NFL Rookie of the Year: Who Was Right About Ja’Marr Chase?

Remember that historic 2019 LSU offense that shattered NCAA records? Well, turns out the connection from that QB (Joe Burrow) to that top WR (Ja’Marr Chase) is still successful at the next level – very successful. Chase is soon to be crowned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year while helping the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North.

After drafting Chase 5th overall, the Bengals took a big gamble on boosting their WR core and establishing a top-tier QB/WR duo, rather than drafting a franchise offensive linemen to protect what they already had in Burrow/Mixon. That gamble returned 81 catches, 1,455 yards, 13 TD’s, and a league best 18.1 yards per reception.

Considering the opening odds at Ja’Marr Chase +1500 to win OROY, if a Bengals fan or an advanced sports bettor placed a $10 bet on Chase to win, it will soon pay out $160. Think about that value in the upcoming draft; offensive players like WR Jameson Williams and QB Matt Corral could have great rookie seasons depending on where they land.

Many believed in the Bengals’ vision and Chase’ ability, including:

Max Staley, FanDuel

“That sounds like a Rookie of the Year recipe.”

Hitting the nail on the head multiple times, Staley correctly envisioned the Burrow to Chase connection being special at the next level. Not only that, in his writing he discusses the type of athlete and talent Chase is by himself. That was on display this entire season.

This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase Rookie of the Year Odds Are Disrespectful

Andrew Lamers, Fansided

“It could prove to be an immediate payoff for the rookie receiver and his young quarterback.”

As I mentioned in the opening parts of this post, the 2019 LSU offense was dynamic and truly legendary. Burrow and Chase were MAJOR contributors to that success. There was much debate about protecting Burrow or giving Burrow a great weapon, and it’s nice to recognize the type of player they drafted instead of P. Sewell.

This is his article: Why Ja’Marr Chase will win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Justin Bruni, To the Hizzy Fantasy Sports

“Out of the gate, he offers NFL-Ready skillsets and a five-star bond with his quarterback.”

If you haven’t noticed by now, a common theme is that people who were confident in the Bengals pick of Ja’Marr chase had a vision of the QB/WR chemistry working at the next level, enticing some to take props on his season receiving yards. Although Bruni was wrong about the other Bengals WR to surpass 1,000 yards, his ideas were accurately displaced.

This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase 2021 Receiving Yards Prop

Going forward, I am curious to see what teams try to replicate the ‘formula’ of getting top-tier college QB/WR teammates to make the learning curves easier and provide a lower risk option.

NCAA National Championship Bets: Alabama vs. Georgia

If you’re a fan of college football, or even if you just pay attention to the big games and big schools, it was no doubt that the two best teams in the sport are the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs.

During this national championship, I am excited to see how a few things play out including Bama’s offensive firepower without Metchie III, as well as if Bama’s defense can continue the hot streak they have been playing with. Here are my picks:

Alabama Money Line +125

This could end up being a trap, one that I have fallen victim to before. The line at Georgia -2.5 feels wrong. Based on everything that has unfolded recently, Bama should be the favorite in this game by about a FG.

Since they’re not, I’ll definitely take them at plus-money odds to win outright on the money line. This game is truly a toss up for me, and I probably would take Georgia if their money line price was plus money too.

QB Bryce Young torched the Georgia defense last time out, and it seems like the Alabama offense can operate while supporting the pass AND the run game as the primary force. I expect both teams to take their punches and I’m rooting for an ending like the last time these two teams played in a championship:

NFL Same-game PARLAYS: Week 18

All odds and props provided from FanDuel Sportsbook.

PIT vs. BAL (+575):

C. Claypool o50.0 rec yards

N. Harris u71.5 rush yards

T. Huntley o50.0 rush yards

Reflection: Claypool was utilized as a runner and had 33 yards (team leader) in that category to keep his total below 50. Other two were great hits. Tough loss.

CHI vs. MIN (+1141):

D. Mooney TD Scorer

K. Cousins u249.5 pass yards

MIN ML

Reflection: Well, MIN won and D. Mooney was active. He wasn’t active in the end zone however and ultimately K. Cousins finished with exactly 250 passing yards total, .5 above the prop. We don’t talk about those though since Mooney’s ruled it out anyways!

