Not long ago, it seemed like professional baseball being played this spring was a long shot. After both sides agreed to something, the great sport of baseball is almost back in full swing (pun intended), only awaiting the first pitch of the season, scheduled to be Thursday, April 7th.
Each team has a winning total set by various sports books in my state, so we’ll start with team win totals, then move on to division winners, player props and finally league awards bets. All of this work was done by @All_TimeBets & @DailyCFBCBB on Twitter, both of those pages are shown at the end of this page to get a feel for what they provide.
Italicized bets are @DailyCFBCBB picks
Bold bets are agreed upon by both parties
Regular font are @All_TimeBets picks
Chicago White Sox // Over 91.5 (+100)
Cleveland Guardians // Under 76.5 (-110)
Detroit Tigers // Over 77.5 (-110)
Kansas City Royals // Over 74.5 (-110)
Minnesota Twins // Under 81.5 (-110)
Baltimore Orioles // Under 62.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox // Under 85.5 (-110)
New York Yankees // Under 91.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Rays // Over 89.5 (-115)
Toronto Blue Jays // Over 92.5 (-110)
Houston Astros // Under 92.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Angels // Under 84.5 (-110)
Oakland Athletics // Under 69.5 (-110)
Seattle Mariners // Under 84.5 (-110)
Texas Rangers // Over 74.5 (-110)
Atlanta Braves // Under 91.5 (-110)
Miami Marlins // Over 76.5 (-110)
New York Mets // Under 88.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Phillies // Under 86.5 (-105)
Washington Nationals // Under 71.5 (-110)
Chicago Cubs // Under 75.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds // Under 74.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Brewers // Over 89.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates // Under 65.5 (-115)
St. Louis Cardinals // Over 84.5 (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks // Over 67.5 (-115)
Colorado Rockies // Under 68.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Dodgers // Over 98.5 (-105)
San Diego Padres // Over 90.5 (-110)
San Francisco Giants // Under 86.5 (-115)
AL Central: White Sox (-195) & Detroit Tigers (+800)
AL East: Blue Jays (+170)
AL West: Mariners (+450)
NL Central: Cardinals (+215)
NL East: Braves (+115)
NL West: Dodgers (-235)
A. Meadows u28.5 home runs (-110)
A. Judge u36.5 home runs (-110)
C. Seager o26.5 home runs (-110)
H. Renfroe o31.5 home runs (-110)
T. Story u26.5 home runs (-110)
J. Soto u34.5 home runs (-110)
R. Devers o37.5 home runs (-105)
T. Hernandez o99.5 runs batted in (-110)
E. Suarez u98.5 runs batted in (-110)
A. Manoah o152.5 strikeouts (-105)
C. Morton u185.5 strikeouts (-110)
N. Eovaldi o185.5 strikeouts (-110)
S. Bieber o235.5 strikeouts (-110)
S. Ohtani (+350)
K. Tucker (+2500)
Y. Alvarez (+3000)
X. Bogaerts (+4500)
R. Acuna Jr (+700)
F. Freeman (+1200)
M. Olson (+2200)
S. Bieber (+700)
Jose Berrios (+2000)
C. Burnes (+750)
W. Buehler (+900)
M. Fried (+2200)
A. DeSclafani (+9000)
Rookie of the Year
S. Torkelson (+450)
J. Rodriguez (+500)
R. Greene (+1500)
S. Suzuki (+380)
H. Greene (+750)
S. Sanchez (+1300)
Keep in mind the best strategy is not to bet on everything you see written here, and to always do your own research. For consistent quality sports betting content and a welcoming community, follow the Twitter accounts that contributed to this post:
Mason Rudolph? Marcus Mariota? Jimmy Garoppolo? Jameis Winston? Or a rookie…
QB Ben Roethlisberger gave 18 hall of fame seasons to the Steelers, and replacing him will likely be the hardest replacement ever for the franchise. The realistic options for next year’s starting QB job in Pittsburgh are as follows and NOT in any order:
Here is how some of these QB’s compare in their last ten games started (Mason Rudolph’s sample size):
This list has some talented QB’s and some not so talented QB’s. The craziest thing is that I think the best player for the job is one of the lesser talented names on the entire list… Factoring in everything that the Steelers front office should (like contract, familiarity, and draft capital) the best QB for the Steelers in 2022 is…
This will make someone rage click off this page I’m sure of it. But hear me out; Rudolph has one of the best things an NFL team could ask for – a QB on a rookie deal. The resources saved by locking in Rudolph as next years starter could and should be used to acquire smaller pieces for a roster that desperately needs better pieces.
