing KC’s problematic defense. PHI still has an inconsistent offense that scores at a bottom-10 33.2% of the time. Not sure who will win this game, but I expect the final score to be around 26-20 at the most.

Reflection: Well, DET still has not scored 20 points since their week one comeback attempt, but their defense and overall team structure is terrible, allowing PHI to have a field day scoring on both sides of the ball. A very ugly loss for DET that would have hit had they not scored garbage time points but that’s how it goes sometimes.

IND ML (+100)

Both winners of three of their last four, these two divisional rivals should be in for a tough battle. The reason I side with the technical underdog here is because they are at home and the line is suspicious, as a case could be made that TEN should be favored by much more than just one point after finishing off the two members of last years AFC Championship game in BUF and KC. Down to the wire but IND comes away 31-30.

Reflection: I wasn’t far off with my final score prediction, or the fact that it was a down to the wire game that ended in overtime. The only thing that I wasn’t right about was the winning team, as Carson Wentz through a crucial interception in overtime to give TEN the ball in scoring position.

SF -3.5 (-110)

Simply put, when CHI loses, they lose big. All four losses this year have been by two scores or more, and when they give up 100+ yards on the ground they have lost every time, and I fully expect SF to build off of five 100+ yard games already this year to control the game. Justin Fields is just not able to make plays at an NFL level right now, and SF has the defensive pieces to exploit that. SF wins 24-20.

Reflection: SF ran for over 100+ yards and that correlates to a big loss for CHI as the first half of the season has indicated. Justin Fields did look electric at times however, and if he is able to settle into a solid offensive scheme I could see him being used similar to Lamar Jackson and BAL run offense.

CIN -9.5 (-110)

CIN delivered a signature win over their toughest divisional opponent last week, and NYJ have shown no signs off life this year despite a one game wonder win against TEN. They will be without Zach Wilson and the CIN defense is among the leagues best (4th) with 5.1 yards per play allowed and have allowed just 17 points per game in their last six games. 28-16 final score.

Reflection: This was one of the bigger upsets of the year, as NYJ are a completely different team with Mike White in at QB and he earned himself a well-deserved win, scoring more than double what I thought that offense was capable of. CIN has struggled with lesser teams like CHI and NYJ this year but has shown glimpses of greatness after destroying two good division rivals in BAL/PIT.

TB vs. NO u51.5 (-110)

I don’t exactly know what to think of the NO offense after they scored just 13 points against a shaky SEA defense. Additionally, their offense is more reliant on the run game which doesn’t matchup well against TB run defense that is second in rushing yards allowed per game and third in yards per rush attempt allowed. NO is first in both categories which makes me think a slow paced game will be the likely outcome, and NO doesn’t rank high in offensive yards per play or scoring percentage. 26-20.

Reflection: The first half played right into the Under’s hands, but defensive scores and Tom Brady needing points are never what you’re rooting for in an Under game. Brady still continues against NO during his time for TB, and somehow NO offense was more effective after their starting QB got hurt which is not what anyone predicts.

Parlay: CIN, JAX, IND, NE (+1475)

6-point teaser: MIA +19.5, ARI even (-130)

NFL Week 7: Bets, Stats, Previews: Bengals vs. Ravens, Panthers vs. Giants and more

CAR -3 (-102)

I’m taking another FG favorite, and this time the biggest mismatch will be the CAR defense against the NYG offense. CAR ranks near the top in categories such as yards per play (5.2), scoring percentage (29.3%) and points per drive (1.68). Meanwhile, the NYG offense has 5.6 yards per play, 35.4% scoring and 1.74 points per drive. If it wasn’t for a OT win against NO, NYG would be winless on the season, and they’ll be without Saquon Barkley in this game who scored twice against NO in that upset.

Reflection: Sam Darnold is not a good NFL quarterback, and the CAR defense was massively inflated due to their easy schedule to start the season. NYG still aren’t a good football team, but I have bet on CAR twice this season and both times they have looked terrible.

CIN +6.5 (-110)

I am betting against a BAL team that outscored CIN a combined 65-6 in the two games last year, but the beginning of this season shows a much improved CIN defense that is able to give the offense enough opportunities to hit their home runs. The BAL offense is among the most dominant in the league, but there can be weaknesses in their pass rush and secondary on the other side of the ball. The only common opponent among the two this year is winless DET, and CIN handled them with much more ease than BAL did. I think the divisional underdog keeps it within a field goal, perhaps something like a 30-27 loss.

Reflection: Probably not a final score many saw coming, but CIN looks to be the real deal. The offense is fully capable of scoring with the best of them and the defense has been among the leagues most surprising this season. BAL didn’t put up much of a fight and now the AFC North looks open for potentially every team.