SF vs. LAR (+724)

G. Kittle TD Scorer

M. Stafford o277.5 pass yards

E. Mitchell o68.5 rush yards

NYJ vs. BUF (+876)

M. Carter o38.5 rush yards

S. Diggs u70.5 rec yards

D. Knox TD Scorer

NFL Week 18 (final week!) Bets, Previews, and more:

Three bets this week, feeling good about all of them. It’s the last week to shake up the draft order, which will cause a new, more accurate edition of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

DAL -4.5

Rating: 3 out of 5.

PHI has been a good team throughout this season, able to control most games with their league leading rushing attack (in terms of yards and rush TD’s), and could potentially be a team to upset someone in the playoffs. With that being said, they have yet to beat a team that’s currently above .500, and DAL is the best team in the league at covering the spread (meaning they can typically handle less talented teams).

Additionally, in today’s NFL I believe the team with a better passing offense has a better chance at winning games for a variety of reasons, and DAL has the better passing QB and WR’s in this matchup.

SEA vs. ARI o47.5 (-110)

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

Russ and co. are going to want to cook one last time before a potential off-season departure for the franchise QB. A game like this could turn into a shootout and both teams have the playmakers and QB’s to make it happen.

ARI offense has hit a wall lately, but they are still one of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and SEA will have a hard time forcing turnovers against them. It also makes an over easer to bet on when SEA is dead last in offensive turnover percentage, meaning their offense production is more ‘readable’ and ‘predictive’.

LAR -4.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I know all about the dominance of SF over LAR in their past six matchups, however I think this spread is an overreaction to recent games as well as over compensating for previous head to head trends.

As many games do, the difference in this spread covering or not could come down to turnovers. Both teams commit turnovers around the same rate, however LAR defense forces turnovers at a top ten percentage (12.9%), compared to SF who is 26th (8.7%).

Parlay:

LAR, LAC (+135)

‘Sharp’ bets to keep an eye on (but not my own):

GB vs. DET u43.5 (-115)

CHI vs. MIN u44.5 (-110)

CAR vs. TB u41.5 (-110)

NO vs. ATL u40.5 (-110)

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Round One, 2nd Edition (of 5)

A couple of things should make for this mock draft to be more accurate and fulfilling than last December. First, the college bowl games have been played (or cancelled in some cases), giving scouts another chance to evaluate players’ attributes.

Additionally, the draft order is further along to being set. There is still one week left in the NFL season, however there’s a few less possibilities now that teams have just one game remaining.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
  2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
  3. Houston Texans: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
  4. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
  5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, OL, Alabama
  6. Carolina Panthers: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
  7. New York Jets (via SEA): Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
  8. New York Giants (via CHI): Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
  9. Washington Football Team: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
  10. Atlanta Falcons: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
  11. Denver Broncos: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
  12. Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
  13. Cleveland Browns: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio state
  14. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
  15. New Orleans Saints: George Karlafits, DE, Purdue
  16. Baltimore Ravens: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan University
  18. Las Vegas Raiders: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
  19. Philadelphia Eagles: David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
  20. Los Angeles Chargers: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
  21. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND): Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
  22. Miami Dolphins (via SF): Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
  23. New England Patriots: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
  24. Arizona Cardinals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
  25. Buffalo Bills: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
  26. Cincinnati Bengals: Sean Rhyan, IOL, UCLA
  27. Dallas Cowboys: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
  28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
  29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
  30. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Drake London, WR, USC
  31. Tennessee Titans: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
  32. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Just missed the first round:

  • DeMarvin Leal, DE/DT, Texas A&M
  • Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
  • A. Booth Jr, CB, Clemson
  • Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
  • Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
  • Darian Kinnard, OL, Kentucky

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cleveland Browns

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these five colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cleveland Browns since 1976:

University of Miami (FL), 15

  • Sheldrick Redwine
  • Chad Thomas
  • David Njoku
  • Duke Johnson
  • Travis Benjamin
  • Leon Williams
  • Kellen Winslow
  • Joaquin Gonzalez
  • James Jackson
  • Andre King
  • A.C. Tellison
  • Gregg Rakoczy
  • Willie Smith
  • Rocky Belk
  • Scott Nicolas

University of Southern California, 15

  • Cody Kessler
  • Randall Telfer
  • Hayes Pullard
  • Jordan Cameron
  • Kaluka Maiava
  • Daylon McCutcheon
  • Scott Galbraith
  • Chip Banks
  • Charles White
  • Paul McDonald
  • Rich Dimler
  • Clay Matthews
  • Kenny Randle
  • John McKay
  • Pete Adams