Not only that, but the Steelers (and most teams) will not be jumping at the opportunity to take more risk than they have to. Rudolph has shown the staff and fans everything that he can and cannot do on the football field with the current offense, which should make it possible to game plan around his strengths and weaknesses. Whereas bringing in anyone will require somewhat of an adjustment and the QB performance might be negatively affected as a result.
2- Mitchell Trubisky (+1600)
Again, I’m probably not making a bunch of sense right now. But hear me out again; Trubisky just sat one year behind arguably the most talented QB in the world right now. The graph at the beginning shows one thing; his statistics look better than the others, namely his combination of rush yards per game, total touchdowns, completion percentage and touchdown percentage.
Based on current contract values, Trubisky will be cheaper than M. Mariota, J. Winston, A. Dalton and T. Bridgewater. He satisfies Tomlin’s desire for a mobile QB while actually improving the overall effectiveness of the offense, compared to Big Ben or Mason Rudolph.
3- Jameis Winston (+900)
Probably the most expensive name on the free agent list, I believe Winston can build off of his productive half-year in New Orleans. The stats don’t lie, and they tell us that Winston is truly the ‘all or nothing’ type of QB with a great ability to score touchdowns…and also the ability to ‘waste a pass’ (interception or incompletion).
That’s not exactly what the Steelers would sign him to be though, as he grew more patient and anticipated better throughout his time in New Orleans. He would only be brought in if other big upgrades were made to positions like WR and OL.
4- Malik Willis (+1400)
Here’s the first rookie, finally! The reason I don’t have any rookie higher than four is because I don’t think the better QB’s in the class will be available at pick 20, and I don’t see PIT trading up for any of them.
However if they did trade up, to get Willis, it would probably not be to sit him for a year, right? I would have to assume given his potential that they’re able to design an offense that he’s able to adapt to considering the offensive scheme they tried to run with the total opposite QB of Willis (Big Ben).
5- Sam Howell (+1800)
Oh another rookie? This rookie is (probably) the most pro-ready QB in the class, given his accuracy, experience and athleticism. Although I don’t like to put too much weight on this; Kevin Colbert and the scouting department have watched Sam Howell the most throughout the season/off-season. A real possibility could be the top five lineman are gone and the top two or three QB’s are gone, in either case might prompt PIT to draft Howell for safety and needs.
6- Marcus Mariota (+1300)
Mariota is probably dying to get the chance to start again, but even if he were to come to PIT, something tells me it would still be a battle between him and Rudolph for the entirety of preseason.
Although he could help boost the running game with his mobility, he hasn’t gotten the chance to do that in a while and his speed/elusiveness may be on the decline given his age. However, he has shown the ability to take care of the football and that could prove to be all a team needs from their QB.
7- Jimmy Garoppolo (+750)
Garoppolo has been discussed the most heavily in connection with PIT’s starting QB next season (at least among free agents). While he might have the innate ability to pull out wins and command a powerful offense, it isn’t as clear how much of that was because of him, rather than despite him. The price tag and expectations would far exceed the offensive productivity with him and the current scheme.
8- Matt Corral (+1200)
I won’t lie I think Corral would be fun to watch in PIT. He’d likely use his legs as much as he needed, and that in itself would give the offense a different type of style for the foreseeable future. Not sure how serious his injury is, but even if he’s fully healthy he doesn’t have the most prototypical frame of an NFL QB and will likely undergo A LOT of pressure if PIT drafts him in the first round. If it happens I wouldn’t surprise if Corral sat behind Rudolph to at least start the season.
9- Russel Wilson (+1200)
Well, Wilson is easily the most proven and valuable QB on this list, and adding an escape artist QB who throws one of the best deep ball passes in the game would instantly make the offense more explosive given their QB immobility last year and lack of deep ball success.
What’s important to keep in mind though is Wilson would cost at least two first-round picks and maybe even a player. The roster isn’t constructed to spend as much as possible on a QB when other pieces are needed yet would be forfeited with the acquisition of Wilson.
10- Kenny Pickett (+900)
Now this is NOT me saying Pickett is the worst QB on this list, please keep that in mind! As it stands now, I’m willing to bet that there’s a 99% chance Pickett gets drafted inside the top-15 and that would mean PIT sacrificing draft capital and/or players to jump up and select him.
