Free NFL Bets – Week 4

CIN -3.5 (-110)

I know MIA is taking the world by storm right now, and rightfully so. Tua has been the second highest rated QB this season, and the duo of Waddle + Hill is impossible to contain. But, for some reason, Vegas has set the line more than a FG favorite toward CIN, so they know something that I don’t! Could be a hangover week for MIA.

Reflection: All the concern should be on Tua after this game, he never deserved to be in that spot. CIN covered and looked like the more rested, put together team but it was hard to celebrate this one.

BAL +3.5 (-110)

BAL has the highest rated QB this season in Lamar Jackson, leading an offense that he’s always been capable of scoring 30+ points with per game. BUF seems like the team to beat in the AFC, despite their loss down in MIA without all their secondary starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see crazy good QB numbers in this game, but the fact again here is the line is set more in BAL favor than I would have anticipated, so I am leaning on them having a good outing against a great AFC contender.

ATL ML (+110)

CLE has shown to be a decent football team despite playing with their backup QB. Truth be told (look at the linked QB rankings), J. Brissett has played better than most other QB’s in the league! ATL is one of those ‘fun, but young and bad’ teams, which I think gives them a chance to put a few plays together that are enough to change the outcome of this one. Too close of a line when I think CLE clearly has the better roster/coach/scheme combination.

JAX ML (+220)

Eh, PHI could be the best team in the entire NFL (not enough conclusive evidence yet), but JAX has really turned some heads the past two weeks with incredible performances on both sides of the ball. Maybe there’s something to be said about D. Pederson coaching against PHI, where he won a super bowl. Or, maybe this is one of those games that the decision making and playmaking ability of T. Lawrence & J. Hurts will determine the outcome. I like juiced up underdogs like this, but never thought it would be JAX against a team as hot and loaded as PHI. Here goes nothing!

CAR ML (-120)

This is mostly a fade ARI play, because K. Murray is somewhat ineffective without playmaking WR’s (Hopkins/Kirk) and pass-catching RB’s (Edmonds). I don’t like betting to favor CAR, but I think this is another instance where I would have set the line probably -2.5 ARI, so it’s off enough for me to realize I’m not totally analyzing it correctly and someone with lots of information thinks CAR has an advantage.

NFL Free Bets – Week 2

MIA +3.5 (-110)

T. Hill and J. Waddle are a perfect compliment to a great running scheme. BAL is susceptible to the run, and might not have the manpower to go one on one with MIA top guys. Phins keep it close to the ugly birds.

Reflection: An offensive performance I doubt anyone predicted, Tua and MIA won outright against BAL thanks to his 5 TD passes and an incredible comeback. Lamar was nearly perfect but the BAL defense really stunk it up to hand MIA a comeback win.

NYG -2.5 (-110)

Offensively, NYG looks like they have the talent to put up some crooked numbers, especially on the ground. Given the problems CAR just had against the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. Saquon can burst at any time!!

Reflection: A game as boring as it looked on paper, managed to play out exactly how Vegas wanted it to. NYG and CAR kept the game close the entire time and a massive FG won it late. Defenses played well, particularly CAR, who just couldn’t manage to win the time of possession due to turnovers.

NYJ ML (+210)

CLE has a good rushing attack, just like BAL did before the Jets played great against that area. This game could come down to a field goal at the last second.

Reflection: I’m going to continue betting moneyline underdogs when I think they got a chance! CLE played well but really just let NYJ back in the game, and they just kept feeding their two-headed RB monster as well as the young stud G. Wilson. A. Cooper was a force for CLE, even without a star QB, and Chubb/Hunt duo did what they will likely do every week.

TB ML (-155)

Gotta be a trap, because Tom Brady can have an offense comfortably control a game despite not playing well. NO have dominated him though, so don’t be surprised if they figure out a way to slow him down or keep him off the field (even better).

Reflection: Tom Brady is the best person to bet on ever, I’m pretty sure that would be a correct statistic but that’s also my personal experience. I am 5-0 when betting on TB12.