University of Arizona, 13

  • Scooby Wright III
  • Trevin Wade
  • Syndric Steptoe
  • Dennis Northcutt
  • Manuia Savea
  • Mike Robinson
  • Cleveland Crosby
  • Charles Nash
  • Brian Murray
  • Ransom Terrell
  • Bob Crum
  • Larry McKee
  • Ricky Stevenson

Texas A&M University, 12

  • Damion Ratley
  • Myles Garrett
  • Johnny Manziel
  • Michael Jameson
  • Steve Bullitt
  • Randy Dausin
  • Don Jones
  • Keith Baldwin
  • Mike Whitwell
  • Cody Risien
  • Robert Jackson
  • Leonard Forey

Ohio State University, 11

  • Tommy Togial
  • Denzel Ward
  • Brian Robiskie
  • Darnell Sanders
  • Craig Powell
  • Mark Krerowicz
  • Tom Skladany
  • Jim Cope
  • Dan Scott
  • Dick Wakefield
  • Larry Zelina

Despite having many picks taken from Miami (FL) and USC, you have to read through about 30 names on the list until you find the first name that was ever household.

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cincinnati Bengals

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these four colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cincinnati Bengals since 1976:

Ohio State University, 15

  • Michael Jordan
  • Billy Price
  • Sam Hubbard
  • Reid Fragel
  • Dan Herron
  • Dan Wilkinson
  • Jeff Cothran
  • Steve Tovar
  • Sonny Gordon
  • Gary Williams
  • Ray Griffin
  • Pete Johnson
  • Archie Griffin
  • Ken Kuhn
  • Tom Klaban

University of Michigan, 14

  • Chris Evans
  • Ryan Glasgow
  • Morgan Trent
  • Leon Hall
  • Chris Perry
  • Glen Steele
  • Rod Payne
  • William Carr
  • Tony McGee
  • Mike Hammerstein
  • Eric Kattus
  • Ben Needham
  • Ron Simpkins
  • Mark Donahue

University of Georgia, 13

  • Trey Hill
  • Shawn Williams
  • Orson Charles
  • A.J. Green
  • Clint Boling
  • Geno Atkins
  • David Pollack
  • Odell Thurman
  • Robert Geathers
  • David McCluskey
  • Rex Robinson
  • Mike Wilson
  • Joel Parrish

Arizona State University, 10

  • Renell Wren
  • Christian Westerman
  • Marcus Hardison
  • Levi Jones
  • Victory Leyva
  • Lynn James
  • Skip McClendon
  • Jim Warne
  • David Fulcher
  • Don Kern

Auburn University, 10

  • Deshaun Davis
  • Carl Lawson
  • C.J. Uzomah
  • Pat Sims
  • Kenny Irons
  • Rudi Johnson
  • Takeo Spikes
  • Willie Anderson
  • Lamar Rodgers
  • Craig Ogletree

Throughout this series, it’s pretty common to see teams like Ohio State be a common pipeline for NFL talent. However, the interesting fact lies with the secondary schools like Auburn and Arizona State. For whatever reason, the Bengals have tried and trusted these programs to provide next-level talent.

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Baltimore Ravens

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these four colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Baltimore Ravens since 1996:

University of Oklahoma, 11

  • Marquise Brown
  • Ben Powers
  • Orlando Brown Jr.
  • Mark Andrews
  • Allen Patrick
  • Chris Chester
  • Mark Clayton
  • Dan Cody
  • Trent Smith
  • Martin Chase
  • Sammy Williams

University of Alabama, 11

  • Anthony Averett
  • Bradley Bozeman
  • Marlon Humphrey
  • Tim Williams
  • C.J. Mosley
  • Courtney Upshaw
  • Terrence Cody
  • Le’Ron McClain
  • Jarret Johnson
  • Terry Jones
  • Ralph Staten

University of Notre Dame, 8

  • Devin Hayes
  • Miles Boykin
  • Ronnie Stanley
  • Kapron Lewis-Moore
  • Tom Zbikowski
  • Gerome Sapp
  • Anthony Weaver
  • Javin Hunter

University of Miami (FL), 6

  • Tommy Streeter
  • Tavares Gooden
  • Ed Reed
  • Richard Mercier
  • Duane Starks
  • Ray Lewis

This list of players and colleges shouldn’t really surprise anyone if we remember that the Ravens franchise was founded in 1996, so naturally they have selected players from top tier schools that have dominated most of those years.

