NFL Draft Prospects and Their Pro Player Comparisons

The goal for these comparisons is to match the play style and abilities of 2023 NFL draft prospects to an NFL player known for those play styles and abilities, the goal is NOT to predict a career or definitively compare between players . I’ve formed the comparisons after watching regular season games, reviewing scouting reports and dialing up a YouTube highlight video or two.

QB

  • Bryce Young — Joe Burrow
    • 6’0 height
    • Escapeability in the pocket, but not a runner
    • Pinpoint accuracy
    • Dominated in the SEC, Heisman winners
  • Will Levis — Matthew Stafford
    • Ideal arm talent
    • Big body, harder to tackle
    • Good experience running plays under center, play action
  • C.J. Stroud — Geno Smith
    • Makes quick decisions in the pocket
    • Doesn’t rely on mobility
    • Ball placement gives receivers a chance
  • Anthony Richardson — Justin Fields
    • Off the charts athleticism
    • Strong natural arm
  • Hendon Hooker — Derek Carr
    • Able to identify open WR’s
    • Comfortable in the pocket
    • Average NFL arm strength
  • Tanner McKee — Jared Goff
    • Good in plays with timing
    • Longer release in throwing motion
    • Tall, durable physique

WR

  • Quentin Johnston — Kyle Pitts
    • Athletic build that translates on field
    • Strong after the catch
  • Rashee Rice — A.J. Brown
    • Strong frame to win contested battles
    • Elusive and determined after the catch
  • Jordan Addison — Chris Olave
    • Excellent route runners
    • Elusive and electric with the ball
    • Similar physique (height/catch radius)
  • Jaxson Smith-Njigba — Jarvis Landry
    • Playmaker from the slot
    • Natural feel for open zones of the field
  • Josh Downs — Tyler Lockett
    • Versatile athlete
    • Same physique (height)
    • Great in contested catch situations
  • Jalin Hyatt — Jaylen Waddle
    • Fast, long strides that leads to separation

RB

  • Bijan Robinson — Austin Ekeler/Miles Sanders
    • Powerful lower half with contact balance
    • Receiving threat
    • Understands running lanes
  • Jahmyr Gibbs — Chrisitan McCaffrey
    • Electric kick / punt returner
    • Quick feet and acceleration to make defenders miss
    • Excellent receiving & route running
  • Devon Achane — Alvin Kamara
    • Off the charts balance / flexibility
    • Same forward leaning running style

NFL Week 18 (final week!) Bets, Previews, and more:

Three bets this week, feeling good about all of them. It’s the last week to shake up the draft order, which will cause a new, more accurate edition of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

DAL -4.5

Rating: 3 out of 5.

PHI has been a good team throughout this season, able to control most games with their league leading rushing attack (in terms of yards and rush TD’s), and could potentially be a team to upset someone in the playoffs. With that being said, they have yet to beat a team that’s currently above .500, and DAL is the best team in the league at covering the spread (meaning they can typically handle less talented teams).

Additionally, in today’s NFL I believe the team with a better passing offense has a better chance at winning games for a variety of reasons, and DAL has the better passing QB and WR’s in this matchup.

SEA vs. ARI o47.5 (-110)

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

Russ and co. are going to want to cook one last time before a potential off-season departure for the franchise QB. A game like this could turn into a shootout and both teams have the playmakers and QB’s to make it happen.

ARI offense has hit a wall lately, but they are still one of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and SEA will have a hard time forcing turnovers against them. It also makes an over easer to bet on when SEA is dead last in offensive turnover percentage, meaning their offense production is more ‘readable’ and ‘predictive’.

LAR -4.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I know all about the dominance of SF over LAR in their past six matchups, however I think this spread is an overreaction to recent games as well as over compensating for previous head to head trends.

As many games do, the difference in this spread covering or not could come down to turnovers. Both teams commit turnovers around the same rate, however LAR defense forces turnovers at a top ten percentage (12.9%), compared to SF who is 26th (8.7%).

Parlay:

LAR, LAC (+135)

‘Sharp’ bets to keep an eye on (but not my own):

GB vs. DET u43.5 (-115)

CHI vs. MIN u44.5 (-110)

CAR vs. TB u41.5 (-110)

NO vs. ATL u40.5 (-110)

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