NFL Free Bets – Week 2

MIA +3.5 (-110)

T. Hill and J. Waddle are a perfect compliment to a great running scheme. BAL is susceptible to the run, and might not have the manpower to go one on one with MIA top guys. Phins keep it close to the ugly birds.

Reflection: An offensive performance I doubt anyone predicted, Tua and MIA won outright against BAL thanks to his 5 TD passes and an incredible comeback. Lamar was nearly perfect but the BAL defense really stunk it up to hand MIA a comeback win.

NYG -2.5 (-110)

Offensively, NYG looks like they have the talent to put up some crooked numbers, especially on the ground. Given the problems CAR just had against the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. Saquon can burst at any time!!

Reflection: A game as boring as it looked on paper, managed to play out exactly how Vegas wanted it to. NYG and CAR kept the game close the entire time and a massive FG won it late. Defenses played well, particularly CAR, who just couldn’t manage to win the time of possession due to turnovers.

NYJ ML (+210)

CLE has a good rushing attack, just like BAL did before the Jets played great against that area. This game could come down to a field goal at the last second.

Reflection: I’m going to continue betting moneyline underdogs when I think they got a chance! CLE played well but really just let NYJ back in the game, and they just kept feeding their two-headed RB monster as well as the young stud G. Wilson. A. Cooper was a force for CLE, even without a star QB, and Chubb/Hunt duo did what they will likely do every week.

TB ML (-155)

Gotta be a trap, because Tom Brady can have an offense comfortably control a game despite not playing well. NO have dominated him though, so don’t be surprised if they figure out a way to slow him down or keep him off the field (even better).

Reflection: Tom Brady is the best person to bet on ever, I’m pretty sure that would be a correct statistic but that’s also my personal experience. I am 5-0 when betting on TB12.

SEA +10 (-110)

Geno Smith is 10-0 against the spread in his last 10 games, I gotta ride that! Anyways, the 49ers somehow let a lead slip away against a pretty young and questionable athletes on CHI roster, making me think perhaps their young and questionable athlete is not ready to lead an NFL team. Backdoor cover at the least.

Reflection: A game that included the unfortunate loss of young QB T. Lance, who was lined up to be the next young generational QB. SF dominated the game regardless, winning by 20. However, J. Garrapollo did everything that he does in order to win football games (rating over 100).

CIN -7.5 (-110)

I’m doubtful that any defense will replicate the game against CIN that PIT did last week, and they’ll be hungry to assert their dominance. Why not roll with a good team after a loss?

Reflection: Super Bowl hangover? Losing to M. Trubisky and C. Rush are not great talking points at practice or team meetings. CIN offensive line was the problem when J. Burrow got injured two years ago, it was the problem during the Super Bowl last year, and the offensive line proved again in this game that they are still a liability, giving up six sacks and less than four yards per carry.

TEN +10 (-110)

Let’s not forget that sometimes D. Henry just totally takes over a game. I’m thinking that TEN is going to be a below average team this year, however I think for a game like this they will be prepared for. Feed the machine.

Reflection: BUF is insanely good, they’ve won 16 straight games by 10+ points. TEN didn’t stand a chance with their limited roster talent.

PHI -2 (-110)

If J. Hurts can make good throwing decisions and keep using his mobility for first downs and scores, this PHI team is good enough to go a long way this season. I am going to imagine a quick pass to D. Smith early in the game to get him involved after getting no action last week.

Reflection: The addition of A. Brown seems to be a good fit for J. Hurts, who used him to get comfortable and start finding other guys like Watkins and Smith throughout the game. Hurts also ran the ball as well as any QB, and he looks to be big and strong enough to take the hits and punish defensive backs for going low.

Parlay: NYG, CIN, BUF (+166)

Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Mock Draft: Matching Strength with Aggressiveness

Round 1, Pick 15

Drake London, WR, USC

Similar to last draft, PHI will be wise to take yet another WR in the first round. London will be a great compliment to D. Smith, a more polished and quick route runner whereas London has tremendous positioning and hands to secure big time plays.

