NFL Bets – Week 5

JAX -7.5 (-110)

JAX played well at the start of last weeks game, however I still think of them as JAX, and I had this spread closer to a field goal than a touchdown. If Vegas is confident that the collapse against PHI was due to weather/circumstance then I will follow their lead. HOU is one of the ‘young but fun and bad’ teams that are fun to watch and easy to bet with or against because it’s good entertainment regardless.

NO -4.5 (-110)

I for sure thought SEA would be favored in this game, considering NO played a long game across the sea, literally. But also because G. Smith has been the highest rated QB this season, and he looks to be in complete control of an actual dynamic offense! I didn’t think Vegas would lay more than a field goal in NO favor here, and I even had SEA favored in this one, so I got to side with a sizable win for NO due to understanding the betting markets/lines.

NE -2.5 (-110)

I don’t know the status of M. Jones, but if he is not able to return for this game I am unsure of why NE is favored to be quite honest. DET moves the ball and scores at will, better than anyone else in the entire NFL! I’m sure the NE defense will slow them down, however originally I didn’t think NE had the passing game to attack DET big secondary weakness. Seeing the line in favor of NE makes me want to have a stake in this one, and I don’t typically have a problem betting Bill Belichick as an underdog.

NYJ+3.5 (-110)

The loss of Tua is a huge one for the NFL and especially for MIA, but I still thought they looked good without him and have plenty of pieces throughout the roster to absorb his lost. Especially against a team as bad as NYJ, I thought they could still cover by at least a touchdown. However, Vegas thinks otherwise and I am not one to go against their expertise, so the close line tells me to side with the team that I don’ expect to put up a great fight.

Free NFL Bets – Week 4

CIN -3.5 (-110)

I know MIA is taking the world by storm right now, and rightfully so. Tua has been the second highest rated QB this season, and the duo of Waddle + Hill is impossible to contain. But, for some reason, Vegas has set the line more than a FG favorite toward CIN, so they know something that I don’t! Could be a hangover week for MIA.

Reflection: All the concern should be on Tua after this game, he never deserved to be in that spot. CIN covered and looked like the more rested, put together team but it was hard to celebrate this one. (He appears to be recovering nicely and not in serious pain anymore so good for him, we can celebrate a bit more knowing that).

BAL +3.5 (-110)

BAL has the highest rated QB this season in Lamar Jackson, leading an offense that he’s always been capable of scoring 30+ points with per game. BUF seems like the team to beat in the AFC, despite their loss down in MIA without all their secondary starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see crazy good QB numbers in this game, but the fact again here is the line is set more in BAL favor than I would have anticipated, so I am leaning on them having a good outing against a great AFC contender.

Reflection: Well it was almost an outright win for BAL, but the hook play is beautiful here and they lose by a field goal, so we win the bet! They got off to a fast start but teetered off towards the end, some questionable decisions may have been the deciding factor for them, but BUF proves to have fight in them and ability to execute a comeback with help from all sides of the ball.

ATL ML (+110)

CLE has shown to be a decent football team despite playing with their backup QB. Truth be told (look at the linked QB rankings), J. Brissett has played better than most other QB’s in the league! ATL is one of those ‘fun, but young and bad’ teams, which I think gives them a chance to put a few plays together that are enough to change the outcome of this one. Too close of a line when I think CLE clearly has the better roster/coach/scheme combination.

Reflection: Down to the wire and a really good matchup as predicted by Vegas, I was happy to be on the right side of this game. ATL were the underdogs still, but not by nearly as much as I thought they should be, and they managed to get off to a good start and ride that to a strong finish.

JAX ML (+220)

Eh, PHI could be the best team in the entire NFL (not enough conclusive evidence yet), but JAX has really turned some heads the past two weeks with incredible performances on both sides of the ball. Maybe there’s something to be said about D. Pederson coaching against PHI, where he won a super bowl. Or, maybe this is one of those games that the decision making and playmaking ability of T. Lawrence & J. Hurts will determine the outcome. I like juiced up underdogs like this, but never thought it would be JAX against a team as hot and loaded as PHI. Here goes nothing!

