NFL Bets – Week 6: Predictions, Odds, Preview: Chargers, Bills, Browns and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

NFL Stats Model – Week 6 Download

Underdogs

LAC +3.5 (-115)

A very exciting matchup between two of the best young QBs is going to result in Justin Herbert throwing well over 300 yards. In games against above average offenses, BAL has allowed an average of 381 passing yards per game while not showing any signs of having a typical dominant BAL defense. Meanwhile, the LAC have better showings against common opponents in LV and KC.

Favorites

DAL -3.5 (-112)

This DAL offense should have frequent opportunities to score points given how they average 6.5 yards per play despite the NE defense being among the stingiest this year (5.1 yards per play). I don’t like the NE track record of rookie/unproven QB’s and the one QB that Bill Belichick knows better than anyone else. DAL rolls this one and keeps their momentum.

BUF -5.5 (-110)

Am I the only one wondering why this line is not higher around 8 or 9? On the year, BUF’ margin of victory is 29 points! TEN defense has had issues at times throughout this season but has found a way to limit the points they’ve allowed. However, giving up 6.1 yards per play against Josh Allen and his squad that average 6.0 per play is a recipe for disaster, especially considering the insanely low yards per play (4.3) and points allowed per drive (1.0) by the BUF defense.

Totals

MIN vs. CAR u47.5 (-110)

CAR started the season with three straight games of 33 total points and has gone under 47.5 points in all but one game (DAL). MIN is on a three game streak of going under 47.5 points and that couples well with how their offense is not set up to be a super explosive one but rather a consistent and balanced approach averaging a moderate 5.7 yards per play. There may be holes in that CAR defense as evident against DAL, but when the offense is able to hold onto the football they generally take a good amount of time off the clock in doing so.

SEA vs. PIT u42.5 (-115)

This primetime matchup could be a whole lot of nothing. Replacing Russell Wilson will make it hard enough to score 20+ points, and the PIT defense should be getting a few starting bodies back to beef up their fifth best 28.6% pressure rate. The PIT offense got going (kinda) last week, but it’s still a bottom five offense in my NFL model, so with just a couple of wasted possessions they might be falling short of 20+ points as well.

Parlay: GB, JAX, BUF +425

Anytime TD Scorer:

October 14, 2021 0

NFL Week 5 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Bills, Rams and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

football-ranking-system Download

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from given my ranking system, not to achieve a high profit margin (yet).

UNDERDOGS:

CIN +3 (-110)

My ranking system likes CIN, and the eye test really likes Joe Burrow. With him at QB, the offense runs like a well oiled machine most of the time, similar to Aaron Rodgers and GB. Surprisingly, the CIN defense ranks in the top five in points per drive, points per 100 yards, yards per play and has the third lowest scoring percentage allowed. That could prove to be the difference maker in this one.

BUF ML (+130)

It’s crazy for me to phantom betting against the combo of Mahomes + Reid, however anytime I can get a moneyline price this good for a super bowl contender, I might as well take it. Especially when the KC defense is among the worst in the league and we all know what the BUF offense is capable of (top five in scoring percentage, 3 straight dominant performances and last years MVP runner up).

SF +5.5 (-110)

ARI has been the best team in football this year according to the eye test, my model, and by record. But, this is a tough divisional opponent that will have the ability to neutralize some of ARI weapons on offense. These defenses are rated almost identical in my model, and if Trey Lance’ running ability can keep Kyler Murray off of the field, SF will have an easier time getting through this one.

TOTALS:

CHI vs. LV u44.5 (-110)

With CHI having such abysmal passing numbers this year and LV actually holding their ground through the air, I don’t expect many explosive plays or even much consistent offense in this one. CHI does have the defensive personnel to stifle Derek Carr similar to what LAC did to him last week and if that happens an under could very well be in play.

GB vs CIN o50.5 (-110)

Both of these defenses have played above expectations at times this year, but I do believe these two offenses have great leaders under center that can lead to a high 20’s scoring affair. CIN defense has well above average defense ratings (4th best overall), but facing Aaron Rodgers is a different task than Big Ben or rookie Trevor Lawrence.

NO vs. WFT u43.5 (-110)

Neither defense played up to their potential last week with brutal showings that resulted in a loss. However, NO hasn’t proved they totally can totally score at will with Jameis yet and although Heinecke has posted solid stats this year, I think this NO defense that ranks near the top in many categories can cause WFT to resort to their rushing attack and shorten the game.

