Category: Football

NFL Draft Prospects and Their Pro Player Comparisons

The goal for these comparisons is to match the play style and abilities of 2023 NFL draft prospects to an NFL player known for those play styles and abilities, the goal is NOT to predict a career or definitively compare between players . I’ve formed the comparisons after watching regular season games, reviewing scouting reports and dialing up a YouTube highlight video or two.

QB

  • Bryce Young — Joe Burrow
    • 6’0 height
    • Escapeability in the pocket, but not a runner
    • Pinpoint accuracy
    • Dominated in the SEC, Heisman winners
  • Will Levis — Matthew Stafford
    • Ideal arm talent
    • Big body, harder to tackle
    • Good experience running plays under center, play action
  • C.J. Stroud — Geno Smith
    • Makes quick decisions in the pocket
    • Doesn’t rely on mobility
    • Ball placement gives receivers a chance
  • Anthony Richardson — Justin Fields
    • Off the charts athleticism
    • Strong natural arm
    • Playmaker
  • Hendon Hooker — Derek Carr
    • Able to identify open WR’s
    • Comfortable in the pocket
    • Average NFL arm strength
  • Tanner McKee — Jared Goff
    • Excels in timing/rhythm plays
    • Longer release in throwing motion
    • Tall, durable physique

WR

  • Quentin Johnston — Kyle Pitts
    • Athletic build that translates on field
    • Strong after the catch
  • Rashee Rice — A.J. Brown
    • Strong frame to win contested battles
    • Elusive and determined after the catch
  • Jordan Addison — Chris Olave
    • Excellent route runners
    • Elusive and electric with the ball
    • Similar physique (height/catch radius)
  • Jaxson Smith-Njigba — Jarvis Landry
    • Playmaker from the slot
    • Natural feel for open zones of the field
  • Josh Downs — Tyler Lockett
    • Versatile athlete
    • Same physique (height)
    • Great in contested catch situations
  • Jalin Hyatt — Jaylen Waddle
    • Fast, long strides that leads to separation

RB

  • Bijan Robinson — Austin Ekeler/Miles Sanders
    • Powerful lower half with contact balance
    • Receiving threat
    • Understands running lanes
  • Jahmyr Gibbs — Chrisitan McCaffrey
    • Electric kick / punt returner
    • Quick feet and acceleration to make defenders miss
    • Excellent receiving & route running
  • Devon Achane — Alvin Kamara
    • Off the charts balance / flexibility
    • Same forward leaning running style

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Monday Mock Draft: Pittsburgh Steelers

Team needs & why:

OT

  • 2nd lowest total spending on OL in NFL
  • Run game to the left is poor
  • Build from the trenches

CB

  • Defensive scheme thrives with lockdown corners
  • Every CB is only under contract through 2024 or sooner
  • Deep CB draft class

DL

  • Alualu, Wormley, Heyward all 30+ years old
  • Defensive scheme needs deep rotation
  • Build from the trenches

First idea:

WR is not the biggest need, so this will upset some people despite getting an uber talented athlete that compliments Pickens’ playstyle on the outside. The rest of these picks are to beef up the trenches, and that will surely excite fans who haven’t seen a ton of investment on those positions recently.

Second Idea:

CB is one of the most volatile positions on any given team (especially PIT), so investing in two at the position seems reasonable given the shaky draft track record of PIT and CB’s. Torrence could fill in nicely at left guard almost immediately, and it seems that inside LB needs to be addressed as well.

Third Idea:

Draft the best overall player available, taking physical attributes, positional value and potential productivity into consideration.

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NFL Bets – Week 5

JAX -7.5 (-110)

JAX played well at the start of last weeks game, however I still think of them as JAX, and I had this spread closer to a field goal than a touchdown. If Vegas is confident that the collapse against PHI was due to weather/circumstance then I will follow their lead. HOU is one of the ‘young but fun and bad’ teams that are fun to watch and easy to bet with or against because it’s good entertainment regardless.

NO -4.5 (-110)

I for sure thought SEA would be favored in this game, considering NO played a long game across the sea, literally. But also because G. Smith has been the highest rated QB this season, and he looks to be in complete control of an actual dynamic offense! I didn’t think Vegas would lay more than a field goal in NO favor here, and I even had SEA favored in this one, so I got to side with a sizable win for NO due to understanding the betting markets/lines.

NE -2.5 (-110)

I don’t know the status of M. Jones, but if he is not able to return for this game I am unsure of why NE is favored to be quite honest. DET moves the ball and scores at will, better than anyone else in the entire NFL! I’m sure the NE defense will slow them down, however originally I didn’t think NE had the passing game to attack DET big secondary weakness. Seeing the line in favor of NE makes me want to have a stake in this one, and I don’t typically have a problem betting Bill Belichick as an underdog.