Reflection: It looked really good for about a quarter and a half, but then the turnover bug bit T. Lawrence numerous times (NFL record four lost fumbles) and they failed to do much of anything after that. PHI showed to be a good team, able to withstand a punch or two and come from behind. Made plays when they needed to and responded well over 60 minutes.

CAR ML (-120)

This is mostly a fade ARI play, because K. Murray is somewhat ineffective without playmaking WR’s (Hopkins/Kirk) and pass-catching RB’s (Edmonds). I don’t like betting to favor CAR, but I think this is another instance where I would have set the line probably -2.5 ARI, so it’s off enough for me to realize I’m not totally analyzing it correctly and someone with lots of information thinks CAR has an advantage.

Reflection: I said it in my write up above, but I hate betting to back CAR. There’s enough stats out there to reveal how bad of an offense they’ve had under Matt Rhule, but I’ll say they will definitely be on my do not bet list going forward. A mess all around that I don’t want to be a part of for now!

The TRUTH Behind ‘Featured’ Parlays or ‘Super Boosts’ on Sports Betting Apps

In the past two weeks, there was 61 total ‘boosted’ parlays across these major sportsbooks; BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars and Barstool. 55 of those boosted parlays lost.

Now, we will acknowledge the odds of these parlays, because even though some of them are boosted, they are still relatively low probability bets. Given the data imported and scraped from Sports Betting Dime, we see that the average odds for these parlays was +522.38.

If a user of these major sportsbook placed $10 on each of these parlays over the two weeks, that unlucky user would have lost $416.98, with a return on investment of -216.03%.

These shocking insights would suggest a strategy to identify what the boosts are for specific games, and pinpoint if there are any individual markets to target a ‘fade’ of these boosted parlays. The sportsbooks offer these ‘boosts’ and ‘promotions’ for a reason!

Here is a copy of the scraped data and calcuations:

    March Madness 2022 – Picks and Predictions for EVERY Game

    One of the most wonderful times of the year; march madness in college basketball. As a fan of many sports, I can confidently say there’s not much like the first weekend’s onslaught of games seemingly non stop.

    So, to give myself extra rooting interest in every game that I watch, I decided to pick every single game of the first round against the spread. This idea has been done before so I am no pioneer, but it makes for fun engagement and as previously mentioned it gives me a little bit of rooting interest.

    Here is the disclaimer though; I am not placing actual wagers on these matchups, and a strategy of betting every game in a sport usually doesn’t work well. My goal is to get either 50% of these picks correct or break even on my bankroll.

    Predictions for Every Game:

    Thursday, March 17th:

    Boise St vs. Memphis -2.5 (-110)

    Baylor vs. Norfolk St +22 (-110)

    North Carolina -2.5 (-130) vs. Marquette

    Kentucky -16.5 (-127) vs. Saint Peters

    St Mary’s vs. Indiana +3 (-110)

    San Diego State -2.5 (+100) vs. Creighton

    Arkansas -5 (-110) vs. Vermont

    Murray St ML (-115) vs. San Francisco

    UCLA vs. Akron +15 (-148)

    Kansas vs. Texas Southern +22.5 (-110)

    Colorado St. ML (+105) vs. Michigan

    Uconn -6.5 (-110) vs. New Mexico St

    Iowa vs. Richmond +10.5 (-110)

    Providence -2 (-110) vs. South Dakota St

    Gonzaga -22.5 (-110) vs. Georgia State

    Tennessee vs. Longwood +18.5 (-110)

    Friday, March 18th:

    Auburn -15.5 (-110) vs. Jacksonville State

    Texas Tech vs. Montana State +14.5 (+105)

    Purdue -16.5 (+105) vs. Yale

    Villanova vs. Delaware +15.5 (-110)

    USC vs. Miami ML (+110)

    Alabama -4 (-110) vs. Notre Dame

    Texas ML (-110) vs. Virginia Tech

    Illinois -7.5 (-110) vs. Chattanooga

    Duke -17 (-143) vs. CSU Fullerton

    LSU vs. Iowa State ML (+160)

    Arizona vs. Wright State +21.5 (-110)

    Houston -10 (+120) vs. UAB

    Wisconsin vs. Colgate +8 (-110)

    NFL Same-game PARLAYS: Wild Card Weekend – SATURDAY

    Thanks to FanDuel’s same-game parlay promotion, I will be placing $200 on same game parlays over the course of the Wild Card Playoff weekend to receive $100 of credit back, regardless if my parlays win or lose.

