UNDERDOGS:

CIN +3 (-110)

My ranking system likes CIN, and the eye test really likes Joe Burrow. With him at QB, the offense runs like a well oiled machine most of the time, similar to Aaron Rodgers and GB. Surprisingly, the CIN defense ranks in the top five in points per drive, points per 100 yards, yards per play and has the third lowest scoring percentage allowed. That could prove to be the difference maker in this one.

BUF ML (+130)

It’s crazy for me to phantom betting against the combo of Mahomes + Reid, however anytime I can get a moneyline price this good for a super bowl contender, I might as well take it. Especially when the KC defense is among the worst in the league and we all know what the BUF offense is capable of (top five in scoring percentage, 3 straight dominant performances and last years MVP runner up).

SF +5.5 (-110)

ARI has been the best team in football this year according to the eye test, my model, and by record. But, this is a tough divisional opponent that will have the ability to neutralize some of ARI weapons on offense. These defenses are rated almost identical in my model, and if Trey Lance’ running ability can keep Kyler Murray off of the field, SF will have an easier time getting through this one.

TOTALS:

CHI vs. LV u44.5 (-110)

With CHI having such abysmal passing numbers this year and LV actually holding their ground through the air, I don’t expect many explosive plays or even much consistent offense in this one. CHI does have the defensive personnel to stifle Derek Carr similar to what LAC did to him last week and if that happens an under could very well be in play.

GB vs CIN o50.5 (-110)

Both of these defenses have played above expectations at times this year, but I do believe these two offenses have great leaders under center that can lead to a high 20’s scoring affair. CIN defense has well above average defense ratings (4th best overall), but facing Aaron Rodgers is a different task than Big Ben or rookie Trevor Lawrence.

NO vs. WFT u43.5 (-110)

Neither defense played up to their potential last week with brutal showings that resulted in a loss. However, NO hasn’t proved they totally can totally score at will with Jameis yet and although Heinecke has posted solid stats this year, I think this NO defense that ranks near the top in many categories can cause WFT to resort to their rushing attack and shorten the game.

FAVORITES:

LAR ML (-134)

I bet on LAR last week and it ended up being the wrong read, so surely this week they find their way back to the win column. LAR holds a pretty decent edge on SEA in my overall rankings, and on a per drive basis their defense is almost a half point better. I’m also still confident that Matt Stafford makes this LAR offense one of the most dangerous in the league (they are rated #1 in my rankings).

CAR ML (-188)*

This is near the most I’ll ever lay down for a straight moneyline bet at -188. CAR has the type of defense that will win them games from that unit alone. They were picked apart last week but they are a half point better than PHI on a points per drive basis, as well as a full yard better in yards per play. CAR is easy to have confidence in for this matchup considering the common opponent played in back to back weeks didn’t give them as hard of a time as they did PHI.

*If RB McCaffrey is playing

LV -5.5 (-110)

Without David Montgomery, CHI could be without their most reliable and consistent form of offense through the first four games of the season. CHI has the lowest passing NY/A in the NFL at just 3.9, and the LV defense allows the fourth lowest NY/A at just 5.5. Overall there is nearly a 25 point difference in my rating system which shows that LV should have a major upper hand throughout the game.

UNDERDOGS:

NE +7 (-110)

Yep, I am betting on the Patriot way to get it done against what many consider the favorites to repeat as champions. According to my advanced ranking system, these two teams are actually neck and neck with each other, and NE even has the slight edge due to their top five defense and TB falling pretty flat on defense the first three games.

DET ML (+130)

The second worst rated team in my model is CHI, trailing only the saddening NYJ. While DET hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, they rate just below league average on offense and will roll out a far better offensive line and quarterback group. DET has the worst rated defense, but I’ve seen the CHI offense in action and it might not be too hard to scheme up a few stops against them when they need it.

DEN ML (+100)

I know this isn’t traditionally an underdog, but BAL sits at a heftier moneyline price at -112 so technically it is an underdog in regards to the matchup. The two offenses have around the same statistical ranking this season, and while DEN is rated as the second best defense, BAL is way behind as the fifth worst.

TOTALS:

CLV vs. MIN o51.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses are top ten in the league when fully healthy when factoring successful play rate, explosive play rate, points per drive and offense scoring percentage. MIN defense has not proven that they’ll be able to slow down this juggernaut CLV offense, and as always the trio of Jefferson, Theilen and Cook can score a few times each game if all goes well.

