Free NFL Bets – Week 4

CIN -3.5 (-110)

I know MIA is taking the world by storm right now, and rightfully so. Tua has been the second highest rated QB this season, and the duo of Waddle + Hill is impossible to contain. But, for some reason, Vegas has set the line more than a FG favorite toward CIN, so they know something that I don’t! Could be a hangover week for MIA.

Reflection: All the concern should be on Tua after this game, he never deserved to be in that spot. CIN covered and looked like the more rested, put together team but it was hard to celebrate this one. (He appears to be recovering nicely and not in serious pain anymore so good for him, we can celebrate a bit more knowing that).

BAL +3.5 (-110)

BAL has the highest rated QB this season in Lamar Jackson, leading an offense that he’s always been capable of scoring 30+ points with per game. BUF seems like the team to beat in the AFC, despite their loss down in MIA without all their secondary starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see crazy good QB numbers in this game, but the fact again here is the line is set more in BAL favor than I would have anticipated, so I am leaning on them having a good outing against a great AFC contender.

Reflection: Well it was almost an outright win for BAL, but the hook play is beautiful here and they lose by a field goal, so we win the bet! They got off to a fast start but teetered off towards the end, some questionable decisions may have been the deciding factor for them, but BUF proves to have fight in them and ability to execute a comeback with help from all sides of the ball.

ATL ML (+110)

CLE has shown to be a decent football team despite playing with their backup QB. Truth be told (look at the linked QB rankings), J. Brissett has played better than most other QB’s in the league! ATL is one of those ‘fun, but young and bad’ teams, which I think gives them a chance to put a few plays together that are enough to change the outcome of this one. Too close of a line when I think CLE clearly has the better roster/coach/scheme combination.

Reflection: Down to the wire and a really good matchup as predicted by Vegas, I was happy to be on the right side of this game. ATL were the underdogs still, but not by nearly as much as I thought they should be, and they managed to get off to a good start and ride that to a strong finish.

JAX ML (+220)

Eh, PHI could be the best team in the entire NFL (not enough conclusive evidence yet), but JAX has really turned some heads the past two weeks with incredible performances on both sides of the ball. Maybe there’s something to be said about D. Pederson coaching against PHI, where he won a super bowl. Or, maybe this is one of those games that the decision making and playmaking ability of T. Lawrence & J. Hurts will determine the outcome. I like juiced up underdogs like this, but never thought it would be JAX against a team as hot and loaded as PHI. Here goes nothing!

Reflection: It looked really good for about a quarter and a half, but then the turnover bug bit T. Lawrence numerous times (NFL record four lost fumbles) and they failed to do much of anything after that. PHI showed to be a good team, able to withstand a punch or two and come from behind. Made plays when they needed to and responded well over 60 minutes.

CAR ML (-120)

This is mostly a fade ARI play, because K. Murray is somewhat ineffective without playmaking WR’s (Hopkins/Kirk) and pass-catching RB’s (Edmonds). I don’t like betting to favor CAR, but I think this is another instance where I would have set the line probably -2.5 ARI, so it’s off enough for me to realize I’m not totally analyzing it correctly and someone with lots of information thinks CAR has an advantage.

Reflection: I said it in my write up above, but I hate betting to back CAR. There’s enough stats out there to reveal how bad of an offense they’ve had under Matt Rhule, but I’ll say they will definitely be on my do not bet list going forward. A mess all around that I don’t want to be a part of for now!

2022 NFL Mock Draft: 3rd Edition (of 5)

Now that the NFL season has finished, each team has solidified their spot in the draft order and us fans can begin even more speculation. You can see my other mock drafts here, so as the draft process moves along you are able to see in real-time the changes of certain players and teams.

Keep in mind, these picks are what I think the teams should do, not what they will do.

