Tag: NFL Research

NFL QB Power Rankings: Week 18 – Statistical Data Model

To save time and debate, I created an objective answer to who the best QB in the NFL is right now. Below is the statistical ratings for each QB, and the categories/weights used to conduct the data analysis. For a more detailed and custom view, download the file below the embedded ratings.

NFL QB ModelDownload

The following chart illustrates the statistical relationship between variables and Win %, an important dependent variable in this case. These insights give us reason to use EPA, QBR, ANY/A, PFF grade and Passer Rating in our data model to measure QB performance.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society

While measuring the relationship to wins in the same season is valuable, identifying the relationship to predict future season data is extremely relevant in this case. This gives us ideas for the weight of each category (which can always be adjusted), and PFF grade should clearly be the highest. Followed by a substantial gap with EPA and ANY/A and finished off with QBR and Passer Rating.

Data visualization by Tej Seth & Joey DiCresce for Michigan Football Analytics Society. *The r-squared values are low, as the r-squared value for win% and next season win% is really low at .07. Football is hard to predict.

The data will be collected from Pro Football Reference (Passer Rating, QBR, ANY/A), PFF (PFF Grades), and ESPN (EPA).

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NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cleveland Browns

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these five colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cleveland Browns since 1976:

University of Miami (FL), 15

  • Sheldrick Redwine
  • Chad Thomas
  • David Njoku
  • Duke Johnson
  • Travis Benjamin
  • Leon Williams
  • Kellen Winslow
  • Joaquin Gonzalez
  • James Jackson
  • Andre King
  • A.C. Tellison
  • Gregg Rakoczy
  • Willie Smith
  • Rocky Belk
  • Scott Nicolas

University of Southern California, 15

  • Cody Kessler
  • Randall Telfer
  • Hayes Pullard
  • Jordan Cameron
  • Kaluka Maiava
  • Daylon McCutcheon
  • Scott Galbraith
  • Chip Banks
  • Charles White
  • Paul McDonald
  • Rich Dimler
  • Clay Matthews
  • Kenny Randle
  • John McKay
  • Pete Adams

University of Arizona, 13

  • Scooby Wright III
  • Trevin Wade
  • Syndric Steptoe
  • Dennis Northcutt
  • Manuia Savea
  • Mike Robinson
  • Cleveland Crosby
  • Charles Nash
  • Brian Murray
  • Ransom Terrell
  • Bob Crum
  • Larry McKee
  • Ricky Stevenson

Texas A&M University, 12

  • Damion Ratley
  • Myles Garrett
  • Johnny Manziel
  • Michael Jameson
  • Steve Bullitt
  • Randy Dausin
  • Don Jones
  • Keith Baldwin
  • Mike Whitwell
  • Cody Risien
  • Robert Jackson
  • Leonard Forey

Ohio State University, 11

  • Tommy Togial
  • Denzel Ward
  • Brian Robiskie
  • Darnell Sanders
  • Craig Powell
  • Mark Krerowicz
  • Tom Skladany
  • Jim Cope
  • Dan Scott
  • Dick Wakefield
  • Larry Zelina

Despite having many picks taken from Miami (FL) and USC, you have to read through about 30 names on the list until you find the first name that was ever household.

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NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Cincinnati Bengals

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these four colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Cincinnati Bengals since 1976:

Ohio State University, 15

  • Michael Jordan
  • Billy Price
  • Sam Hubbard
  • Reid Fragel
  • Dan Herron
  • Dan Wilkinson
  • Jeff Cothran
  • Steve Tovar
  • Sonny Gordon
  • Gary Williams
  • Ray Griffin
  • Pete Johnson
  • Archie Griffin
  • Ken Kuhn
  • Tom Klaban

University of Michigan, 14

  • Chris Evans
  • Ryan Glasgow
  • Morgan Trent
  • Leon Hall
  • Chris Perry
  • Glen Steele
  • Rod Payne
  • William Carr
  • Tony McGee
  • Mike Hammerstein
  • Eric Kattus
  • Ben Needham
  • Ron Simpkins
  • Mark Donahue

University of Georgia, 13

  • Trey Hill
  • Shawn Williams
  • Orson Charles
  • A.J. Green
  • Clint Boling
  • Geno Atkins
  • David Pollack
  • Odell Thurman
  • Robert Geathers
  • David McCluskey
  • Rex Robinson
  • Mike Wilson
  • Joel Parrish

Arizona State University, 10

  • Renell Wren
  • Christian Westerman
  • Marcus Hardison
  • Levi Jones
  • Victory Leyva
  • Lynn James
  • Skip McClendon
  • Jim Warne
  • David Fulcher
  • Don Kern

Auburn University, 10

  • Deshaun Davis
  • Carl Lawson
  • C.J. Uzomah
  • Pat Sims
  • Kenny Irons
  • Rudi Johnson
  • Takeo Spikes
  • Willie Anderson
  • Lamar Rodgers
  • Craig Ogletree

Throughout this series, it’s pretty common to see teams like Ohio State be a common pipeline for NFL talent. However, the interesting fact lies with the secondary schools like Auburn and Arizona State. For whatever reason, the Bengals have tried and trusted these programs to provide next-level talent.