FAVORITES:

LAR ML (-134)

I bet on LAR last week and it ended up being the wrong read, so surely this week they find their way back to the win column. LAR holds a pretty decent edge on SEA in my overall rankings, and on a per drive basis their defense is almost a half point better. I’m also still confident that Matt Stafford makes this LAR offense one of the most dangerous in the league (they are rated #1 in my rankings).

CAR ML (-188)*

This is near the most I’ll ever lay down for a straight moneyline bet at -188. CAR has the type of defense that will win them games from that unit alone. They were picked apart last week but they are a half point better than PHI on a points per drive basis, as well as a full yard better in yards per play. CAR is easy to have confidence in for this matchup considering the common opponent played in back to back weeks didn’t give them as hard of a time as they did PHI.

*If RB McCaffrey is playing

LV -5.5 (-110)

Without David Montgomery, CHI could be without their most reliable and consistent form of offense through the first four games of the season. CHI has the lowest passing NY/A in the NFL at just 3.9, and the LV defense allows the fourth lowest NY/A at just 5.5. Overall there is nearly a 25 point difference in my rating system which shows that LV should have a major upper hand throughout the game.

PARLAY: DAL, CAR, TEN +222

October 8, 2021 0

NFL Week 4 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Patriots, Rams, Browns and more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

football-ranking-system Download

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 9 picks and a parlay. The 9 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs and totals. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.

UNDERDOGS:

NE +7 (-110)

Yep, I am betting on the Patriot way to get it done against what many consider the favorites to repeat as champions. According to my advanced ranking system, these two teams are actually neck and neck with each other, and NE even has the slight edge due to their top five defense and TB falling pretty flat on defense the first three games.

DET ML (+130)

The second worst rated team in my model is CHI, trailing only the saddening NYJ. While DET hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, they rate just below league average on offense and will roll out a far better offensive line and quarterback group. DET has the worst rated defense, but I’ve seen the CHI offense in action and it might not be too hard to scheme up a few stops against them when they need it.

DEN ML (+100)

I know this isn’t traditionally an underdog, but BAL sits at a heftier moneyline price at -112 so technically it is an underdog in regards to the matchup. The two offenses have around the same statistical ranking this season, and while DEN is rated as the second best defense, BAL is way behind as the fifth worst.

TOTALS:

CLV vs. MIN o51.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses are top ten in the league when fully healthy when factoring successful play rate, explosive play rate, points per drive and offense scoring percentage. MIN defense has not proven that they’ll be able to slow down this juggernaut CLV offense, and as always the trio of Jefferson, Theilen and Cook can score a few times each game if all goes well.

NYG vs. NO u42.5 (-110)

NYG is beat up on offense, which will make it even harder to score and gain yardage on a top five total defense. On the year NYG has a pretty low explosive play rate at 8%, and the NO defense is sixth in yards per play at 4.7. The NO offense hasn’t necessarily shattered the stat sheet, as they have allowed a very high pressure rate (31.3%) and are bottom five in yards per play (4.3) as well as net yards per passing attempt (4.8).

HOU vs. BUF o47 (-110)

BUF has proven that they are capable of scoring 30+ points on a good defense, and although HOU is onto their backup rookie QB, the game script in this game could play in favor of an over set relatively low.

FAVORITES:

LAR -4 (-115)

Kyler Murray does not have any career success against LAR as they’ve held him to just a 75.8 rating with 11 sacks, 5 TD’s and 4 INT. They’ve also limited him as a rushing threat with just a 3.54 Y/A in 13 carries. The LAR look like a freight train that can’t be stopped, and their defense looks like it can hang with anyone. I’ll ride them to cover or at least win until something tells me otherwise.

NO -7 (-110)

NYG could be without many of their offensive weapons, which as I alluded to earlier could make it much harder for them to crack one of the best defenses in the league up to this point of the season. NO was ranked very high last season and has many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball, however I still think Jameis Winston is capable of managing this team to some impressive looking wins (as he already has twice).

GB -6.5 (-115)

Two of the most storied franchises in the NFL have been trending in opposite directions. PIT maintains a defensive advantage in this matchup with TJ Watt returning to the field, but statistically GB isn’t far behind. The reason to take the favorite here though is the differences in offense. There is a very clear and significant difference in the efficiency and effectiveness of both offenses, as PIT sits as the second worst offense in successful play rate with marginally lower yards per play and net yards per pass attempt numbers.