Enjoy:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
    • At least in this draft we genuinely don’t know who might get drafted first overall. Neal is a freak athlete that former #1 overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, will be thankful for going forward.
  2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
    • He will be the local favorite, and Hutchinson should have immediate impact on an up and coming Lions roster. He matches the mold of what Detroit is trying to build.
  3. Houston Texans: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
    • This might not be the direction that Houston takes, however it’s the direction the NFL is taking; edge rushers are extremely valuable. Thibodeaux has shown glimpses of being able to develop into a cornerstone on defense.
  4. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
    • Saleh just can’t pass up a generational prospect in the secondary. Hamilton could have a Minkah Fitzpatrick-like ability to take away parts of the field and limit big plays.
  5. New York Giants: Ikem Ekwonu, OL, NC State
    • Pro-football Network’s Ian Cummings believes NYG need to spend at least one of their picks protecting Daniel Jones, so they grab a safe and versatile option on the offensive line in Ekwonu.
  6. Carolina Panthers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
    • Sam Darnold has proven enough times that he is not worth starting for 17 games a season. Pickett is the safest QB and highly rated as the top QB in this class, as by draft analyst Ian Cummings.
  7. New York Giants (via CHI): Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
    • The highest drafted center in quite some time, Linderbaum and Ekwonu will anchor the offensive line for a generation. It’ll be easier to build a dynamic offense with these two players.
  8. Atlanta Falcons: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
    • There’s a lot of directions to go here, and some Falcons fans believe the ‘best player available’ is the best option. Burks might not fit that mold, but he’ll fit nicely into that offense to add some more stability.
  9. Denver Broncos: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
    • Even if Willis sits for a year, DEN can’t afford to not address the position in the off season. Willis has the best physical traits and talent of the QB’s in this years draft.
  10. New York Jets (via SEA): Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
    • They upgraded their secondary already this draft, so why not help out the first line of defense? Walker was a part of a historic college defense, so his college production might not tell the story. His athleticism and anticipation are off the charts for his size and position.
  11. Washington Football Team: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
    • One of if not the most impressive player during the bowl season, Dean looks ready to be a defensive leader. Adding his instincts and traits to a defense with good pieces already (just not at LB) will make a positive difference.
  12. Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
    • With a good showing against Alabama in his playoff game, Sauce Gardner could see his draft stock rise as high as MIN, who could use a game-ready corner.
  13. Cleveland Browns: Garret Wilson, WR, Ohio State
    • No doubt CLE needs a playmaker on the outside to replace what OBJ was supposed to be. Although they should primarily be a running team, getting a WR who can consistently get open and make contested catches might add another level to the offense.
  14. Baltimore Ravens: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
    • This is about as far as Stingley would drop in this draft. BAL loves to have a good secondary, so adding the talent and potential of Stingley will make that easier without their def. coordinator.
  15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA): George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
    • The most exciting team in the draft this year starts their first round trio of picks with a much needed boost in the front seven. Karlaftis can wreak havoc on offensive tackles with his power and relentlessness.
  16. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
    • Yet again, PHI boosts their front seven on defense, because it just makes too much sense. Lloyd is the perfect player to boost a front seven – he’s good at tackling and plays downhill on the ball more often than not.
  17. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
    • LAC cannot afford to pass up an upgrade to their horrific run defense. Davis will be an excellent wall for the defense and probably rotated in throughout the game situationally.
  18. New Orleans Saints: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
    • With the current WR core of NO, there is no way they can pass up the skillset of Williams at this spot. If Winston comes back (which he should) he gets an explosive WR to air it out with.
  19. Philadelphia Eagles: Andrew Booth Jr, CB, Clemson
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
    • With an offensive line as bad as PIT, taking the most versatile linemen in the draft is a no-brainer. If last year’s K. Green can earn a starting spot, this K. Green will be able to win a starting job at any position other than center.
  21. New England Patriots: Drake London, WR, USC
    • This just seems like a good fit for NE; Mac will have London to through to when under duress and/or in the redzone. A lot can change in an offense when one guy can get to so many catchable positions.
  22. Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
    • A deep WR class will start to make it’s run at some point in this draft. Olave was paired up with fellow first-rounder G. Wilson for his whole career, but breaking away from him could make Olave a bigger star, similar to Justin Jefferson’s storyline.
  23. Arizona Cardinals: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
    • The ARI offense looks like it has the pieces to succeed, and McDuffie has many intangibles that can help win football games immediately.
  24. Dallas Cowboys: Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan
    • Traditionally DAL has a top tier offensive line, however they are trending away from that given their current age and skillsets at the position. They need to make a pick here to stabilize the offensive line for years.
  25. Buffalo Bills: Devonta Wyatt, DL, Georgia
    • If the top five WR’s are taken, don’t be surprised to see BUF boost their defensive line depth, which was put to the test (and failed) in their final game against KC. Wyatt would be the fourth member of last years Georgia team to be drafted in the first round.
  26. Tennessee Titans: Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan
    • Ojabo falls in this mock more than most, due to his newness to the sport and overall raw potential. TB needs to generate more pressure without blitzing and Ojabo can make that happen.
  28. Green Bay Packers: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
    • Well, a disappointing finish will certainly call for some changes in GB. For starters, they need someone to trust catching the ball other than Davante Adams, despite who may be throwing it to him.
  29. Miami Dolphins (via SF): Trevor Penning, OL, Northern Iowa
    • Penning being left here would be a blessing for the Dolphins, who get this pick from the 49ers. It would boost the offensive line talent immensely and immediately, which MIA has shown they desperately need.
  30. Kansas City Chiefs: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
    • Mahomes and the new offensive line will be fine without taking an offensive player here. So, drafting a tremendous athlete that will hunt down the ball and cover in the slot can improve something else that struggled last year.
  31. Cincinnati Bengals: Sean Rhyan, OL, UCLA
  32. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
    • I couldn’t not include three QB’s in the first round, because I’ll probably place a bet near the draft at o2.5 taken. So, Corral gets to enjoy the bench for a year or so and then will inherit one of the leagues best young offensive line groups.

