NFL QB Power Rankings: Week 11 – Statistical Data Model

To save time and debate, I created an objective answer to who the best QB in the NFL is right now. Below is the statistical ratings for each QB, and the categories/weights used to conduct the data analysis. For a more detailed and custom view, download the file below the embedded ratings.

The following chart illustrates the statistical relationship between variables and Win %, an important dependent variable in this case. These insights give us reason to use EPA, QBR, ANY/A, PFF grade and Passer Rating in our data model to measure QB performance.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society

While measuring the relationship to wins in the same season is valuable, identifying the relationship to predict future season data is extremely relevant in this case. This gives us ideas for the weight of each category (which can always be adjusted), and PFF grade should clearly be the highest. Followed by a substantial gap with EPA and ANY/A and finished off with QBR and Passer Rating.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society. *The r-squared values are low, as the r-squared value for win% and next season win% is really low at .07. Football is hard to predict.

The data will be collected from Pro Football Reference (Passer Rating, QBR, ANY/A), PFF (PFF Grades), and ESPN (EPA).

The TRUTH Behind ‘Featured’ Parlays or ‘Super Boosts’ on Sports Betting Apps

In the past two weeks, there was 61 total ‘boosted’ parlays across these major sportsbooks; BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars and Barstool. 55 of those boosted parlays lost.

Now, we will acknowledge the odds of these parlays, because even though some of them are boosted, they are still relatively low probability bets. Given the data imported and scraped from Sports Betting Dime, we see that the average odds for these parlays was +522.38.

If a user of these major sportsbook placed $10 on each of these parlays over the two weeks, that unlucky user would have lost $416.98, with a return on investment of -216.03%.

These shocking insights would suggest a strategy to identify what the boosts are for specific games, and pinpoint if there are any individual markets to target a ‘fade’ of these boosted parlays. The sportsbooks offer these ‘boosts’ and ‘promotions’ for a reason!

Here is a copy of the scraped data and calcuations:

    March Madness: Comparing Seeds, Analyzing Statistics with Kenpom.com

    Deciding who to pick in each game of a 67-game tournament is exceedingly difficult, but I have created an interactive dashboard that displays offense and defense efficiency for each tournament team. I highly recommend checking it out near the end (it’s FREE).

    You can use this tool to decide which teams could be on upset alert, which games are evenly matched, and/or which top tier teams have what it takes to win it all. By being able to filter based on team, the analysis possibilities are endless with this dashboard.

    To use, simply scroll below, select two or more teams from the left-side filter, and interpret the data shown on the graph. Here is an example of what can be done, viewing the top five teams according to kenpom.com:

    This unique comparison likely won’t be needed until the final four, however it’s still evident that Gonzaga & Arizona are not just among the best with their offense, they run their offenses extremely fast. Remember, higher score is better for offense, but lower score is better for defense, similar to an actual basketball game. That would indicate how dominant Gonzaga has been – their gap between offense and defense is noticeably wider than anyone else in the top five, so they’d be able to match the pace of Arizona while limiting more of their opportunities.

    (Keep in mind it looks messy at first until you select two teams. To select multiple teams on Windows, hold ‘control’ as you select each team. On Mac, hold ‘command’ as you select each team. On mobile, swipe each team name box to the right (towards the graph) to add to the visual.

    Now, try it for yourself!

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