Red Sox F5 ML (-105). These two teams have offenses that are playing very well, as the Red Sox lead the majors with 54 runs in the past week while the Yankees are ninth with 34. A doubleheader sweep was a wake up call for the Red Sox, who have seen their grip on the AL East be threatened. However, the Yankees are sending LHP Heaney to the mound, and in his last two starts he has posted a 6.43 ERA and has some serious home/road splits, with a 5.37 ERA at home compared to just 3.09 on the road. Meanwhile, RHP Pivetta has thrown the ball much better as of late, with a 3.38 ERA and a .169 BAA in his last 21 and one third innings. I like the chances of the Red Sox offense springing on Heaney and Pivetta to continue his strong performances.
Rockies F5 ML (+118), OVER 14 (-105). A nice little underdog play, but the Rockies have actually had the Padres number this year, going 10-8 against them while outscoring them 71-63. The Rockies are going for the series sweep after covering the alternating spread in the first two games. The Rockies are much better at home than on the road, going 40-21 in Colorado this season, and given that they already roughed up Arrieta once this year in Colorado, I like their chances to do it again and secure yet another home win over their division rival. Over the past two weeks, the Rockies have the third highest slugging percentage in the national league at .491, and we all know how a game can go with a hot offense in Colorado. I am taking the Rockies to get to Arrieta like everyone else has this year.
This is the highest over total I have ever taken, but there’s many reasons to do so. The Rockies are averaging 8.5 runs per game in their last eight home games, and that’s without facing Arrieta who has a 13.50 ERA in his last 14 innings pitched, and will be making the first start for his new team in a park that he has a career 10.13 ERA in, during 18 and two thirds innings of work over the years resulting in an 0-3 record. Also, the Padres still have a very above average lineup. With Tatis Jr, Machado, Frazier, and more, there’s always a threat to score multiple runs quickly. To help with that confidence, Gonzalez’ last four starts have all went over 12 runs, and the last ones have both gone 14 runs total or more. This might be an 8-7 game that the Rockies squeeze out.
Angels vs. Tigers
Angels -1.5 (+130). RHP Ohtani has given up two earned runs or less in five straight starts, and has recorded the win in four of those games. The Tigers have just a .379 slugging in the past week, good for 21st in the league while the Angels are even lower at .341. LHP Skubal has put it together in his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run while the Tigers covered both spreads. However, he had been very shaky prior to those two starts, and over his career he hasn’t shown the ability to continue great streaks like he is currently on. I expect a low scoring affair capped off with an Angels win.
All odds taken from DraftKings official sportsbook: https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/88670847?category=game-lines&subcategory=game.