Thanks to FanDuel’s same-game parlay promotion, I will be placing $200 on same game parlays over the course of the Wild Card Playoff weekend to receive $100 of credit back, regardless if my parlays win or lose.
LV vs. CIN (+524):
J. Chase TD Scorer, +100
D. Carr u257.5 pass yards, -114
Alt points u51.5, -150
LV vs. CIN (+482):
D. Waller o59.5 rec yards, -110
2H Total Points o23.5, -112
J. Chase o70.5 rec yards, -110
Reflection: The first half of this game is what I expected the second half to look like, with 33 points scored. I anticipated OAK being down some and relying on their passing game and chunk plays from Waller, which they got on occasion but not enough. Ja’Marr Chase is a top ten WR in the NFL, and his receiving props should be set at 100 every week, if not more.
Enjoy these short paragraphs for my reasoning on betting these teams this weekend:
NE ML (+170)
I’ll put my money on Bill Belichick in the playoffs against a divisional team he just lost to a few weeks ago. BUF might have the advantage on offense and even overall defensive unit, but NE can scheme up defenses that makes QB’s see ghosts. If J. Allen makes big throws like he did in their last matchup, BUF has a much greater chance at winning. I expect NE to control the game and keep BUF uncomfortable.
Reflection: Well, Josh Allen and the Bills played a literal perfect game. No punts, field goals, or turnovers. All touchdowns. Every time they wanted to score a TD, they did. Take my money.
SF ML (+150)
I always enjoy placing money on good offenses. SF leads the NFL in yards per play at 6.1, followed third by DAL at 6.0. Needless to say the offenses in this matchup are efficient. However, DAL is the worst team in the NFL at committing penalties (on both sides of the ball) and we all know how pivotal a pass interference or holding can be to a game. SF has the kicking advantage which could be a deciding factor in a closely rated matchup such as this one.
Reflection: This one felt a little too mainstream by the time the game rolled around, and SF did exactly what they needed to in order to win; establish the run, limit DAL offense and get creative. Almost gave up a crucial comeback attempt, but prevailed nonetheless.
ARI ML (+155)
We know this ‘upset’ is possible because it has already been done earlier in the year. I know it was early and these teams are at much different places now, however it’s still a divisional game in the playoffs that makes me think it will be closely matched. Would Kingsbury be on the hot seat if they lose this one?
Remember that historic 2019 LSU offense that shattered NCAA records? Well, turns out the connection from that QB (Joe Burrow) to that top WR (Ja’Marr Chase) is still successful at the next level – very successful. Chase is soon to be crowned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year while helping the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North.
After drafting Chase 5th overall, the Bengals took a big gamble on boosting their WR core and establishing a top-tier QB/WR duo, rather than drafting a franchise offensive linemen to protect what they already had in Burrow/Mixon. That gamble returned 81 catches, 1,455 yards, 13 TD’s, and a league best 18.1 yards per reception.
Considering the opening odds at Ja’Marr Chase +1500 to win OROY, if a Bengals fan or an advanced sports bettor placed a $10 bet on Chase to win, it will soon pay out $160. Think about that value in the upcoming draft; offensive players like WR Jameson Williams and QB Matt Corral could have great rookie seasons depending on where they land.
Many believed in the Bengals’ vision and Chase’ ability, including:
Max Staley, FanDuel
“That sounds like a Rookie of the Year recipe.”
Hitting the nail on the head multiple times, Staley correctly envisioned the Burrow to Chase connection being special at the next level. Not only that, in his writing he discusses the type of athlete and talent Chase is by himself. That was on display this entire season.
“It could prove to be an immediate payoff for the rookie receiver and his young quarterback.”
As I mentioned in the opening parts of this post, the 2019 LSU offense was dynamic and truly legendary. Burrow and Chase were MAJOR contributors to that success. There was much debate about protecting Burrow or giving Burrow a great weapon, and it’s nice to recognize the type of player they drafted instead of P. Sewell.
“Out of the gate, he offers NFL-Ready skillsets and a five-star bond with his quarterback.”
If you haven’t noticed by now, a common theme is that people who were confident in the Bengals pick of Ja’Marr chase had a vision of the QB/WR chemistry working at the next level, enticing some to take props on his season receiving yards. Although Bruni was wrong about the other Bengals WR to surpass 1,000 yards, his ideas were accurately displaced.
Reflection: Claypool was utilized as a runner and had 33 yards (team leader) in that category to keep his total below 50. Other two were great hits. Tough loss.
CHI vs. MIN (+1141):
D. Mooney TD Scorer
K. Cousins u249.5 pass yards
Reflection: Well, MIN won and D. Mooney was active. He wasn’t active in the end zone however and ultimately K. Cousins finished with exactly 250 passing yards total, .5 above the prop. We don’t talk about those though since Mooney’s ruled it out anyways!