    LV vs. CIN (+524):

    J. Chase TD Scorer, +100

    D. Carr u257.5 pass yards, -114

    Alt points u51.5, -150

    LV vs. CIN (+482):

    D. Waller o59.5 rec yards, -110

    2H Total Points o23.5, -112

    J. Chase o70.5 rec yards, -110

    Reflection: The first half of this game is what I expected the second half to look like, with 33 points scored. I anticipated OAK being down some and relying on their passing game and chunk plays from Waller, which they got on occasion but not enough. Ja’Marr Chase is a top ten WR in the NFL, and his receiving props should be set at 100 every week, if not more.

    NE vs. BUF (+499):

    D. Harris TD Scorer, +120

    J. Allen o243.5 pass yards, -114

    C. Beasley o33.5 rec yards, -110

    NE vs. BUF (+609):

    D. Knox u32.5 rec yards, -110

    D. Singletary u59.5 rush yards, -110

    M. Jones u204.4 pass yards, -110

    NFL Rookie of the Year: Who Was Right About Ja’Marr Chase?

    Remember that historic 2019 LSU offense that shattered NCAA records? Well, turns out the connection from that QB (Joe Burrow) to that top WR (Ja’Marr Chase) is still successful at the next level – very successful. Chase is soon to be crowned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year while helping the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North.

    After drafting Chase 5th overall, the Bengals took a big gamble on boosting their WR core and establishing a top-tier QB/WR duo, rather than drafting a franchise offensive linemen to protect what they already had in Burrow/Mixon. That gamble returned 81 catches, 1,455 yards, 13 TD’s, and a league best 18.1 yards per reception.

    Considering the opening odds at Ja’Marr Chase +1500 to win OROY, if a Bengals fan or an advanced sports bettor placed a $10 bet on Chase to win, it will soon pay out $160. Think about that value in the upcoming draft; offensive players like WR Jameson Williams and QB Matt Corral could have great rookie seasons depending on where they land.

    Many believed in the Bengals’ vision and Chase’ ability, including:

    Max Staley, FanDuel

    “That sounds like a Rookie of the Year recipe.”

    Hitting the nail on the head multiple times, Staley correctly envisioned the Burrow to Chase connection being special at the next level. Not only that, in his writing he discusses the type of athlete and talent Chase is by himself. That was on display this entire season.

    This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase Rookie of the Year Odds Are Disrespectful

    Andrew Lamers, Fansided

    “It could prove to be an immediate payoff for the rookie receiver and his young quarterback.”

    As I mentioned in the opening parts of this post, the 2019 LSU offense was dynamic and truly legendary. Burrow and Chase were MAJOR contributors to that success. There was much debate about protecting Burrow or giving Burrow a great weapon, and it’s nice to recognize the type of player they drafted instead of P. Sewell.

    This is his article: Why Ja’Marr Chase will win Offensive Rookie of the Year

    Justin Bruni, To the Hizzy Fantasy Sports

    “Out of the gate, he offers NFL-Ready skillsets and a five-star bond with his quarterback.”

    If you haven’t noticed by now, a common theme is that people who were confident in the Bengals pick of Ja’Marr chase had a vision of the QB/WR chemistry working at the next level, enticing some to take props on his season receiving yards. Although Bruni was wrong about the other Bengals WR to surpass 1,000 yards, his ideas were accurately displaced.

    This is his article: Ja’Marr Chase 2021 Receiving Yards Prop

    Going forward, I am curious to see what teams try to replicate the ‘formula’ of getting top-tier college QB/WR teammates to make the learning curves easier and provide a lower risk option.

    NCAA National Championship Bets: Alabama vs. Georgia

    If you’re a fan of college football, or even if you just pay attention to the big games and big schools, it was no doubt that the two best teams in the sport are the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs.