WSH vs. GB o48.5 (-110)

So far these two teams average out to surpass this total in their games’ combined scores this season. WSH does have enough of an offensive attack to put points on the board, but it has been their poor defense that has caused such high game totals. Their opponents average well over 30 points per game in their last five, and this GB team still has Rodgers and Adams at home where they continue to take care of the football and convert drives into points. Not quite a shootout, but a reasonable score could be 31-20 and we’ll take that.

Reflection: GB did their part, they scored when they had the chance thanks to Aaron Rodgers and company, but WSH was not able to do anything on offense despite GB being without four defensive starters. The WSH defense has not lived up to the hype coming into the season and perhaps their offense is feeling the weight of having a backup take all the snaps under center.

PHI vs. LV u49.0 (-110)

PHI has a very inconsistent offense, scoring on a relatively low 33.8% of their drives. On defense though, PHI has shined more than I expected. Against some of the best offenses (KC, TB, DAL) they broke down, but they have four straight games with a turnover and have not allowed 300+ yards passing in any game yet this year. LV will be looking to throw the ball more often than run, as they have only ran for 100+ yards once this year. I predict a teeter totter game ending somewhere along the lines of 27-20.

Reflection: I was right about the PHI offense, it is extremely inconsistent and they were out of this game before they even got their footing. LV has dealt with plenty of distractions in recent weeks but they showed up against a decent PHI defense and put up 33 points. A garbage time TD prevented this from going under and that has been PHI motto all year.

DET vs. LAR u50.5 (-110)

Forget about Jared Goff’s “revenge game”, DET hasn’t cracked 20 points in five straight games. We all know what the LAR offense is capable of; they own the first rated passing attack in the league at 8.6 NY/A. Couple that with going against the worst pass defense in the league in DET and this could become a very lopsided game, leading to a lot of bleeding clock and unmotivated drives. This game shouldn’t be close, no matter how you stack the pieces. Final score around the likes of 30-17.

Reflection: DET still hasn’t scored 20+ points in any of their last six games, despite showing some trick plays to get a head start early in this game. LAR are as good as any team in the league when they’re firing on all cylinders, and it was nice to see that their offense didn’t have a huge field day in terms of scoring points against a troublesome DET defense.

NFL Bets – Week 6: Predictions, Odds, Preview: Chargers, Bills, Browns and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

Underdogs

LAC +3.5 (-115)

A very exciting matchup between two of the best young QBs is going to result in Justin Herbert throwing well over 300 yards. In games against above average offenses, BAL has allowed an average of 381 passing yards per game while not showing any signs of having a typical dominant BAL defense. Meanwhile, the LAC have better showings against common opponents in LV and KC.

Favorites

DAL -3.5 (-112)

This DAL offense should have frequent opportunities to score points given how they average 6.5 yards per play despite the NE defense being among the stingiest this year (5.1 yards per play). I don’t like the NE track record of rookie/unproven QB’s and the one QB that Bill Belichick knows better than anyone else. DAL rolls this one and keeps their momentum.

BUF -5.5 (-110)

Am I the only one wondering why this line is not higher around 8 or 9? On the year, BUF’ margin of victory is 29 points! TEN defense has had issues at times throughout this season but has found a way to limit the points they’ve allowed. However, giving up 6.1 yards per play against Josh Allen and his squad that average 6.0 per play is a recipe for disaster, especially considering the insanely low yards per play (4.3) and points allowed per drive (1.0) by the BUF defense.

Totals

MIN vs. CAR u47.5 (-110)

CAR started the season with three straight games of 33 total points and has gone under 47.5 points in all but one game (DAL). MIN is on a three game streak of going under 47.5 points and that couples well with how their offense is not set up to be a super explosive one but rather a consistent and balanced approach averaging a moderate 5.7 yards per play. There may be holes in that CAR defense as evident against DAL, but when the offense is able to hold onto the football they generally take a good amount of time off the clock in doing so.

SEA vs. PIT u42.5 (-115)

This primetime matchup could be a whole lot of nothing. Replacing Russell Wilson will make it hard enough to score 20+ points, and the PIT defense should be getting a few starting bodies back to beef up their fifth best 28.6% pressure rate. The PIT offense got going (kinda) last week, but it’s still a bottom five offense in my NFL model, so with just a couple of wasted possessions they might be falling short of 20+ points as well.

Parlay: GB, JAX, BUF +425

Anytime TD Scorer:

NFL Week 5 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Bills, Rams and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from given my ranking system, not to achieve a high profit margin (yet).

UNDERDOGS:

CIN +3 (-110)

My ranking system likes CIN, and the eye test really likes Joe Burrow. With him at QB, the offense runs like a well oiled machine most of the time, similar to Aaron Rodgers and GB. Surprisingly, the CIN defense ranks in the top five in points per drive, points per 100 yards, yards per play and has the third lowest scoring percentage allowed. That could prove to be the difference maker in this one.