London also competed on the USC basketball during his time there, which has translated to the confidence and ability to make those big time plays. I have even noticed it seems like it’s helped his navigation in traffic and reading defenders. Whoever is the QB for the next few years will greatly appreciate having this guy to throw to in crunch time or panic situations.

Round 1, Pick 16

Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

Davis tested unlike anything we’ve ever seen before at his weight of 341 pounds. Adding him to the defense, for 15 plays a game or 45 plays a game, will immediately pay dividends.

He has incredible strength and burst to fill gaps and pursue ball carriers. There may be a lack of college production, but then again five or six of his defensive teammates will be taken in the first round of this years draft as well, so there were a lot of mouths to feed.

Round 1, Pick 19

George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

With the third and final pick in the first round, PHI should opt to further improve that defensive line group by adding another physical and strong defender, this time along the edge in Karlaftis.

While not as flashy as others in this class, Karlaftis provides a high upside at not only a position of need but also a premium position in this years draft class. Getting to the QB is getting more and more important, so taking two pocket collapsers and run lane fillers will lift the PHI defense into a formidable defensive unit.

Round 2, Pick 51

Tyler Smith, IOL, Tulsa

If you ask around the league – you can never have too many interior offensive linemen. With the focus likely on the rushing attack and giving J. Hurts as much time as possible to read defenses, it makes sense to draft an aggressive and developmental prospect with tackle experience and a guard outlook.

I think working with the PHI offensive line group and playing within that style of offensive can allow Smith to stabilize a role for himself throughout his rookie year.

Round 3, Pick 83

Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati

Beavers is an incredibly smart person, posting a 4.0 GPA in high school and has shown toughness and improvement throughout his college career. Sticking with the physical and aggressive theme throughout this draft; Beavers plays downhill well and absolutely loves the game of football and getting better at it. A pick that any team should be happy for, PHI grabs him to become a crucial part of a potential dynamic rookie defensive core.

NFL Week 18 (final week!) Bets, Previews, and more:

Three bets this week, feeling good about all of them. It’s the last week to shake up the draft order, which will cause a new, more accurate edition of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

DAL -4.5

Rating: 3 out of 5.

PHI has been a good team throughout this season, able to control most games with their league leading rushing attack (in terms of yards and rush TD’s), and could potentially be a team to upset someone in the playoffs. With that being said, they have yet to beat a team that’s currently above .500, and DAL is the best team in the league at covering the spread (meaning they can typically handle less talented teams).

Additionally, in today’s NFL I believe the team with a better passing offense has a better chance at winning games for a variety of reasons, and DAL has the better passing QB and WR’s in this matchup.

SEA vs. ARI o47.5 (-110)

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

Russ and co. are going to want to cook one last time before a potential off-season departure for the franchise QB. A game like this could turn into a shootout and both teams have the playmakers and QB’s to make it happen.

ARI offense has hit a wall lately, but they are still one of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and SEA will have a hard time forcing turnovers against them. It also makes an over easer to bet on when SEA is dead last in offensive turnover percentage, meaning their offense production is more ‘readable’ and ‘predictive’.

LAR -4.5

Rating: 2 out of 5.

I know all about the dominance of SF over LAR in their past six matchups, however I think this spread is an overreaction to recent games as well as over compensating for previous head to head trends.

As many games do, the difference in this spread covering or not could come down to turnovers. Both teams commit turnovers around the same rate, however LAR defense forces turnovers at a top ten percentage (12.9%), compared to SF who is 26th (8.7%).

Parlay:

LAR, LAC (+135)

‘Sharp’ bets to keep an eye on (but not my own):

GB vs. DET u43.5 (-115)

CHI vs. MIN u44.5 (-110)

CAR vs. TB u41.5 (-110)

NO vs. ATL u40.5 (-110)

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