SEA +10 (-110)

Geno Smith is 10-0 against the spread in his last 10 games, I gotta ride that! Anyways, the 49ers somehow let a lead slip away against a pretty young and questionable athletes on CHI roster, making me think perhaps their young and questionable athlete is not ready to lead an NFL team. Backdoor cover at the least.

Reflection: A game that included the unfortunate loss of young QB T. Lance, who was lined up to be the next young generational QB. SF dominated the game regardless, winning by 20. However, J. Garrapollo did everything that he does in order to win football games (rating over 100).

CIN -7.5 (-110)

I’m doubtful that any defense will replicate the game against CIN that PIT did last week, and they’ll be hungry to assert their dominance. Why not roll with a good team after a loss?

Reflection: Super Bowl hangover? Losing to M. Trubisky and C. Rush are not great talking points at practice or team meetings. CIN offensive line was the problem when J. Burrow got injured two years ago, it was the problem during the Super Bowl last year, and the offensive line proved again in this game that they are still a liability, giving up six sacks and less than four yards per carry.

TEN +10 (-110)

Let’s not forget that sometimes D. Henry just totally takes over a game. I’m thinking that TEN is going to be a below average team this year, however I think for a game like this they will be prepared for. Feed the machine.

Reflection: BUF is insanely good, they’ve won 16 straight games by 10+ points. TEN didn’t stand a chance with their limited roster talent.

PHI -2 (-110)

If J. Hurts can make good throwing decisions and keep using his mobility for first downs and scores, this PHI team is good enough to go a long way this season. I am going to imagine a quick pass to D. Smith early in the game to get him involved after getting no action last week.

Reflection: The addition of A. Brown seems to be a good fit for J. Hurts, who used him to get comfortable and start finding other guys like Watkins and Smith throughout the game. Hurts also ran the ball as well as any QB, and he looks to be big and strong enough to take the hits and punish defensive backs for going low.

Parlay: NYG, CIN, BUF (+166)

NFL Rookie of the Year: Who Was Right About Ja’Marr Chase?

Remember that historic 2019 LSU offense that shattered NCAA records? Well, turns out the connection from that QB (Joe Burrow) to that top WR (Ja’Marr Chase) is still successful at the next level – very successful. Chase is soon to be crowned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year while helping the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North.

After drafting Chase 5th overall, the Bengals took a big gamble on boosting their WR core and establishing a top-tier QB/WR duo, rather than drafting a franchise offensive linemen to protect what they already had in Burrow/Mixon. That gamble returned 81 catches, 1,455 yards, 13 TD’s, and a league best 18.1 yards per reception.

Considering the opening odds at Ja’Marr Chase +1500 to win OROY, if a Bengals fan or an advanced sports bettor placed a $10 bet on Chase to win, it will soon pay out $160. Think about that value in the upcoming draft; offensive players like WR Jameson Williams and QB Matt Corral could have great rookie seasons depending on where they land.

Many believed in the Bengals’ vision and Chase’ ability, including:

Max Staley, FanDuel

“That sounds like a Rookie of the Year recipe.”

Hitting the nail on the head multiple times, Staley correctly envisioned the Burrow to Chase connection being special at the next level. Not only that, in his writing he discusses the type of athlete and talent Chase is by himself. That was on display this entire season.

This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase Rookie of the Year Odds Are Disrespectful

Andrew Lamers, Fansided

“It could prove to be an immediate payoff for the rookie receiver and his young quarterback.”

As I mentioned in the opening parts of this post, the 2019 LSU offense was dynamic and truly legendary. Burrow and Chase were MAJOR contributors to that success. There was much debate about protecting Burrow or giving Burrow a great weapon, and it’s nice to recognize the type of player they drafted instead of P. Sewell.

This is his article: Why Ja’Marr Chase will win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Justin Bruni, To the Hizzy Fantasy Sports

“Out of the gate, he offers NFL-Ready skillsets and a five-star bond with his quarterback.”

If you haven’t noticed by now, a common theme is that people who were confident in the Bengals pick of Ja’Marr chase had a vision of the QB/WR chemistry working at the next level, enticing some to take props on his season receiving yards. Although Bruni was wrong about the other Bengals WR to surpass 1,000 yards, his ideas were accurately displaced.