NYG vs. NO u42.5 (-110)

NYG is beat up on offense, which will make it even harder to score and gain yardage on a top five total defense. On the year NYG has a pretty low explosive play rate at 8%, and the NO defense is sixth in yards per play at 4.7. The NO offense hasn’t necessarily shattered the stat sheet, as they have allowed a very high pressure rate (31.3%) and are bottom five in yards per play (4.3) as well as net yards per passing attempt (4.8).

HOU vs. BUF o47 (-110)

BUF has proven that they are capable of scoring 30+ points on a good defense, and although HOU is onto their backup rookie QB, the game script in this game could play in favor of an over set relatively low.

FAVORITES:

LAR -4 (-115)

Kyler Murray does not have any career success against LAR as they’ve held him to just a 75.8 rating with 11 sacks, 5 TD’s and 4 INT. They’ve also limited him as a rushing threat with just a 3.54 Y/A in 13 carries. The LAR look like a freight train that can’t be stopped, and their defense looks like it can hang with anyone. I’ll ride them to cover or at least win until something tells me otherwise.

NO -7 (-110)

NYG could be without many of their offensive weapons, which as I alluded to earlier could make it much harder for them to crack one of the best defenses in the league up to this point of the season. NO was ranked very high last season and has many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball, however I still think Jameis Winston is capable of managing this team to some impressive looking wins (as he already has twice).

GB -6.5 (-115)

Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL have been trending in opposite directions. PIT maintains a defensive advantage in this matchup with TJ Watt returning to the field, but statistically GB isn’t far behind. The reason to take the favorite here though is the differences in offense. There is a very clear and significant difference in the efficiency and effectiveness of both offenses, as PIT sits as the second worst offense in successful play rate with marginally lower yards per play and net yards per pass attempt numbers.

UNDERDOGS:

IND +5.5 (-110)

This big of a spread between divisional opponents seems like too much in this spot. Both teams are towards the bottom of the league in terms of statistical performance so far this year, and I think there’s enough flaws in the TEN defense (surprise surprise) to keep them from pulling away in this game. Keep in mind that IND kept it within a field goal against the clear cut #1 team right now in LAR.

CIN +3 (-110)

PIT does not have the best two game highlight reel, and the advanced ranking system backs that up. CIN actually holds a slight ranking advantage, which could be foreshadowing a close divisional game that might not involve as many explosive plays to allow for separation. It also doesn’t help that PIT is missing a couple of very important pieces to their team like their best WR.

LAC +7 (-115)

KC has played with fire their last three games, and has paid the price in two of them. Given this years advanced ranking system, KC is not the AFC juggernaut due to their poor defensive play (which could be because they’ve played two of the best offensive teams in the league to start the season) and LAC is just two spots behind them, thanks to their . Yet another divisional underdog I’m taking to cover the spread.

TOTALS:

NYJ vs. DEN o41.5 (-110)

The Jets are terrible, and will give up more than three touchdowns to this Broncos team. This total is set low, but I do think that there will be scoring opportunities for the Jets, as DEN ranks in the bottom of the league in defensive pressure percentage so far. It might not take much for this over to hit, given the low starting value.

NO vs. NE u42.5 (-110)

A great matchup between two of the best coaches the past 10-15 years. Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive pressure percentage and defensive yards per play, and to give me more confidence in the under, both teams are in the bottom 10 of offensive yards per play. Two great defenses with QB’s that might get tested is a recipe for the under.

TB vs. LAR u54.5 (-110)

The LAR defense that was the best in the league last year looks ready to return to that status. They’re well above average in every ranking statistic, and they still have an unstoppable force in Aaron Donald. At the same time, Brady was sacked three times last week against ATL. The game of the week shouldn’t feature all the fireworks we come to expect from these two teams. Here’s a preview on YouTube.

FAVORITES:

SF -3 (-115)

Per my ranking system, this is a huge mismatch in favor of SF. They have given Rodgers a hard time in recent years, and the way they can control the field position and pace of this game gives them the upper hand against GB, who through two weeks this season looks like there are some serious concerns. A win against DET does not convince me otherwise, especially when they were going toe to toe throughout the first half.

SEA ML (-125)

In case it isn’t already clear, Russell Wilson is a generational talent. It’s hard to go against him, especially in the first half of the season. The MIN offense has looked like it will go blow for blow with anyone in the league, but they have relied more on explosive plays rather than consistent yardage. SEA averages the most yards per play and is top six in points per drive and offensive success rate, oh they also have a bit of an explosive combination in Wilson and Lockett.

LV -3.5 (-110)

The surprise to start the season has been LV after upsetting the Ravens and Steelers in back to back games. MIA got bullied by one division opponent, and snuck by another with QB making his first ever NFL start. Rankings have this as a major mismatch, and I always trust the better QB to cover the spread when facing a backup.