08/13 MLB Bets, Predictions, Picks: Brewers vs. Pirates, Reds vs. Phillies, Dodgers vs. Mets

Brewers vs. Pirates

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-120). *POSTPONED/VOIDED* I think this matchup has been the most popular for me to bet on this season. The Brewers are 12-4 against the Pirates this season, and each of their wins have been by two runs or more. I anticipate the trend to continue behind a strong southpaw performance from LHP Anderson, who has 13 innings against the Pirates this year while only giving up one unearned run. The Pirates sold away their two best hitters recently, and in the past week of games they have a team average of just .178 which isn’t going to mix well against a red hot division opponent.

Reds vs. Phillies

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Reds +1.5 (-140). In the last week, the Reds rank seventh in OBP and third in runs scored while the Phillies offense has struggled, ranking 24th in OBP and 25th in runs scored during the past week as well. I know RHP Wheeler is coming off a masterful outing, but it was against the Mets. I think he’s more hittable than that, given that he has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Reds are a team that can prove this line to be a bit too much in favor of the wrong team, and prove to be a play on a strong underdog, considering the Reds cover the run line 68.3% of the time as road underdogs this year, and to compliment that, the Phillies have covered just 37.8% of the time as home favorites this season.

Dodgers vs. Mets

Rating: 1.5 out of 5.

Dodgers -1.5 (+110). The Mets offense has been riding down a slippery slope, mustering up just 38 runs in the past two weeks, the second lowest total in the National League. LHP Urias will be able to capitalize on a struggling lineup, and will likely deliver five innings with a couple runs or less given up. Meanwhile, that should be enough for the Dodgers lineup against RHP Megill and his 7.45 ERA the past two starts. The Dodgers are third in OBP in the past two weeks, and have the firepower and lineup stability to win any game. Back the blue in this one!

A’s vs. Rangers +

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

UNDER 8.5 (-115). In their last nine games, the Rangers have scored an average of two runs per game, that’s it. They’re going to continue to struggle against an A’s pitching staff that has the lowest ERA (2.38) and lowest BAA (.198) in the majors for the past two weeks. The A’s are somewhat better offensively on the road, as their OPS sits higher at .740 compared to .707 at home. However, the OBP is identical for both home and away at .318. RHP Dunning already has four shutout innings against the A’s this season, and has pitched better in the past month than he did to start the year. What’s risky is that the A’s lead the league in OBP (.403) and runs scored (49) in the past two weeks so their offense has found it’s groove to say the least.

Cardinals vs. Royals

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Cardinals F5 ML (-140). Neither of these teams are great at scoring runs, but the Cardinals are much better at getting on base, especially recently. In the past two weeks, they have the fifth highest OBP in the majors, while the Royals have the second lowest. LHP Minor is coming off back to back four run outings, and one of those was even a loss to the Cardinals not too long ago. RHP Flaherty will be returning after a stint on the 60-day IL, and although it’s unlikely he pitches deep into this ballgame, I like his chances of returning to form against this lineup. As away favorites this year, the Cardinals are an MLB best 11-4 (73.3%) and the Royals are just 13-14 (48.1%) as home underdogs.

Today’s betting matchups can be found on the Draftkings website, no account or subscription required!

08/04 MLB Picks, Predictions, Stats: Red Sox vs. Tigers, Pirates vs. Brewers, Padres vs. A’s

Red Sox vs. Tigers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Tigers +1.5 (-125). LHP Rodriguez has been part of a somewhat troubled pitching staff in Boston the past month. Four starting pitchers (Rodriguez, Richards, Pivetta and Perez) have an ERA above 6.00, and Rodriguez has a 1.800 WHIP in his last 15 innings. The Tigers offense has scored more runs than anyone the past two weeks with 72, whereas the Red Sox are 20th on that list with 49. Four different Tigers (Baddoo, Candelario, Cabrera and Haas) are slugging above .500 in their last 12 games, so I think the Tigers are straight up sending out the hotter players and team right now.

As the home underdog this season, the Tigers are 26-14 (65%) against the spread, while the Red Sox as away favorite are just 7-15 against the spread. Those splits are in huge favor of the Tigers to cover in this one.

Pirates vs. Brewers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-113). Last night the Pirates won as underdogs against the Brewers. Today, the Brewers will rally behind RHP Peralta to further show why it’s a good idea to bet on really good teams with a good starting pitcher facing statistically inferior opponents. At home this year, Peralta is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, .107 BAA and has only allowed a .136 batting average to the Pirates this season in three starts. The Pirates are only 23rd in runs scored the past two weeks, while the Brewers offense is 4th with 68. Not to mention the Pirates have the worst slugging percentage in the past two weeks as well.

If you weren’t convinced already, maybe this will help. The Pirates only cover 40.7% of the time as road underdogs this year, 38.1% of the time against division opponents, and they have only covered four times this year against the Brewers after being the underdog in all 15 games.

Padres vs. Athletics

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Padres ML (+105). This could be an exciting pitching matchup, as two guys face off who have sub 3.00 ERA’s in their last 20+ innings pitched. RHP Montas has really been dialed in lately, throwing at least six innings in four straight starts, three of those included double digit strikeouts to pair with a 2.10 ERA in that span. However, he has been more hittable at home this year and the Padres have the highest batting average at Oakland this year, with a .341/.386/.463 slash line in 41 at bats.

The A’s have had a bit of trouble crossing the plate as they rank 28th in runs scored the past two weeks, and RHP Musgrove can force that tough streak to continue as he brings a team best 2.82 ERA in his last 22 and one third innings.

Stats pulled from:

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