08/18 MLB Game Bets, Picks, Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees, Padres vs. Rockies

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Red Sox F5 ML (-105). These two teams have offenses that are playing very well, as the Red Sox lead the majors with 54 runs in the past week while the Yankees are ninth with 34. A doubleheader sweep was a wake up call for the Red Sox, who have seen their grip on the AL East be threatened. However, the Yankees are sending LHP Heaney to the mound, and in his last two starts he has posted a 6.43 ERA and has some serious home/road splits, with a 5.37 ERA at home compared to just 3.09 on the road. Meanwhile, RHP Pivetta has thrown the ball much better as of late, with a 3.38 ERA and a .169 BAA in his last 21 and one third innings. I like the chances of the Red Sox offense springing on Heaney and Pivetta to continue his strong performances.

Padres vs. Rockies

Rockies F5 ML (+118), OVER 14 (-105). A nice little underdog play, but the Rockies have actually had the Padres number this year, going 10-8 against them while outscoring them 71-63. The Rockies are going for the series sweep after covering the alternating spread in the first two games. The Rockies are much better at home than on the road, going 40-21 in Colorado this season, and given that they already roughed up Arrieta once this year in Colorado, I like their chances to do it again and secure yet another home win over their division rival. Over the past two weeks, the Rockies have the third highest slugging percentage in the national league at .491, and we all know how a game can go with a hot offense in Colorado. I am taking the Rockies to get to Arrieta like everyone else has this year.

This is the highest over total I have ever taken, but there’s many reasons to do so. The Rockies are averaging 8.5 runs per game in their last eight home games, and that’s without facing Arrieta who has a 13.50 ERA in his last 14 innings pitched, and will be making the first start for his new team in a park that he has a career 10.13 ERA in, during 18 and two thirds innings of work over the years resulting in an 0-3 record. Also, the Padres still have a very above average lineup. With Tatis Jr, Machado, Frazier, and more, there’s always a threat to score multiple runs quickly. To help with that confidence, Gonzalez’ last four starts have all went over 12 runs, and the last ones have both gone 14 runs total or more. This might be an 8-7 game that the Rockies squeeze out.

Angels vs. Tigers

Angels -1.5 (+130). RHP Ohtani has given up two earned runs or less in five straight starts, and has recorded the win in four of those games. The Tigers have just a .379 slugging in the past week, good for 21st in the league while the Angels are even lower at .341. LHP Skubal has put it together in his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run while the Tigers covered both spreads. However, he had been very shaky prior to those two starts, and over his career he hasn’t shown the ability to continue great streaks like he is currently on. I expect a low scoring affair capped off with an Angels win.

All odds taken from DraftKings official sportsbook: https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/88670847?category=game-lines&subcategory=game.

08/13 MLB Bets, Predictions, Picks: Brewers vs. Pirates, Reds vs. Phillies, Dodgers vs. Mets

Brewers vs. Pirates

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-120). *POSTPONED/VOIDED* I think this matchup has been the most popular for me to bet on this season. The Brewers are 12-4 against the Pirates this season, and each of their wins have been by two runs or more. I anticipate the trend to continue behind a strong southpaw performance from LHP Anderson, who has 13 innings against the Pirates this year while only giving up one unearned run. The Pirates sold away their two best hitters recently, and in the past week of games they have a team average of just .178 which isn’t going to mix well against a red hot division opponent.

Reds vs. Phillies

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Reds +1.5 (-140). In the last week, the Reds rank seventh in OBP and third in runs scored while the Phillies offense has struggled, ranking 24th in OBP and 25th in runs scored during the past week as well. I know RHP Wheeler is coming off a masterful outing, but it was against the Mets. I think he’s more hittable than that, given that he has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Reds are a team that can prove this line to be a bit too much in favor of the wrong team, and prove to be a play on a strong underdog, considering the Reds cover the run line 68.3% of the time as road underdogs this year, and to compliment that, the Phillies have covered just 37.8% of the time as home favorites this season.