It could be argued that all-time, with emphasis on the last 30 years, these programs are the best college football programs ever. So in summary, the Baltimore Ravens look at the best to find their best.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks, Previews, Stats: 49ers, Chargers, and more

SF -3.5

Rating: 4 out of 5.

TEN just finished up a tough loss to PIT on the east coast, and has a short week traveling to the west coast to face an even more physical and technically sound football team in SF who has won five straight non-divisional games.

Reflection: An honest mistake misreading the schedule to think SF was at home. Regardless, I still probably would have taken the points. TEN came out flat as I expected but they converted off of SF turnovers and refused to give the ball up themselves which we know can determine a majority of games.

CAR +11

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

I know the levels of difference in skill level among these two teams, however if TB is without Godwin, Evans and potentially Fournette then CAR defense could keep them at bay, considering Brady has yet to face this CAR defense this season.

Reflection: Well TB has beaten down bad teams in the past, and Tom Brady isn’t exactly known for playing down to competition. It was dumb of me to ever bet against him, especially against a bad CAR team.

LAC -10

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

Despite KC throwing for over 400 yards against LAC last game, prior to that it had been an average of just 212 yards per game since their bye week in Week 7. HOU’ offense is terrible; 32nd in rushing Y/A, 30th in passing NY/A, 32nd in yards per dive, and 32nd in points per drive as well. They have beaten JAX twice this season and their other win came in a game against TEN in which they forced five turnovers and committed zero. Well played, but based on the data, that fortune will not be repeated in a game this season.

Reflection: My goodness was I wrong with this one. LAC lost outright and really just let HOU win the game. I have terrible luck when taking double digit favorites, so much so that I might not bet them anymore!

NYJ -2.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I will fade JAX until the season is over. I have mentioned in my posts before and I stand by what I said as it hasn’t failed me yet! Dysfunctional and arguable the worst football team to be a part of the past few seasons.

Reflection: My pride and joy, only win of the slate. JAX actually should have covered this and maybe even won the game, but Trevor Lawrence spiked the ball on 3rd and goal with about 15 seconds left to only give them one play. Not anything to be concerned with, but it does pay to bet against JAX, again.

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Pittsburgh Steelers

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these five colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers since 1975:

Penn State University, 14

  • Pat Freiermuth
  • Marcus Allen
  • Jesse James
  • A.Q. Shipley
  • Matt Kranchick
  • Jon Witman
  • Eric Ravotti
  • Darren Perry
  • Leroy Thompson
  • Tim Johnson
  • Gregg Garrity
  • Matt Bahr
  • Ron Coder
  • Greg Murphy

Ohio State University, 13

  • Doran Grant
  • Ryan Shazier
  • Mike Adams
  • Cameron Heyward
  • Thaddeus Gibson
  • Dough Worthington
  • Santonio Holmes
  • Rodney Bailey
  • Mike Vrabel
  • Scottie Graham
  • Jeff Graham
  • Ken Fritz
  • Larry Kain

University of Nebraska, 12

  • Carlos Davis
  • Keith Williams
  • Chad Kelsay
  • Kris Brown
  • Brendan Stai
  • Donta Jones
  • Barron Miles
  • Richard Bell
  • Mark Behning
  • Mark Dufresne
  • Wonder Monds
  • Marvin Crenshaw

University of Florida, 12

  • Chris Rainey
  • Marcus Gilbert
  • Maurkice Pouncey
  • Dallas Baker
  • Max Starks
  • Hesham Ismail
  • Huey Richardson
  • Ernie Mills
  • David Little
  • Alvin Cowans
  • Jimmy Stephens
  • Wayne Fields

University of Michigan, 12

  • Devin Bush
  • Zach Gentry
  • LaMarr Woodley
  • Larry Foote
  • Jerame Tuman
  • Dean Dingman
  • Chris Calloway
  • David Arnold
  • Craig Dunaway
  • Russell Davis
  • Jim Smith
  • Dave Brown

Clearly the Pittsburgh Steelers have a tradition and trend of selecting players from Big Ten universities. This has reaped some incredible benefits as players like TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward and Santonio Holmes have come from Big Ten schools.

Will the Steelers look to reload with some more players from the Big Ten conference in the 2022 NFL Draft? Perhaps, as Iowa OL Tyler Linderbaum has to be on their radar at the moment, as well as some players available in later rounds such as Northwestern S Brandon Joseph and Minnesota OL John Michael Schmitz.

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