BUF ML (+130)

It’s crazy for me to phantom betting against the combo of Mahomes + Reid, however anytime I can get a moneyline price this good for a super bowl contender, I might as well take it. Especially when the KC defense is among the worst in the league and we all know what the BUF offense is capable of (top five in scoring percentage, 3 straight dominant performances and last years MVP runner up).

SF +5.5 (-110)

ARI has been the best team in football this year according to the eye test, my model, and by record. But, this is a tough divisional opponent that will have the ability to neutralize some of ARI weapons on offense. These defenses are rated almost identical in my model, and if Trey Lance’ running ability can keep Kyler Murray off of the field, SF will have an easier time getting through this one.

TOTALS:

CHI vs. LV u44.5 (-110)

With CHI having such abysmal passing numbers this year and LV actually holding their ground through the air, I don’t expect many explosive plays or even much consistent offense in this one. CHI does have the defensive personnel to stifle Derek Carr similar to what LAC did to him last week and if that happens an under could very well be in play.

GB vs CIN o50.5 (-110)

Both of these defenses have played above expectations at times this year, but I do believe these two offenses have great leaders under center that can lead to a high 20’s scoring affair. CIN defense has well above average defense ratings (4th best overall), but facing Aaron Rodgers is a different task than Big Ben or rookie Trevor Lawrence.

NO vs. WFT u43.5 (-110)

Neither defense played up to their potential last week with brutal showings that resulted in a loss. However, NO hasn’t proved they totally can totally score at will with Jameis yet and although Heinecke has posted solid stats this year, I think this NO defense that ranks near the top in many categories can cause WFT to resort to their rushing attack and shorten the game.

FAVORITES:

LAR ML (-134)

I bet on LAR last week and it ended up being the wrong read, so surely this week they find their way back to the win column. LAR holds a pretty decent edge on SEA in my overall rankings, and on a per drive basis their defense is almost a half point better. I’m also still confident that Matt Stafford makes this LAR offense one of the most dangerous in the league (they are rated #1 in my rankings).

CAR ML (-188)*

This is near the most I’ll ever lay down for a straight moneyline bet at -188. CAR has the type of defense that will win them games from that unit alone. They were picked apart last week but they are a half point better than PHI on a points per drive basis, as well as a full yard better in yards per play. CAR is easy to have confidence in for this matchup considering the common opponent played in back to back weeks didn’t give them as hard of a time as they did PHI.

*If RB McCaffrey is playing

LV -5.5 (-110)

Without David Montgomery, CHI could be without their most reliable and consistent form of offense through the first four games of the season. CHI has the lowest passing NY/A in the NFL at just 3.9, and the LV defense allows the fourth lowest NY/A at just 5.5. Overall there is nearly a 25 point difference in my rating system which shows that LV should have a major upper hand throughout the game.

PARLAY: DAL, CAR, TEN +222

NFL Week 4 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Patriots, Rams, Browns and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.

UNDERDOGS:

NE +7 (-110)

Yep, I am betting on the Patriot way to get it done against what many consider the favorites to repeat as champions. According to my advanced ranking system, these two teams are actually neck and neck with each other, and NE even has the slight edge due to their top five defense and TB falling pretty flat on defense the first three games.

DET ML (+130)

The second worst rated team in my model is CHI, trailing only the saddening NYJ. While DET hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, they rate just below league average on offense and will roll out a far better offensive line and quarterback group. DET has the worst rated defense, but I’ve seen the CHI offense in action and it might not be too hard to scheme up a few stops against them when they need it.

DEN ML (+100)

I know this isn’t traditionally an underdog, but BAL sits at a heftier moneyline price at -112 so technically it is an underdog in regards to the matchup. The two offenses have around the same statistical ranking this season, and while DEN is rated as the second best defense, BAL is way behind as the fifth worst.

TOTALS:

CLV vs. MIN o51.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses are top ten in the league when fully healthy when factoring successful play rate, explosive play rate, points per drive and offense scoring percentage. MIN defense has not proven that they’ll be able to slow down this juggernaut CLV offense, and as always the trio of Jefferson, Theilen and Cook can score a few times each game if all goes well.

NYG vs. NO u42.5 (-110)

NYG is beat up on offense, which will make it even harder to score and gain yardage on a top five total defense. On the year NYG has a pretty low explosive play rate at 8%, and the NO defense is sixth in yards per play at 4.7. The NO offense hasn’t necessarily shattered the stat sheet, as they have allowed a very high pressure rate (31.3%) and are bottom five in yards per play (4.3) as well as net yards per passing attempt (4.8).