NYJ+3.5 (-110)

The loss of Tua is a huge one for the NFL and especially for MIA, but I still thought they looked good without him and have plenty of pieces throughout the roster to absorb his lost. Especially against a team as bad as NYJ, I thought they could still cover by at least a touchdown. However, Vegas thinks otherwise and I am not one to go against their expertise, so the close line tells me to side with the team that I don’ expect to put up a great fight.

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Free NFL Bets – Week 4

CIN -3.5 (-110)

I know MIA is taking the world by storm right now, and rightfully so. Tua has been the second highest rated QB this season, and the duo of Waddle + Hill is impossible to contain. But, for some reason, Vegas has set the line more than a FG favorite toward CIN, so they know something that I don’t! Could be a hangover week for MIA.

Reflection: All the concern should be on Tua after this game, he never deserved to be in that spot. CIN covered and looked like the more rested, put together team but it was hard to celebrate this one. (He appears to be recovering nicely and not in serious pain anymore so good for him, we can celebrate a bit more knowing that).

BAL +3.5 (-110)

BAL has the highest rated QB this season in Lamar Jackson, leading an offense that he’s always been capable of scoring 30+ points with per game. BUF seems like the team to beat in the AFC, despite their loss down in MIA without all their secondary starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see crazy good QB numbers in this game, but the fact again here is the line is set more in BAL favor than I would have anticipated, so I am leaning on them having a good outing against a great AFC contender.

Reflection: Well it was almost an outright win for BAL, but the hook play is beautiful here and they lose by a field goal, so we win the bet! They got off to a fast start but teetered off towards the end, some questionable decisions may have been the deciding factor for them, but BUF proves to have fight in them and ability to execute a comeback with help from all sides of the ball.

ATL ML (+110)

CLE has shown to be a decent football team despite playing with their backup QB. Truth be told (look at the linked QB rankings), J. Brissett has played better than most other QB’s in the league! ATL is one of those ‘fun, but young and bad’ teams, which I think gives them a chance to put a few plays together that are enough to change the outcome of this one. Too close of a line when I think CLE clearly has the better roster/coach/scheme combination.

Reflection: Down to the wire and a really good matchup as predicted by Vegas, I was happy to be on the right side of this game. ATL were the underdogs still, but not by nearly as much as I thought they should be, and they managed to get off to a good start and ride that to a strong finish.

JAX ML (+220)

Eh, PHI could be the best team in the entire NFL (not enough conclusive evidence yet), but JAX has really turned some heads the past two weeks with incredible performances on both sides of the ball. Maybe there’s something to be said about D. Pederson coaching against PHI, where he won a super bowl. Or, maybe this is one of those games that the decision making and playmaking ability of T. Lawrence & J. Hurts will determine the outcome. I like juiced up underdogs like this, but never thought it would be JAX against a team as hot and loaded as PHI. Here goes nothing!

Reflection: It looked really good for about a quarter and a half, but then the turnover bug bit T. Lawrence numerous times (NFL record four lost fumbles) and they failed to do much of anything after that. PHI showed to be a good team, able to withstand a punch or two and come from behind. Made plays when they needed to and responded well over 60 minutes.

CAR ML (-120)

This is mostly a fade ARI play, because K. Murray is somewhat ineffective without playmaking WR’s (Hopkins/Kirk) and pass-catching RB’s (Edmonds). I don’t like betting to favor CAR, but I think this is another instance where I would have set the line probably -2.5 ARI, so it’s off enough for me to realize I’m not totally analyzing it correctly and someone with lots of information thinks CAR has an advantage.

Reflection: I said it in my write up above, but I hate betting to back CAR. There’s enough stats out there to reveal how bad of an offense they’ve had under Matt Rhule, but I’ll say they will definitely be on my do not bet list going forward. A mess all around that I don’t want to be a part of for now!

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NFL QB Power Rankings: Week 18 – Statistical Data Model

To save time and debate, I created an objective answer to who the best QB in the NFL is right now. Below is the statistical ratings for each QB, and the categories/weights used to conduct the data analysis. For a more detailed and custom view, download the file below the embedded ratings.

NFL QB ModelDownload

The following chart illustrates the statistical relationship between variables and Win %, an important dependent variable in this case. These insights give us reason to use EPA, QBR, ANY/A, PFF grade and Passer Rating in our data model to measure QB performance.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society

While measuring the relationship to wins in the same season is valuable, identifying the relationship to predict future season data is extremely relevant in this case. This gives us ideas for the weight of each category (which can always be adjusted), and PFF grade should clearly be the highest. Followed by a substantial gap with EPA and ANY/A and finished off with QBR and Passer Rating.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society. *The r-squared values are low, as the r-squared value for win% and next season win% is really low at .07. Football is hard to predict.

