Tag: Phillies

08/26 MLB Bets

Dodgers vs. Padres

Rating: 2.5 out of 5.

Under 7.5 (-102). After last nights thrilling game, these two teams have got to be exhausted and will be stuck facing two of the best strikeout guys in league history throughout their careers. Both pitchers have a K rate higher than 33.3% against the respective rosters, and both offenses rank outside the top 20 for wOBA, wRC+ and BABIP the past two weeks. These are how well the starting pitchers have been in the past month:

StatScherzerDarvish
wOBA allowed.259.334
K%32.1%36.9%
WHIP0.991.15
FIP2.954.83
xFIP3.212.26

It may look like the immediate upper hand goes to Scherzer and the Dodgers, but Darvish’ career numbers against the Dodgers lineup are good enough to do a double take, and feel confident taking the under in this game. See for yourself:

Baseball Savant

Nationals vs. Marlins

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

WSH tto3.5 (-110). Both pitchers have relatively good stats against the current opposing rosters, which is probably why this total is set low. However, RHP Hernandez has a pretty high 6.57 FIP in the past month, and I’m not convinced he will hold the Nationals at bay like he did with much weaker offenses in CHC & PIT in his earlier starts this year. WSH has a patient offense, ranking second in BB rate at 11.3% the last two weeks, but also rank 10th in wOBA at .335 and 11th in wRC+ in that same time frame. WSH averages 4.57 runs per game on the road this year, this is a good number for bettors!

Giants vs. Mets

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Giants ML (-118). Nothing wrong with betting the favorite when this favorite happens to be the best team at winning games, like I have mentioned before! RHP Carrasco owns a 1.65 WHIP, 5.68 FIP and a .411 wOBA against him in the past month of action. He doesn’t have a single quality start all year, and the Giants will probably get to him early and often, despite his career success against the current roster. LHP Wood has been good against this Mets roster in his career as well, but he comes into this matchup with a 1.39 WHIP, 3.43 FIP and a .322 wOBA against him in the past month giving him the slight recency edge for starting pitching. The Mets are one of the worst teams at hitting lefties this year, their wOBA is .249 (27th) against LHP, and they only have a wRC+ of 53 (27th).

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Diamondbacks F5 ML (+118). I like the juice enough here to trust the numbers. Certain numbers would indicate that this PHI offense is the worst in baseball as of late. In the past two weeks, they are second to last in wRC+, wOBA, and dead last in runs scored with 38. On the other hand, ARI ranks seventh in wRC+, fourth in wOBA and 10th in runs scored with 63 during that same time frame. RHP Eflin is making his first start after coming back from injury, and his career success against the ARI lineup might not be enough to rely on for this matchup. RHP Gallen has an incredibly high 28.2% K rate the past month in addition to an above average .311 wOBA against him. There is enough to trust this underdog play.

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08/13 MLB Bets, Predictions, Picks: Brewers vs. Pirates, Reds vs. Phillies, Dodgers vs. Mets

Brewers vs. Pirates

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-120). *POSTPONED/VOIDED* I think this matchup has been the most popular for me to bet on this season. The Brewers are 12-4 against the Pirates this season, and each of their wins have been by two runs or more. I anticipate the trend to continue behind a strong southpaw performance from LHP Anderson, who has 13 innings against the Pirates this year while only giving up one unearned run. The Pirates sold away their two best hitters recently, and in the past week of games they have a team average of just .178 which isn’t going to mix well against a red hot division opponent.

Reds vs. Phillies

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Reds +1.5 (-140). In the last week, the Reds rank seventh in OBP and third in runs scored while the Phillies offense has struggled, ranking 24th in OBP and 25th in runs scored during the past week as well. I know RHP Wheeler is coming off a masterful outing, but it was against the Mets. I think he’s more hittable than that, given that he has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Reds are a team that can prove this line to be a bit too much in favor of the wrong team, and prove to be a play on a strong underdog, considering the Reds cover the run line 68.3% of the time as road underdogs this year, and to compliment that, the Phillies have covered just 37.8% of the time as home favorites this season.

Dodgers vs. Mets

Rating: 1.5 out of 5.

Dodgers -1.5 (+110). The Mets offense has been riding down a slippery slope, mustering up just 38 runs in the past two weeks, the second lowest total in the National League. LHP Urias will be able to capitalize on a struggling lineup, and will likely deliver five innings with a couple runs or less given up. Meanwhile, that should be enough for the Dodgers lineup against RHP Megill and his 7.45 ERA the past two starts. The Dodgers are third in OBP in the past two weeks, and have the firepower and lineup stability to win any game. Back the blue in this one!

A’s vs. Rangers +

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

UNDER 8.5 (-115). In their last nine games, the Rangers have scored an average of two runs per game, that’s it. They’re going to continue to struggle against an A’s pitching staff that has the lowest ERA (2.38) and lowest BAA (.198) in the majors for the past two weeks. The A’s are somewhat better offensively on the road, as their OPS sits higher at .740 compared to .707 at home. However, the OBP is identical for both home and away at .318. RHP Dunning already has four shutout innings against the A’s this season, and has pitched better in the past month than he did to start the year. What’s risky is that the A’s lead the league in OBP (.403) and runs scored (49) in the past two weeks so their offense has found it’s groove to say the least.

Cardinals vs. Royals

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Cardinals F5 ML (-140). Neither of these teams are great at scoring runs, but the Cardinals are much better at getting on base, especially recently. In the past two weeks, they have the fifth highest OBP in the majors, while the Royals have the second lowest. LHP Minor is coming off back to back four run outings, and one of those was even a loss to the Cardinals not too long ago. RHP Flaherty will be returning after a stint on the 60-day IL, and although it’s unlikely he pitches deep into this ballgame, I like his chances of returning to form against this lineup. As away favorites this year, the Cardinals are an MLB best 11-4 (73.3%) and the Royals are just 13-14 (48.1%) as home underdogs.

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