I like the chemistry Pickett would have with offensive coordinator Matt Canada, however no amount of chemistry can fix the offensive line that would be in a state of unknown heading into next season, especially if a QB is taken in round one and not a lineman.
There are many paths for the Pittsburgh Steelers to find their next QB, whether it be for one year or the next ten. There are pros and cons to each of their options and a lot of the decisions will likely come down to cost and risk. Mason Rudolph should be the starting QB next year, because he is the lowest-risk option on this list and is also the cheapest while he’s still on his rookie contract.
With that being said, if the objective is to look at the odds and make money on this situation; my bets are going to be placed on Mason Rudolph ($5), Marcus Mariota ($1), and Sam Howell ($1). I wouldn’t take them though until more of the draft process gets going, as that will tell the fans a lot about who is focused on who.
My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from given my ranking system, not to achieve a high profit margin (yet).
CIN +3 (-110)
My ranking system likes CIN, and the eye test really likes Joe Burrow. With him at QB, the offense runs like a well oiled machine most of the time, similar to Aaron Rodgers and GB. Surprisingly, the CIN defense ranks in the top five in points per drive, points per 100 yards, yards per play and has the third lowest scoring percentage allowed. That could prove to be the difference maker in this one.
BUF ML (+130)
It’s crazy for me to phantom betting against the combo of Mahomes + Reid, however anytime I can get a moneyline price this good for a super bowl contender, I might as well take it. Especially when the KC defense is among the worst in the league and we all know what the BUF offense is capable of (top five in scoring percentage, 3 straight dominant performances and last years MVP runner up).
SF +5.5 (-110)
ARI has been the best team in football this year according to the eye test, my model, and by record. But, this is a tough divisional opponent that will have the ability to neutralize some of ARI weapons on offense. These defenses are rated almost identical in my model, and if Trey Lance’ running ability can keep Kyler Murray off of the field, SF will have an easier time getting through this one.
CHI vs. LV u44.5 (-110)
With CHI having such abysmal passing numbers this year and LV actually holding their ground through the air, I don’t expect many explosive plays or even much consistent offense in this one. CHI does have the defensive personnel to stifle Derek Carr similar to what LAC did to him last week and if that happens an under could very well be in play.
GB vs CIN o50.5 (-110)
Both of these defenses have played above expectations at times this year, but I do believe these two offenses have great leaders under center that can lead to a high 20’s scoring affair. CIN defense has well above average defense ratings (4th best overall), but facing Aaron Rodgers is a different task than Big Ben or rookie Trevor Lawrence.
NO vs. WFT u43.5 (-110)
Neither defense played up to their potential last week with brutal showings that resulted in a loss. However, NO hasn’t proved they totally can totally score at will with Jameis yet and although Heinecke has posted solid stats this year, I think this NO defense that ranks near the top in many categories can cause WFT to resort to their rushing attack and shorten the game.
LAR ML (-134)
I bet on LAR last week and it ended up being the wrong read, so surely this week they find their way back to the win column. LAR holds a pretty decent edge on SEA in my overall rankings, and on a per drive basis their defense is almost a half point better. I’m also still confident that Matt Stafford makes this LAR offense one of the most dangerous in the league (they are rated #1 in my rankings).
CAR ML (-188)*
This is near the most I’ll ever lay down for a straight moneyline bet at -188. CAR has the type of defense that will win them games from that unit alone. They were picked apart last week but they are a half point better than PHI on a points per drive basis, as well as a full yard better in yards per play. CAR is easy to have confidence in for this matchup considering the common opponent played in back to back weeks didn’t give them as hard of a time as they did PHI.
*If RB McCaffrey is playing
LV -5.5 (-110)
Without David Montgomery, CHI could be without their most reliable and consistent form of offense through the first four games of the season. CHI has the lowest passing NY/A in the NFL at just 3.9, and the LV defense allows the fourth lowest NY/A at just 5.5. Overall there is nearly a 25 point difference in my rating system which shows that LV should have a major upper hand throughout the game.
My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.
NE +7 (-110)
Yep, I am betting on the Patriot way to get it done against what many consider the favorites to repeat as champions. According to my advanced ranking system, these two teams are actually neck and neck with each other, and NE even has the slight edge due to their top five defense and TB falling pretty flat on defense the first three games.
DET ML (+130)
The second worst rated team in my model is CHI, trailing only the saddening NYJ. While DET hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, they rate just below league average on offense and will roll out a far better offensive line and quarterback group. DET has the worst rated defense, but I’ve seen the CHI offense in action and it might not be too hard to scheme up a few stops against them when they need it.