The data will be collected from Pro Football Reference (Passer Rating, QBR, ANY/A), PFF (PFF Grades), and ESPN (EPA).

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NFL Free Bets: Week 3

MIA ML (+190)

BUF has steamrolled the competition in their last 16 wins, all of them coming by double digits or more. However, I think there’s something to be said about divisional opponents on the road, especially when MIA has the two fastest WR’s in the league. BUF just lost M. Hyde, a great safety that will surely cause some steps backward in their secondary. There was enough juice here to pull the trigger.

Reflection: Quite the game battled in the heat of Miami, but in the end this value paid off big time! The loss of starters on defense may have cost BUF just a few extra big plays that allowed MIA to take the lead and hold off the offense for just a few drives. MIA remains undefeated.

CAR ML (+116)

Carolina is a really bad football team with really bad coaches, but I can’t shake the feeling that NO should be favored by more in this game, with the better roster nearly top to bottom. That always tells me that Vegas knows something! And again, this is a road divisional opponent…

Reflection: CAR took control from the start and really never lost it. NO and Jameis look like they’re going down a road of many losses and questionable outcomes. CAR didn’t look too good either, and as a CMC fantasy owner, I’d love for him to catch some more passes.

MIN -6 (-110)

DET has been one of the surprising teams this year, especially offensively. This is a game that I feel like the spread should be closer to 3.5 rather than 6, so I see Vegas’ anticipating something happening and want to get on board with that. DET can run the ball against anyone, I just question if they’ll have any answer to MIN offense.

Reflection: Despite winning by more than a field goal, MIN failed to cover the points laid to them this week. DET controlled the first half of this game, J. Goff looked like Brady and MIN was stalling on offense for about an hour. Per usual though, DET defense broke down and the offense didn’t have the dynamic ability to get into a shootout on command. They kept it close until one of the last plays and looked like a good team for a good portion of this game.

CIN -6 (-110)

With a rough start to the year, CIN is not looking to lose to NYJ like they did last season. Burrow is going to be under pressure a lot this year as we have seen, however I don’t think NYJ has the defensive scheme/talent to capitalize as much as teams like PIT and DAL did. I expect them to respond positively in this game and win convincingly.

Reflection: CIN pounced all over NYJ, as I predicted here. The WR trio of Higgins, Chase and Boyd is the best in the league, and the NYJ offense has always been a mess as long as I can remember. CIN capitalized on costly penalties but also were dominant in making plays on the ball and attacking strengths/weaknesses in a strategic way.

CHI vs. HOU under 39.5 (-114)

These two teams will be near the bottom offensively when it’s all said and done, so I have no problem taking an under, especially when it’s set this low. CHI style of offense will drain the clock without putting too many points on the board, and hopefully their defense has a better matchup than against GB last week.

Reflection: Both offenses looked like they can run the ball decently, however they got off to a relatively fast scoring start and cruised past this total. I still think the under in most CHI games are a good play, along with PIT and DEN.

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NFL Free Bets – Week 2

MIA +3.5 (-110)

T. Hill and J. Waddle are a perfect compliment to a great running scheme. BAL is susceptible to the run, and might not have the manpower to go one on one with MIA top guys. Phins keep it close to the ugly birds.

Reflection: An offensive performance I doubt anyone predicted, Tua and MIA won outright against BAL thanks to his 5 TD passes and an incredible comeback. Lamar was nearly perfect but the BAL defense really stunk it up to hand MIA a comeback win.

NYG -2.5 (-110)

Offensively, NYG looks like they have the talent to put up some crooked numbers, especially on the ground. Given the problems CAR just had against the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. Saquon can burst at any time!!

Reflection: A game as boring as it looked on paper, managed to play out exactly how Vegas wanted it to. NYG and CAR kept the game close the entire time and a massive FG won it late. Defenses played well, particularly CAR, who just couldn’t manage to win the time of possession due to turnovers.

NYJ ML (+210)

CLE has a good rushing attack, just like BAL did before the Jets played great against that area. This game could come down to a field goal at the last second.

Reflection: I’m going to continue betting moneyline underdogs when I think they got a chance! CLE played well but really just let NYJ back in the game, and they just kept feeding their two-headed RB monster as well as the young stud G. Wilson. A. Cooper was a force for CLE, even without a star QB, and Chubb/Hunt duo did what they will likely do every week.