Dodgers vs. Mets

Rating: 1.5 out of 5.

Dodgers -1.5 (+110). The Mets offense has been riding down a slippery slope, mustering up just 38 runs in the past two weeks, the second lowest total in the National League. LHP Urias will be able to capitalize on a struggling lineup, and will likely deliver five innings with a couple runs or less given up. Meanwhile, that should be enough for the Dodgers lineup against RHP Megill and his 7.45 ERA the past two starts. The Dodgers are third in OBP in the past two weeks, and have the firepower and lineup stability to win any game. Back the blue in this one!

A’s vs. Rangers +

Rating: 3.5 out of 5.

UNDER 8.5 (-115). In their last nine games, the Rangers have scored an average of two runs per game, that’s it. They’re going to continue to struggle against an A’s pitching staff that has the lowest ERA (2.38) and lowest BAA (.198) in the majors for the past two weeks. The A’s are somewhat better offensively on the road, as their OPS sits higher at .740 compared to .707 at home. However, the OBP is identical for both home and away at .318. RHP Dunning already has four shutout innings against the A’s this season, and has pitched better in the past month than he did to start the year. What’s risky is that the A’s lead the league in OBP (.403) and runs scored (49) in the past two weeks so their offense has found it’s groove to say the least.

Cardinals vs. Royals

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Cardinals F5 ML (-140). Neither of these teams are great at scoring runs, but the Cardinals are much better at getting on base, especially recently. In the past two weeks, they have the fifth highest OBP in the majors, while the Royals have the second lowest. LHP Minor is coming off back to back four run outings, and one of those was even a loss to the Cardinals not too long ago. RHP Flaherty will be returning after a stint on the 60-day IL, and although it’s unlikely he pitches deep into this ballgame, I like his chances of returning to form against this lineup. As away favorites this year, the Cardinals are an MLB best 11-4 (73.3%) and the Royals are just 13-14 (48.1%) as home underdogs.

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08/04 MLB Picks, Predictions, Stats: Red Sox vs. Tigers, Pirates vs. Brewers, Padres vs. A’s

Red Sox vs. Tigers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Tigers +1.5 (-125). LHP Rodriguez has been part of a somewhat troubled pitching staff in Boston the past month. Four starting pitchers (Rodriguez, Richards, Pivetta and Perez) have an ERA above 6.00, and Rodriguez has a 1.800 WHIP in his last 15 innings. The Tigers offense has scored more runs than anyone the past two weeks with 72, whereas the Red Sox are 20th on that list with 49. Four different Tigers (Baddoo, Candelario, Cabrera and Haas) are slugging above .500 in their last 12 games, so I think the Tigers are straight up sending out the hotter players and team right now.

As the home underdog this season, the Tigers are 26-14 (65%) against the spread, while the Red Sox as away favorite are just 7-15 against the spread. Those splits are in huge favor of the Tigers to cover in this one.

Pirates vs. Brewers

Rating: 3 out of 5.

Brewers -1.5 (-113). Last night the Pirates won as underdogs against the Brewers. Today, the Brewers will rally behind RHP Peralta to further show why it’s a good idea to bet on really good teams with a good starting pitcher facing statistically inferior opponents. At home this year, Peralta is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, .107 BAA and has only allowed a .136 batting average to the Pirates this season in three starts. The Pirates are only 23rd in runs scored the past two weeks, while the Brewers offense is 4th with 68. Not to mention the Pirates have the worst slugging percentage in the past two weeks as well.

If you weren’t convinced already, maybe this will help. The Pirates only cover 40.7% of the time as road underdogs this year, 38.1% of the time against division opponents, and they have only covered four times this year against the Brewers after being the underdog in all 15 games.

Padres vs. Athletics

Rating: 2 out of 5.