DEN ML (+100)
I know this isn’t traditionally an underdog, but BAL sits at a heftier moneyline price at -112 so technically it is an underdog in regards to the matchup. The two offenses have around the same statistical ranking this season, and while DEN is rated as the second best defense, BAL is way behind as the fifth worst.
CLV vs. MIN o51.5 (-110)
Both of these offenses are top ten in the league when fully healthy when factoring successful play rate, explosive play rate, points per drive and offense scoring percentage. MIN defense has not proven that they’ll be able to slow down this juggernaut CLV offense, and as always the trio of Jefferson, Theilen and Cook can score a few times each game if all goes well.
NYG vs. NO u42.5 (-110)
NYG is beat up on offense, which will make it even harder to score and gain yardage on a top five total defense. On the year NYG has a pretty low explosive play rate at 8%, and the NO defense is sixth in yards per play at 4.7. The NO offense hasn’t necessarily shattered the stat sheet, as they have allowed a very high pressure rate (31.3%) and are bottom five in yards per play (4.3) as well as net yards per passing attempt (4.8).
HOU vs. BUF o47 (-110)
BUF has proven that they are capable of scoring 30+ points on a good defense, and although HOU is onto their backup rookie QB, the game script in this game could play in favor of an over set relatively low.
LAR -4 (-115)
Kyler Murray does not have any career success against LAR as they’ve held him to just a 75.8 rating with 11 sacks, 5 TD’s and 4 INT. They’ve also limited him as a rushing threat with just a 3.54 Y/A in 13 carries. The LAR look like a freight train that can’t be stopped, and their defense looks like it can hang with anyone. I’ll ride them to cover or at least win until something tells me otherwise.
NO -7 (-110)
NYG could be without many of their offensive weapons, which as I alluded to earlier could make it much harder for them to crack one of the best defenses in the league up to this point of the season. NO was ranked very high last season and has many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball, however I still think Jameis Winston is capable of managing this team to some impressive looking wins (as he already has twice).
GB -6.5 (-115)
Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL have been trending in opposite directions. PIT maintains a defensive advantage in this matchup with TJ Watt returning to the field, but statistically GB isn’t far behind. The reason to take the favorite here though is the differences in offense. There is a very clear and significant difference in the efficiency and effectiveness of both offenses, as PIT sits as the second worst offense in successful play rate with marginally lower yards per play and net yards per pass attempt numbers.
My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 12 picks and a parlay. The 12 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs, totals and player props. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.
IND +5.5 (-110)
This big of a spread between divisional opponents seems like too much in this spot. Both teams are towards the bottom of the league in terms of statistical performance so far this year, and I think there’s enough flaws in the TEN defense (surprise surprise) to keep them from pulling away in this game. Keep in mind that IND kept it within a field goal against the clear cut #1 team right now in LAR.
KC has played with fire their last three games, and has paid the price in two of them. Given this years advanced ranking system, KC is not the AFC juggernaut due to their poor defensive play (which could be because they’ve played two of the best offensive teams in the league to start the season) and LAC is just two spots behind them, thanks to their . Yet another divisional underdog I’m taking to cover the spread.
The LAR defense that was the best in the league last year looks ready to return to that status. They’re well above average in every ranking statistic, and they still have an unstoppable force in Aaron Donald. At the same time, Brady was sacked three times last week against ATL. The game of the week shouldn’t feature all the fireworks we come to expect from these two teams. Here’s a preview on YouTube.
SF -3 (-115)
Per my ranking system, this is a huge mismatch in favor of SF. They have given Rodgers a hard time in recent years, and the way they can control the field position and pace of this game gives them the upper hand against GB, who through two weeks this season looks like there are some serious concerns. A win against DET does not convince me otherwise, especially when they were going toe to toe throughout the first half.
SEA ML (-125)
In case it isn’t already clear, Russell Wilson is a generational talent. It’s hard to go against him, especially in the first half of the season. The MIN offense has looked like it will go blow for blow with anyone in the league, but they have relied more on explosive plays rather than consistent yardage. SEA averages the most yards per play and is top six in points per drive and offensive success rate, oh they also have a bit of an explosive combination in Wilson and Lockett.
LV -3.5 (-110)
The surprise to start the season has been LV after upsetting the Ravens and Steelers in back to back games. MIA got bullied by one division opponent, and snuck by another with QB making his first ever NFL start. Rankings have this as a major mismatch, and I always trust the better QB to cover the spread when facing a backup.