    During this national championship, I am excited to see how a few things play out including Bama’s offensive firepower without Metchie III, as well as if Bama’s defense can continue the hot streak they have been playing with. Here are my picks:

    Alabama Money Line +125

    This could end up being a trap, one that I have fallen victim to before. The line at Georgia -2.5 feels wrong. Based on everything that has unfolded recently, Bama should be the favorite in this game by about a FG.

    Since they’re not, I’ll definitely take them at plus-money odds to win outright on the money line. This game is truly a toss up for me, and I probably would take Georgia if their money line price was plus money too.

    QB Bryce Young torched the Georgia defense last time out, and it seems like the Alabama offense can operate while supporting the pass AND the run game as the primary force. I expect both teams to take their punches and I’m rooting for an ending like the last time these two teams played in a championship:

    NFL Same-game PARLAYS: Week 18

    All odds and props provided from FanDuel Sportsbook.

    PIT vs. BAL (+575):

    C. Claypool o50.0 rec yards

    N. Harris u71.5 rush yards

    T. Huntley o50.0 rush yards

    Reflection: Claypool was utilized as a runner and had 33 yards (team leader) in that category to keep his total below 50. Other two were great hits. Tough loss.

    CHI vs. MIN (+1141):

    D. Mooney TD Scorer

    K. Cousins u249.5 pass yards

    MIN ML

    Reflection: Well, MIN won and D. Mooney was active. He wasn’t active in the end zone however and ultimately K. Cousins finished with exactly 250 passing yards total, .5 above the prop. We don’t talk about those though since Mooney’s ruled it out anyways!

    SF vs. LAR (+724)

    G. Kittle TD Scorer

    M. Stafford o277.5 pass yards

    E. Mitchell o68.5 rush yards

    NYJ vs. BUF (+876)

    M. Carter o38.5 rush yards

    S. Diggs u70.5 rec yards

    D. Knox TD Scorer

    NFL Week 5 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Bills, Rams and more

    All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

    My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from given my ranking system, not to achieve a high profit margin (yet).

    UNDERDOGS:

    CIN +3 (-110)

    My ranking system likes CIN, and the eye test really likes Joe Burrow. With him at QB, the offense runs like a well oiled machine most of the time, similar to Aaron Rodgers and GB. Surprisingly, the CIN defense ranks in the top five in points per drive, points per 100 yards, yards per play and has the third lowest scoring percentage allowed. That could prove to be the difference maker in this one.

    BUF ML (+130)

    It’s crazy for me to phantom betting against the combo of Mahomes + Reid, however anytime I can get a moneyline price this good for a super bowl contender, I might as well take it. Especially when the KC defense is among the worst in the league and we all know what the BUF offense is capable of (top five in scoring percentage, 3 straight dominant performances and last years MVP runner up).

    SF +5.5 (-110)

    ARI has been the best team in football this year according to the eye test, my model, and by record. But, this is a tough divisional opponent that will have the ability to neutralize some of ARI weapons on offense. These defenses are rated almost identical in my model, and if Trey Lance’ running ability can keep Kyler Murray off of the field, SF will have an easier time getting through this one.

    TOTALS:

    CHI vs. LV u44.5 (-110)

    With CHI having such abysmal passing numbers this year and LV actually holding their ground through the air, I don’t expect many explosive plays or even much consistent offense in this one. CHI does have the defensive personnel to stifle Derek Carr similar to what LAC did to him last week and if that happens an under could very well be in play.

    GB vs CIN o50.5 (-110)

    Both of these defenses have played above expectations at times this year, but I do believe these two offenses have great leaders under center that can lead to a high 20’s scoring affair. CIN defense has well above average defense ratings (4th best overall), but facing Aaron Rodgers is a different task than Big Ben or rookie Trevor Lawrence.

    NO vs. WFT u43.5 (-110)

    Neither defense played up to their potential last week with brutal showings that resulted in a loss. However, NO hasn’t proved they totally can totally score at will with Jameis yet and although Heinecke has posted solid stats this year, I think this NO defense that ranks near the top in many categories can cause WFT to resort to their rushing attack and shorten the game.

    FAVORITES:

    LAR ML (-134)

    I bet on LAR last week and it ended up being the wrong read, so surely this week they find their way back to the win column. LAR holds a pretty decent edge on SEA in my overall rankings, and on a per drive basis their defense is almost a half point better. I’m also still confident that Matt Stafford makes this LAR offense one of the most dangerous in the league (they are rated #1 in my rankings).