Just missed the first round:

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State University

Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State

Derion Kendrick, CB, Georgia

Logan Hall, DT, Houston

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Round One, 2nd Edition (of 5)

A couple of things should make for this mock draft to be more accurate and fulfilling than last December. First, the college bowl games have been played (or cancelled in some cases), giving scouts another chance to evaluate players’ attributes.

Additionally, the draft order is further along to being set. There is still one week left in the NFL season, however there’s a few less possibilities now that teams have just one game remaining.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
  2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
  3. Houston Texans: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
  4. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
  5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, OL, Alabama
  6. Carolina Panthers: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
  7. New York Jets (via SEA): Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
  8. New York Giants (via CHI): Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
  9. Washington Football Team: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
  10. Atlanta Falcons: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
  11. Denver Broncos: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
  12. Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
  13. Cleveland Browns: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio state
  14. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
  15. New Orleans Saints: George Karlafits, DE, Purdue
  16. Baltimore Ravens: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan University
  18. Las Vegas Raiders: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
  19. Philadelphia Eagles: David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
  20. Los Angeles Chargers: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
  21. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND): Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
  22. Miami Dolphins (via SF): Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M
  23. New England Patriots: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
  24. Arizona Cardinals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
  25. Buffalo Bills: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
  26. Cincinnati Bengals: Sean Rhyan, IOL, UCLA
  27. Dallas Cowboys: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
  28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
  29. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
  30. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Drake London, WR, USC
  31. Tennessee Titans: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
  32. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

Just missed the first round:

  • DeMarvin Leal, DE/DT, Texas A&M
  • Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
  • A. Booth Jr, CB, Clemson
  • Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
  • Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
  • Darian Kinnard, OL, Kentucky

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Round One,1st Edition (of many)

The most speculative time of the year is nearing again, so it’s only right that we make predictions about an event that won’t happen for another five months!

As I created this mock draft, I decided on the player I believe to have the best potential for impact now and in future years for each team, given their roster, performance and draft history. This is in no way a ranking of player skill levels, only an educated guess on each organization’s million-dollar decision.

  1. Detroit Lions: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OL, Alabama
  3. Houston Texans: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
  4. New York Jets: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
  5. New York Jets (via SEA): Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
  6. New York Giants (via CHI): Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
  7. New York Giants: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
  8. Atlanta Falcons: Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
  9. Carolina Panthers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
  10. Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinatti
  11. New Orleans Saints: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio state
  12. Philadelphia Eagles: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
  13. Philadelphia Eagle (via MIA): Trent Mcduffie, CB, Washington
  14. Denver Broncos: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
  15. Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
  16. Cleveland Browns: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
  17. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
  19. Miami Dolphins (via SF): Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
  20. Washington Football Team: Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
  21. Buffalo Bills: Drake Jackson, EDGE, USC
  22. Cincinnati Bengals: Sean Rhyan, IOL, UCLA
  23. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
  24. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
  25. Dallas Cowboys: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
  26. Kansas City Chiefs: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
  27. Baltimore Ravens: Darian Kinnard, IOL, Kentucky
  28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
  29. Tennessee Titans: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
  30. Green Bay Packers: Drake London, WR, USC
  31. New England Patriots: Christian Harris, LB, Alabama
  32. Arizona Cardinals: Logan Hall, DL, Houston

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