PARLAY: DET, CLV, WFT +660

October 3, 2021 0

NFL Week 3 Bets, Predictions, Previews: Colts, Broncos, Patriots & more

All of these picks are used with data pulled from Pro Football Reference & Sharp Football Stats. The below spreadsheet has it all sorted in one place.

NFL Team Data Download

My strategy for this week and weeks ahead: 12 picks and a parlay. The 12 picks include three of the following: favorites, underdogs, totals and player props. The goal is to identify what angle is best to play from within certain parameters, not to achieve a high profit margin.

UNDERDOGS:

IND +5.5 (-110)

This big of a spread between divisional opponents seems like too much in this spot. Both teams are towards the bottom of the league in terms of statistical performance so far this year, and I think there’s enough flaws in the TEN defense (surprise surprise) to keep them from pulling away in this game. Keep in mind that IND kept it within a field goal against the clear cut #1 team right now in LAR.

CIN +3 (-110)

PIT does not have the best two game highlight reel, and the advanced ranking system backs that up. CIN actually holds a slight ranking advantage, which could be foreshadowing a close divisional game that might not involve as many explosive plays to allow for separation. It also doesn’t help that PIT is missing a couple of very important pieces to their team like their best WR.

LAC +7 (-115)

KC has played with fire their last three games, and has paid the price in two of them. Given this years advanced ranking system, KC is not the AFC juggernaut due to their poor defensive play (which could be because they’ve played two of the best offensive teams in the league to start the season) and LAC is just two spots behind them, thanks to their . Yet another divisional underdog I’m taking to cover the spread.

TOTALS:

NYJ vs. DEN o41.5 (-110)

The Jets are terrible, and will give up more than three touchdowns to this Broncos team. This total is set low, but I do think that there will be scoring opportunities for the Jets, as DEN ranks in the bottom of the league in defensive pressure percentage so far. It might not take much for this over to hit, given the low starting value.

NO vs. NE u42.5 (-110)

A great matchup between two of the best coaches the past 10-15 years. Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive pressure percentage and defensive yards per play, and to give me more confidence in the under, both teams are in the bottom 10 of offensive yards per play. Two great defenses with QB’s that might get tested is a recipe for the under.

TB vs. LAR u54.5 (-110)

The LAR defense that was the best in the league last year looks ready to return to that status. They’re well above average in every ranking statistic, and they still have an unstoppable force in Aaron Donald. At the same time, Brady was sacked three times last week against ATL. The game of the week shouldn’t feature all the fireworks we come to expect from these two teams. Here’s a preview on YouTube.

FAVORITES:

SF -3 (-115)

Per my ranking system, this is a huge mismatch in favor of SF. They have given Rodgers a hard time in recent years, and the way they can control the field position and pace of this game gives them the upper hand against GB, who through two weeks this season looks like there are some serious concerns. A win against DET does not convince me otherwise, especially when they were going toe to toe throughout the first half.

SEA ML (-125)

In case it isn’t already clear, Russell Wilson is a generational talent. It’s hard to go against him, especially in the first half of the season. The MIN offense has looked like it will go blow for blow with anyone in the league, but they have relied more on explosive plays rather than consistent yardage. SEA averages the most yards per play and is top six in points per drive and offensive success rate, oh they also have a bit of an explosive combination in Wilson and Lockett.

LV -3.5 (-110)

The surprise to start the season has been LV after upsetting the Ravens and Steelers in back to back games. MIA got bullied by one division opponent, and snuck by another with QB making his first ever NFL start. Rankings have this as a major mismatch, and I always trust the better QB to cover the spread when facing a backup.

PARLAY: BAL, LV, CLV, KC +228

PLAYER PROPS:

Jonathan Taylor rush attempts o15.5 (-108)

Jared Goff passing yards o262.5 (-114)

Robert Woods receiving yards o62.5 (-114)

September 26, 2021 0

NFL Week One: Three Gotta See Bets

PIT ML (+265)

Most football fans won’t like this pick, but for some reason I can see a lot of value in PIT rallying behind a completely new offensive look and capitalizing on all of the mismatches they are able to create while on offense. BUF has struggled with run defense, and I firmly believe Najee Harris will cement himself as one of the most well rounded running backs in the entire NFL this season. BUF is legit, no doubt about that. But let’s not be so quick to rule out the team with a hall of fame coach, QB, and top five defense, especially with the amount of value we can get here.