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NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Baltimore Ravens

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these four colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Baltimore Ravens since 1996:

University of Oklahoma, 11

  • Marquise Brown
  • Ben Powers
  • Orlando Brown Jr.
  • Mark Andrews
  • Allen Patrick
  • Chris Chester
  • Mark Clayton
  • Dan Cody
  • Trent Smith
  • Martin Chase
  • Sammy Williams

University of Alabama, 11

  • Anthony Averett
  • Bradley Bozeman
  • Marlon Humphrey
  • Tim Williams
  • C.J. Mosley
  • Courtney Upshaw
  • Terrence Cody
  • Le’Ron McClain
  • Jarret Johnson
  • Terry Jones
  • Ralph Staten

University of Notre Dame, 8

  • Devin Hayes
  • Miles Boykin
  • Ronnie Stanley
  • Kapron Lewis-Moore
  • Tom Zbikowski
  • Gerome Sapp
  • Anthony Weaver
  • Javin Hunter

University of Miami (FL), 6

  • Tommy Streeter
  • Tavares Gooden
  • Ed Reed
  • Richard Mercier
  • Duane Starks
  • Ray Lewis

This list of players and colleges shouldn’t really surprise anyone if we remember that the Ravens franchise was founded in 1996, so naturally they have selected players from top tier schools that have dominated most of those years.

It could be argued that all-time, with emphasis on the last 30 years, these programs are the best college football programs ever. So in summary, the Baltimore Ravens look at the best to find their best.

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NFL Teams’ College Favorites: Pittsburgh Steelers

Have you ever wondered where your favorite NFL team likes to look for next-level talent? When coaches, general managers, and scouts create a plan, it often includes ‘shopping’ at places they trust. In this series, the most popular colleges for each NFL team will be discovered.

With data pulled from Pro Football Reference, these five colleges have the most players selected in the draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers since 1975:

Penn State University, 14

  • Pat Freiermuth
  • Marcus Allen
  • Jesse James
  • A.Q. Shipley
  • Matt Kranchick
  • Jon Witman
  • Eric Ravotti
  • Darren Perry
  • Leroy Thompson
  • Tim Johnson
  • Gregg Garrity
  • Matt Bahr
  • Ron Coder
  • Greg Murphy

Ohio State University, 13

  • Doran Grant
  • Ryan Shazier
  • Mike Adams
  • Cameron Heyward
  • Thaddeus Gibson
  • Dough Worthington
  • Santonio Holmes
  • Rodney Bailey
  • Mike Vrabel
  • Scottie Graham
  • Jeff Graham
  • Ken Fritz
  • Larry Kain

University of Nebraska, 12

  • Carlos Davis
  • Keith Williams
  • Chad Kelsay
  • Kris Brown
  • Brendan Stai
  • Donta Jones
  • Barron Miles
  • Richard Bell
  • Mark Behning
  • Mark Dufresne
  • Wonder Monds
  • Marvin Crenshaw

University of Florida, 12

  • Chris Rainey
  • Marcus Gilbert
  • Maurkice Pouncey
  • Dallas Baker
  • Max Starks
  • Hesham Ismail
  • Huey Richardson
  • Ernie Mills
  • David Little
  • Alvin Cowans
  • Jimmy Stephens
  • Wayne Fields

University of Michigan, 12

  • Devin Bush
  • Zach Gentry
  • LaMarr Woodley
  • Larry Foote
  • Jerame Tuman
  • Dean Dingman
  • Chris Calloway
  • David Arnold
  • Craig Dunaway
  • Russell Davis
  • Jim Smith
  • Dave Brown

Clearly the Pittsburgh Steelers have a tradition and trend of selecting players from Big Ten universities. This has reaped some incredible benefits as players like TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward and Santonio Holmes have come from Big Ten schools.

Will the Steelers look to reload with some more players from the Big Ten conference in the 2022 NFL Draft? Perhaps, as Iowa OL Tyler Linderbaum has to be on their radar at the moment, as well as some players available in later rounds such as Northwestern S Brandon Joseph and Minnesota OL John Michael Schmitz.

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