This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase 2021 Receiving Yards Prop

Going forward, I am curious to see what teams try to replicate the ‘formula’ of getting top-tier college QB/WR teammates to make the learning curves easier and provide a lower risk option.

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cleveland Browns

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these five colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cleveland Browns since 1976:

University of Miami (FL), 15

  • Sheldrick Redwine
  • Chad Thomas
  • David Njoku
  • Duke Johnson
  • Travis Benjamin
  • Leon Williams
  • Kellen Winslow
  • Joaquin Gonzalez
  • James Jackson
  • Andre King
  • A.C. Tellison
  • Gregg Rakoczy
  • Willie Smith
  • Rocky Belk
  • Scott Nicolas

University of Southern California, 15

  • Cody Kessler
  • Randall Telfer
  • Hayes Pullard
  • Jordan Cameron
  • Kaluka Maiava
  • Daylon McCutcheon
  • Scott Galbraith
  • Chip Banks
  • Charles White
  • Paul McDonald
  • Rich Dimler
  • Clay Matthews
  • Kenny Randle
  • John McKay
  • Pete Adams

University of Arizona, 13

  • Scooby Wright III
  • Trevin Wade
  • Syndric Steptoe
  • Dennis Northcutt
  • Manuia Savea
  • Mike Robinson
  • Cleveland Crosby
  • Charles Nash
  • Brian Murray
  • Ransom Terrell
  • Bob Crum
  • Larry McKee
  • Ricky Stevenson

Texas A&M University, 12

  • Damion Ratley
  • Myles Garrett
  • Johnny Manziel
  • Michael Jameson
  • Steve Bullitt
  • Randy Dausin
  • Don Jones
  • Keith Baldwin
  • Mike Whitwell
  • Cody Risien
  • Robert Jackson
  • Leonard Forey

Ohio State University, 11

  • Tommy Togial
  • Denzel Ward
  • Brian Robiskie
  • Darnell Sanders
  • Craig Powell
  • Mark Krerowicz
  • Tom Skladany
  • Jim Cope
  • Dan Scott
  • Dick Wakefield
  • Larry Zelina

Despite having many picks taken from Miami (FL) and USC, you have to read through about 30 names on the list until you find the first name that was ever household.

NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cincinnati Bengals

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these four colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cincinnati Bengals since 1976:

Ohio State University, 15

  • Michael Jordan
  • Billy Price
  • Sam Hubbard
  • Reid Fragel
  • Dan Herron
  • Dan Wilkinson
  • Jeff Cothran
  • Steve Tovar
  • Sonny Gordon
  • Gary Williams
  • Ray Griffin
  • Pete Johnson
  • Archie Griffin
  • Ken Kuhn
  • Tom Klaban

University of Michigan, 14

  • Chris Evans
  • Ryan Glasgow
  • Morgan Trent
  • Leon Hall
  • Chris Perry
  • Glen Steele
  • Rod Payne
  • William Carr
  • Tony McGee
  • Mike Hammerstein
  • Eric Kattus
  • Ben Needham
  • Ron Simpkins
  • Mark Donahue

University of Georgia, 13

  • Trey Hill
  • Shawn Williams
  • Orson Charles
  • A.J. Green
  • Clint Boling
  • Geno Atkins
  • David Pollack
  • Odell Thurman
  • Robert Geathers
  • David McCluskey
  • Rex Robinson
  • Mike Wilson
  • Joel Parrish

Arizona State University, 10

  • Renell Wren
  • Christian Westerman
  • Marcus Hardison
  • Levi Jones
  • Victory Leyva
  • Lynn James
  • Skip McClendon
  • Jim Warne
  • David Fulcher
  • Don Kern

Auburn University, 10

  • Deshaun Davis
  • Carl Lawson
  • C.J. Uzomah
  • Pat Sims
  • Kenny Irons
  • Rudi Johnson
  • Takeo Spikes
  • Willie Anderson
  • Lamar Rodgers
  • Craig Ogletree

Throughout this series, it’s pretty common to see teams like Ohio State be a common pipeline for NFL talent. However, the interesting fact lies with the secondary schools like Auburn and Arizona State. For whatever reason, the Bengals have tried and trusted these programs to provide next-level talent.