TB ML (-155)

Gotta be a trap, because Tom Brady can have an offense comfortably control a game despite not playing well. NO have dominated him though, so don’t be surprised if they figure out a way to slow him down or keep him off the field (even better).

Reflection: Tom Brady is the best person to bet on ever, I’m pretty sure that would be a correct statistic but that’s also my personal experience. I am 5-0 when betting on TB12.

SEA +10 (-110)

Geno Smith is 10-0 against the spread in his last 10 games, I gotta ride that! Anyways, the 49ers somehow let a lead slip away against a pretty young and questionable athletes on CHI roster, making me think perhaps their young and questionable athlete is not ready to lead an NFL team. Backdoor cover at the least.

Reflection: A game that included the unfortunate loss of young QB T. Lance, who was lined up to be the next young generational QB. SF dominated the game regardless, winning by 20. However, J. Garrapollo did everything that he does in order to win football games (rating over 100).

CIN -7.5 (-110)

I’m doubtful that any defense will replicate the game against CIN that PIT did last week, and they’ll be hungry to assert their dominance. Why not roll with a good team after a loss?

Reflection: Super Bowl hangover? Losing to M. Trubisky and C. Rush are not great talking points at practice or team meetings. CIN offensive line was the problem when J. Burrow got injured two years ago, it was the problem during the Super Bowl last year, and the offensive line proved again in this game that they are still a liability, giving up six sacks and less than four yards per carry.

TEN +10 (-110)

Let’s not forget that sometimes D. Henry just totally takes over a game. I’m thinking that TEN is going to be a below average team this year, however I think for a game like this they will be prepared for. Feed the machine.

Reflection: BUF is insanely good, they’ve won 16 straight games by 10+ points. TEN didn’t stand a chance with their limited roster talent.

PHI -2 (-110)

If J. Hurts can make good throwing decisions and keep using his mobility for first downs and scores, this PHI team is good enough to go a long way this season. I am going to imagine a quick pass to D. Smith early in the game to get him involved after getting no action last week.

Reflection: The addition of A. Brown seems to be a good fit for J. Hurts, who used him to get comfortable and start finding other guys like Watkins and Smith throughout the game. Hurts also ran the ball as well as any QB, and he looks to be big and strong enough to take the hits and punish defensive backs for going low.

Parlay: NYG, CIN, BUF (+166)

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NFL Draft PROP BETS: First Overall Pick Odds, Over/Under Hooks, and more

It was only last year when I discovered that you could bet on props for the NFL Draft. It gives people like me a chance to put their research and analyst skills to the test!

BetMGM Odds

1st Overall Pick:

  • Aidan Hutchinson (-200)*
  • Evan Neal (+400)
  • Ikem Ekwonu (+500)
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (+1500)
  • Charles Cross, Malik Willis, Travon Walker* (+4000)

Draft Position:

I. Ekwonu o3.5 (+125)* / u3.5 (-165)

K. Thibodeaux o5.5 (-145) / u5.5 (+110)

E. Neal o3.5 (-115)* / u3.5 (-115)

K. Hamilton o6.5 (-120) / u6.5 (-110)

A. Gardner o8.5 (+110) / u8.5 (-145)

First Quarterback Drafted:

  • M. Willis (-185)
  • K. Pickett (+195)
  • M. Corral (+1400)
  • S. Howell (+2000)*
  • D. Ridder (+2000)*

DraftKings Odds

1st Overall Pick:

  • A. Hutchinson (-290)
  • E. Neal (+550)*
  • I. Ekwonu (+750)*
  • K. Thibodeaux (+1500)
  • T. Walker (+2000)

Draft Position:

K. Thibodeaux o5.5 (-140)* / u5.5 (+110)

K. Hamilton o6.5 (-125) / u6.5 (-105)

E. Neal o3.5 (-125) / u3.5 (-105)*

A. Hutchinson o1.5 (+225) / u1.5 (-290)

I. Ekwonu o3.5 (+110) / u3.5 (-140)*

First QB Taken:

  • M. Willis (-175)*
  • K. Pickett (+195)
  • M. Corral (+1500)
  • S. Howell (+1500)*
  • D. Ridder (+2500)

First WR Selected:

  • G. Wilson (-110)
  • D. London (+150)
  • T. Burks (+800)
  • J. Williams (+900)
  • C. Olave (+950)

First RB Selected:

  • B. Hall (-175)
  • K. Walker III (+150)
  • I. Spiller (+600)
  • K. Williams (+1600)
  • D. Pierce (+2000)
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Pittsburgh Steelers 2022 Mock Draft: Important Pieces Everywhere

Round 1, Pick 20

Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M

Every single position on the Steelers offensive line could use an upgrade, so it would be wise to draft a lineman that has logged 35 college starts including every position other than center. Green has strong legs that allow him to move quickly and play with great strength, making him an asset on any run play.