    CAR ML (-188)*

    This is near the most I’ll ever lay down for a straight moneyline bet at -188. CAR has the type of defense that will win them games from that unit alone. They were picked apart last week but they are a half point better than PHI on a points per drive basis, as well as a full yard better in yards per play. CAR is easy to have confidence in for this matchup considering the common opponent played in back to back weeks didn’t give them as hard of a time as they did PHI.

    *If RB McCaffrey is playing

    LV -5.5 (-110)

    Without David Montgomery, CHI could be without their most reliable and consistent form of offense through the first four games of the season. CHI has the lowest passing NY/A in the NFL at just 3.9, and the LV defense allows the fourth lowest NY/A at just 5.5. Overall there is nearly a 25 point difference in my rating system which shows that LV should have a major upper hand throughout the game.

    PARLAY: DAL, CAR, TEN +222

    NFL Week 4 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Patriots, Rams, Browns and more

    All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

    My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.

    UNDERDOGS:

    NE +7 (-110)

    Yep, I am betting on the Patriot way to get it done against what many consider the favorites to repeat as champions. According to my advanced ranking system, these two teams are actually neck and neck with each other, and NE even has the slight edge due to their top five defense and TB falling pretty flat on defense the first three games.

    DET ML (+130)

    The second worst rated team in my model is CHI, trailing only the saddening NYJ. While DET hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, they rate just below league average on offense and will roll out a far better offensive line and quarterback group. DET has the worst rated defense, but I’ve seen the CHI offense in action and it might not be too hard to scheme up a few stops against them when they need it.

    DEN ML (+100)

    I know this isn’t traditionally an underdog, but BAL sits at a heftier moneyline price at -112 so technically it is an underdog in regards to the matchup. The two offenses have around the same statistical ranking this season, and while DEN is rated as the second best defense, BAL is way behind as the fifth worst.

    TOTALS:

    CLV vs. MIN o51.5 (-110)

    Both of these offenses are top ten in the league when fully healthy when factoring successful play rate, explosive play rate, points per drive and offense scoring percentage. MIN defense has not proven that they’ll be able to slow down this juggernaut CLV offense, and as always the trio of Jefferson, Theilen and Cook can score a few times each game if all goes well.

    NYG vs. NO u42.5 (-110)

    NYG is beat up on offense, which will make it even harder to score and gain yardage on a top five total defense. On the year NYG has a pretty low explosive play rate at 8%, and the NO defense is sixth in yards per play at 4.7. The NO offense hasn’t necessarily shattered the stat sheet, as they have allowed a very high pressure rate (31.3%) and are bottom five in yards per play (4.3) as well as net yards per passing attempt (4.8).

    HOU vs. BUF o47 (-110)

    BUF has proven that they are capable of scoring 30+ points on a good defense, and although HOU is onto their backup rookie QB, the game script in this game could play in favor of an over set relatively low.

    FAVORITES:

    LAR -4 (-115)

    Kyler Murray does not have any career success against LAR as they’ve held him to just a 75.8 rating with 11 sacks, 5 TD’s and 4 INT. They’ve also limited him as a rushing threat with just a 3.54 Y/A in 13 carries. The LAR look like a freight train that can’t be stopped, and their defense looks like it can hang with anyone. I’ll ride them to cover or at least win until something tells me otherwise.

    NO -7 (-110)

    NYG could be without many of their offensive weapons, which as I alluded to earlier could make it much harder for them to crack one of the best defenses in the league up to this point of the season. NO was ranked very high last season and has many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball, however I still think Jameis Winston is capable of managing this team to some impressive looking wins (as he already has twice).

    GB -6.5 (-115)

    Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL have been trending in opposite directions. PIT maintains a defensive advantage in this matchup with TJ Watt returning to the field, but statistically GB isn’t far behind. The reason to take the favorite here though is the differences in offense. There is a very clear and significant difference in the efficiency and effectiveness of both offenses, as PIT sits as the second worst offense in successful play rate with marginally lower yards per play and net yards per pass attempt numbers.

    PARLAY: DET, CLV, WFT +660

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