NFL Week 7: Bets, Stats, Previews: Bengals vs. Ravens, Panthers vs. Giants and more

CAR -3 (-102)

I’m taking another FG favorite, and this time the biggest mismatch will be the CAR defense against the NYG offense. CAR ranks near the top in categories such as yards per play (5.2), scoring percentage (29.3%) and points per drive (1.68). Meanwhile, the NYG offense has 5.6 yards per play, 35.4% scoring and 1.74 points per drive. If it wasn’t for a OT win against NO, NYG would be winless on the season, and they’ll be without Saquon Barkley in this game who scored twice against NO in that upset.

Reflection: Sam Darnold is not a good NFL quarterback, and the CAR defense was massively inflated due to their easy schedule to start the season. NYG still aren’t a good football team, but I have bet on CAR twice this season and both times they have looked terrible.

CIN +6.5 (-110)

I am betting against a BAL team that outscored CIN a combined 65-6 in the two games last year, but the beginning of this season shows a much improved CIN defense that is able to give the offense enough opportunities to hit their home runs. The BAL offense is among the most dominant in the league, but there can be weaknesses in their pass rush and secondary on the other side of the ball. The only common opponent among the two this year is winless DET, and CIN handled them with much more ease than BAL did. I think the divisional underdog keeps it within a field goal, perhaps something like a 30-27 loss.

Reflection: Probably not a final score many saw coming, but CIN looks to be the real deal. The offense is fully capable of scoring with the best of them and the defense has been among the leagues most surprising this season. BAL didn’t put up much of a fight and now the AFC North looks open for potentially every team.

WSH vs. GB o48.5 (-110)

So far these two teams average out to surpass this total in their games’ combined scores this season. WSH does have enough of an offensive attack to put points on the board, but it has been their poor defense that has caused such high game totals. Their opponents average well over 30 points per game in their last five, and this GB team still has Rodgers and Adams at home where they continue to take care of the football and convert drives into points. Not quite a shootout, but a reasonable score could be 31-20 and we’ll take that.

Reflection: GB did their part, they scored when they had the chance thanks to Aaron Rodgers and company, but WSH was not able to do anything on offense despite GB being without four defensive starters. The WSH defense has not lived up to the hype coming into the season and perhaps their offense is feeling the weight of having a backup take all the snaps under center.

PHI vs. LV u49.0 (-110)

PHI has a very inconsistent offense, scoring on a relatively low 33.8% of their drives. On defense though, PHI has shined more than I expected. Against some of the best offenses (KC, TB, DAL) they broke down, but they have four straight games with a turnover and have not allowed 300+ yards passing in any game yet this year. LV will be looking to throw the ball more often than run, as they have only ran for 100+ yards once this year. I predict a teeter totter game ending somewhere along the lines of 27-20.

Reflection: I was right about the PHI offense, it is extremely inconsistent and they were out of this game before they even got their footing. LV has dealt with plenty of distractions in recent weeks but they showed up against a decent PHI defense and put up 33 points. A garbage time TD prevented this from going under and that has been PHI motto all year.

DET vs. LAR u50.5 (-110)

Forget about Jared Goff’s “revenge game”, DET hasn’t cracked 20 points in five straight games. We all know what the LAR offense is capable of; they own the first rated passing attack in the league at 8.6 NY/A. Couple that with going against the worst pass defense in the league in DET and this could become a very lopsided game, leading to a lot of bleeding clock and unmotivated drives. This game shouldn’t be close, no matter how you stack the pieces. Final score around the likes of 30-17.

Reflection: DET still hasn’t scored 20+ points in any of their last six games, despite showing some trick plays to get a head start early in this game. LAR are as good as any team in the league when they’re firing on all cylinders, and it was nice to see that their offense didn’t have a huge field day in terms of scoring points against a troublesome DET defense.

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