This K. Green is a lot more promising than last years K. Green, and it wouldn’t take long for fans to see the impact he would have, benefitting N. Harris and making the job easier for whoever they have at QB.

Green has the athleticism and physical temperament to become an instant starter…

The Draft Network

Round 2, Pick 52

Damone Clark, LB, LSU

Last year’s poor run defense was a fault of many, however the inside linebackers rarely held up their end of the bargain. Clark plays with tremendous speed and instinct, racking up over 100 tackles and five sacks last season.

Additionally, he has the athleticism and tenacity to become a viable pass rusher, which could add a unique blend to his game, similar (but not to the magnitude) to M. Parsons for the Cowboys.

He uses his athletic traits to track and pursue ball-carriers and is a big reason why he ranks amongst the top in the nation in tackles for the 2021 football season.

The Draft Network

Round 3, Pick 84

Marcus Jones, CB, Houston

As of now, it is unknown how the Steelers will address free agent CB’s J. Haden and A. Witherspoon. I think at least one of them will leave, so grabbing much needed depth at a valuable position would be the right choice.

Jones is good in man coverage and has traits like length and instinct that make him a candidate for special teams and special assignments like slot covering or playing different sides of the ball. Yes, last season he got work in at WR and he didn’t look too bad. He could also be used as a kickoff or punt returner pending what happens elsewhere at the position.

Jones has the hips and feet to cover slippery slot receivers and the ballhawking instincts to make plays from zone

Lance Zierlein, NFL Draft Analyst

Round 4, Pick 137

Hassan Haskins, RB, Michigan

Now I know the RB in Pittsburgh is among the leagues best young stars, however the usage rate Najee Harris received last year was too much for him to sustain a ten plus year career. To put the cherry on top, backup RB’s B. Snell and K. Ballage were nothing more than bad last season.

Haskins runs with a fierce demeanor and has exceled at many positions and roles on a football field. Steelers have been linked to Michigan players for quite some time now, and I think they take an extremely solid RB to spell Harris.

Tack on his receiving upside, ball security, and his blocking utility, as well as his special teams experience, and you’re looking at a safe Day 3 pick.

Ian Cummings, Pro Football Network – Draft Analyst
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Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Mock Draft: Matching Strength with Aggressiveness

Round 1, Pick 15

Drake London, WR, USC

Similar to last draft, PHI will be wise to take yet another WR in the first round. London will be a great compliment to D. Smith, a more polished and quick route runner whereas London has tremendous positioning and hands to secure big time plays.

London also competed on the USC basketball during his time there, which has translated to the confidence and ability to make those big time plays. I have even noticed it seems like it’s helped his navigation in traffic and reading defenders. Whoever is the QB for the next few years will greatly appreciate having this guy to throw to in crunch time or panic situations.

Round 1, Pick 16

Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

Davis tested unlike anything we’ve ever seen before at his weight of 341 pounds. Adding him to the defense, for 15 plays a game or 45 plays a game, will immediately pay dividends.

He has incredible strength and burst to fill gaps and pursue ball carriers. There may be a lack of college production, but then again five or six of his defensive teammates will be taken in the first round of this years draft as well, so there were a lot of mouths to feed.

Round 1, Pick 19

George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

With the third and final pick in the first round, PHI should opt to further improve that defensive line group by adding another physical and strong defender, this time along the edge in Karlaftis.

While not as flashy as others in this class, Karlaftis provides a high upside at not only a position of need but also a premium position in this years draft class. Getting to the QB is getting more and more important, so taking two pocket collapsers and run lane fillers will lift the PHI defense into a formidable defensive unit.

Round 2, Pick 51

Tyler Smith, IOL, Tulsa

If you ask around the league – you can never have too many interior offensive linemen. With the focus likely on the rushing attack and giving J. Hurts as much time as possible to read defenses, it makes sense to draft an aggressive and developmental prospect with tackle experience and a guard outlook.

I think working with the PHI offensive line group and playing within that style of offensive can allow Smith to stabilize a role for himself throughout his rookie year.

Round 3, Pick 83

Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati

Beavers is an incredibly smart person, posting a 4.0 GPA in high school and has shown toughness and improvement throughout his college career. Sticking with the physical and aggressive theme throughout this draft; Beavers plays downhill well and absolutely loves the game of football and getting better at it. A pick that any team should be happy for, PHI grabs him to become a crucial part of a potential dynamic rookie defensive core.

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