Padres ML (+105). This could be an exciting pitching matchup, as two guys face off who have sub 3.00 ERA’s in their last 20+ innings pitched. RHP Montas has really been dialed in lately, throwing at least six innings in four straight starts, three of those included double digit strikeouts to pair with a 2.10 ERA in that span. However, he has been more hittable at home this year and the Padres have the highest batting average at Oakland this year, with a .341/.386/.463 slash line in 41 at bats.

The A’s have had a bit of trouble crossing the plate as they rank 28th in runs scored the past two weeks, and RHP Musgrove can force that tough streak to continue as he brings a team best 2.82 ERA in his last 22 and one third innings.

Stats pulled from:

08/03 MLB Bets, Stats, Predictions: Rockies vs. Cubs, Twins vs. Reds

Cubs vs. Rockies

Rockies -1.5 (+120). The Cubs just completed a major selloff, and watched their three best players put on another jersey within the past week. They will have an odd mixture of guys finding their fit, and to do that against a team that hits .276 at home as a team and has scored the second most runs at home this season isn’t likely to turn out well for the Cubs. LHP Freeland has only given up two runs in his last 13 and two thirds innings pitched which he can carry into this start to help the Rockies cover the spread as home favorites in this one.

Twins vs. Reds

Reds ML (-140). I think success can be found in taking advantage of bad teams playing good offenses that are hunting for the playoffs. The Twins are just 8-17 (32.0%) as road underdogs this season, while the Reds own a 24-16 record as home favorites. In the past two weeks, the Reds have the highest batting average in the league at .288 as a team, while scoring 76 runs in that span (most in the national league).

08/02 MLB Game Bets, Predictions, Stats

Orioles vs. Yankees

OVER 10 (-106). The Yankees aren’t an easy team to show confidence in, as they rank 27th in the league in runs scored the last 12 games, and as home favorites this year, they are a mediocre 24-22 (52.2%). But, the lineup of Gallo, Rizzo, Judge, Stanton and Sanchez can get RHP Lopez in a bind early with just a few good at bats. Lopez has allowed a .295 batting average against the Yankees this year to go along with an 8.44 ERA against them also.

On the flip side, LHP Heaney has the highest OPS against him at .902 in Yankee stadium on his career, with an 8.79 ERA. Although those starts were with the Angels, those numbers are hard to ignore. I like the over in a game between a new lineup with good history against a shaky starting pitcher who struggles to go five innings without giving up more than a couple of baserunners. Add on top of that Heaney not pitching great in the stadium and this one could easily go over.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Giants ML (-195). This matchup has been completely in favor of the Giants this season, as they have won nine of the ten games they have played against the Diamondbacks. RHP DeSclafani has two wins against them already this year with a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a .544 OPS against in 13 and one thirds innings. The Giants have been the best team to bet on this year in baseball, and I will continue to back them with splits this good against a division rival currently sitting with the worst record in baseball.

PARLAY +302 odds!

Brewers vs. Pirates

Brewers -1.5 (-110). The Brewers are 10-3 against the Pirates this year, and have outscored them 85-34 in those games. In the past week, the Brewers are first in the league with 40 runs scored, while the Pirates are 25th with just 17 runs scored. LHP Lauer is allowing a .176 batting average against the Pirates this year to further capitalize on their struggling offense without Adam Frazier. There is too much of a gap between these two teams on paper to not take the run line in this one.

Mets vs. Marlins

Mets -1.5 (+112). A battle between two offenses that have struggled this year. However, the Mets have turned it around slightly as of late, ranking ninth in the MLB with a .768 OPS in the past 28 days while the Marlins only have a .684 OPS, the worst in the National league. RHP Megill has a .502 OPS against and a 1.04 ERA in his last 26 innings pitched, so he will likely shut down a bad Marlins offense. RHP Alcantara has a 4.05 ERA in his last 20 innings pitched, with a .666 OPS against.

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