HOU vs. BUF o47 (-110)

BUF has proven that they are capable of scoring 30+ points on a good defense, and although HOU is onto their backup rookie QB, the game script in this game could play in favor of an over set relatively low.

FAVORITES:

LAR -4 (-115)

Kyler Murray does not have any career success against LAR as they’ve held him to just a 75.8 rating with 11 sacks, 5 TD’s and 4 INT. They’ve also limited him as a rushing threat with just a 3.54 Y/A in 13 carries. The LAR look like a freight train that can’t be stopped, and their defense looks like it can hang with anyone. I’ll ride them to cover or at least win until something tells me otherwise.

NO -7 (-110)

NYG could be without many of their offensive weapons, which as I alluded to earlier could make it much harder for them to crack one of the best defenses in the league up to this point of the season. NO was ranked very high last season and has many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball, however I still think Jameis Winston is capable of managing this team to some impressive looking wins (as he already has twice).

GB -6.5 (-115)

Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL have been trending in opposite directions. PIT maintains a defensive advantage in this matchup with TJ Watt returning to the field, but statistically GB isn’t far behind. The reason to take the favorite here though is the differences in offense. There is a very clear and significant difference in the efficiency and effectiveness of both offenses, as PIT sits as the second worst offense in successful play rate with marginally lower yards per play and net yards per pass attempt numbers.

PARLAY: DET, CLV, WFT +660

NFL Week 3 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Colts, Broncos, Patriots & more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 12 picks and a parlay. The 12 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs, totals and player props. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.

UNDERDOGS:

IND +5.5 (-110)

This big of a spread between divisional opponents seems like too much in this spot. Both teams are towards the bottom of the league in terms of statistical performance so far this year, and I think there’s enough flaws in the TEN defense (surprise surprise) to keep them from pulling away in this game. Keep in mind that IND kept it within a field goal against the clear cut #1 team right now in LAR.

CIN +3 (-110)

PIT does not have the best two game highlight reel, and the advanced ranking system backs that up. CIN actually holds a slight ranking advantage, which could be foreshadowing a close divisional game that might not involve as many explosive plays to allow for separation. It also doesn’t help that PIT is missing a couple of very important pieces to their team like their best WR.

LAC +7 (-115)

KC has played with fire their last three games, and has paid the price in two of them. Given this years advanced ranking system, KC is not the AFC juggernaut due to their poor defensive play (which could be because they’ve played two of the best offensive teams in the league to start the season) and LAC is just two spots behind them, thanks to their . Yet another divisional underdog I’m taking to cover the spread.

TOTALS:

NYJ vs. DEN o41.5 (-110)

The Jets are terrible, and will give up more than three touchdowns to this Broncos team. This total is set low, but I do think that there will be scoring opportunities for the Jets, as DEN ranks in the bottom of the league in defensive pressure percentage so far. It might not take much for this over to hit, given the low starting value.

NO vs. NE u42.5 (-110)

A great matchup between two of the best coaches the past 10-15 years. Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive pressure percentage and defensive yards per play, and to give me more confidence in the under, both teams are in the bottom 10 of offensive yards per play. Two great defenses with QB’s that might get tested is a recipe for the under.

TB vs. LAR u54.5 (-110)

The LAR defense that was the best in the league last year looks ready to return to that status. They’re well above average in every ranking statistic, and they still have an unstoppable force in Aaron Donald. At the same time, Brady was sacked three times last week against ATL. The game of the week shouldn’t feature all the fireworks we come to expect from these two teams. Here’s a preview on YouTube.

FAVORITES:

SF -3 (-115)

Per my ranking system, this is a huge mismatch in favor of SF. They have given Rodgers a hard time in recent years, and the way they can control the field position and pace of this game gives them the upper hand against GB, who through two weeks this season looks like there are some serious concerns. A win against DET does not convince me otherwise, especially when they were going toe to toe throughout the first half.

SEA ML (-125)

In case it isn’t already clear, Russell Wilson is a generational talent. It’s hard to go against him, especially in the first half of the season. The MIN offense has looked like it will go blow for blow with anyone in the league, but they have relied more on explosive plays rather than consistent yardage. SEA averages the most yards per play and is top six in points per drive and offensive success rate, oh they also have a bit of an explosive combination in Wilson and Lockett.

LV -3.5 (-110)

The surprise to start the season has been LV after upsetting the Ravens and Steelers in back to back games. MIA got bullied by one division opponent, and snuck by another with QB making his first ever NFL start. Rankings have this as a major mismatch, and I always trust the better QB to cover the spread when facing a backup.

PARLAY: BAL, LV, CLV, KC +228

PLAYER PROPS:

Jonathan Taylor rush attempts o15.5 (-108)

Jared Goff passing yards o262.5 (-114)

Robert Woods receiving yards o62.5 (-114)

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