TEN -3 (-105)

I was a bit confused to see such a small spread for this game. Last year TEN had one of the most efficient offenses led by Derrick Henry and AJ Brown, leading to the fourth highest scoring percentage in the league at 47.9% to pair with the leagues second best turnover percentage at just 7.2%. To make it better, they added one of the most generational talents the game will see at WR in Julio Jones. Maybe it takes a few weeks for everyone to gel together, but for now I have to assume that the offense is going to remain unstoppable when firing on all cylinders, similar to NFL.com writer Gregg Rosenthal.

WFT ML (+102)

The Washington Football Team surprised many people last year, including me. On a per drive basis, WSH was in + range for scoring percentage and points per drive, despite not having much of a consistent offensive approach. Ryan Fitzpatrick should have enough help on offense to be more explosive and rewarding than last year, and with their defense being among the leagues best, it’s probably only going to take a few trips to the end zone to determine the winner.

All stats/data pulled during my research comes from Pro Football Reference.

All odds are pulled from a variety of sources including but not limited to: DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, MGM.

September 10, 2021 0

08/26 MLB Bets

Dodgers vs. Padres

Under 7.5 (-102). After last nights thrilling game, these two teams have got to be exhausted and will be stuck facing two of the best strikeout guys in league history throughout their careers. Both pitchers have a K rate higher than 33.3% against the respective rosters, and both offenses rank outside the top 20 for wOBA, wRC+ and BABIP the past two weeks. These are how well the starting pitchers have been in the past month:

Stat	Scherzer	Darvish
wOBA allowed	.259	.334
K%	32.1%	36.9%
WHIP	0.99	1.15
FIP	2.95	4.83
xFIP	3.21	2.26

It may look like the immediate upper hand goes to Scherzer and the Dodgers, but Darvish’ career numbers against the Dodgers lineup are good enough to do a double take, and feel confident taking the under in this game. See for yourself:

Nationals vs. Marlins

WSH tto3.5 (-110). Both pitchers have relatively good stats against the current opposing rosters, which is probably why this total is set low. However, RHP Hernandez has a pretty high 6.57 FIP in the past month, and I’m not convinced he will hold the Nationals at bay like he did with much weaker offenses in CHC & PIT in his earlier starts this year. WSH has a patient offense, ranking second in BB rate at 11.3% the last two weeks, but also rank 10th in wOBA at .335 and 11th in wRC+ in that same time frame. WSH averages 4.57 runs per game on the road this year, this is a good number for bettors!

Giants vs. Mets

Giants ML (-118). Nothing wrong with betting the favorite when this favorite happens to be the best team at winning games, like I have mentioned before! RHP Carrasco owns a 1.65 WHIP, 5.68 FIP and a .411 wOBA against him in the past month of action. He doesn’t have a single quality start all year, and the Giants will probably get to him early and often, despite his career success against the current roster. LHP Wood has been good against this Mets roster in his career as well, but he comes into this matchup with a 1.39 WHIP, 3.43 FIP and a .322 wOBA against him in the past month giving him the slight recency edge for starting pitching. The Mets are one of the worst teams at hitting lefties this year, their wOBA is .249 (27th) against LHP, and they only have a wRC+ of 53 (27th).

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

Diamondbacks F5 ML (+118). I like the juice enough here to trust the numbers. Certain numbers would indicate that this PHI offense is the worst in baseball as of late. In the past two weeks, they are second to last in wRC+, wOBA, and dead last in runs scored with 38. On the other hand, ARI ranks seventh in wRC+, fourth in wOBA and 10th in runs scored with 63 during that same time frame. RHP Eflin is making his first start after coming back from injury, and his career success against the ARI lineup might not be enough to rely on for this matchup. RHP Gallen has an incredibly high 28.2% K rate the past month in addition to an above average .311 wOBA against him. There is enough to trust this underdog play.

August 26, 2021 0

08/19 MLB Game Bets, Picks, Predictions: Orioles vs. Rays, Brewers vs. Cardinals

Brewers vs. Cardinals

MIL OVER 4.5 (-115). Everything about this matchup screams a series sweep for the Brewers. Their offense has the highest slugging percentage in the national league the past two weeks at .513, and also have a league best .292 batting average as a team in that time frame as well. They are facing LHP Lester, who has allowed a .389 batting average to this Brewers lineup in his career and is the owner of a 6.43 ERA in his last 21 innings of work. He’s had a harder time getting swings and misses lately, so I just don’t expect him to shut down a Brewers lineup the way that I expect RHP Woodruff to shut down a Cardinals lineup that hits just .178 against him in their careers. Because it is a divisional opponent, I feel safer betting on the Brewers offense to back me up rather than relying solely on Woodruff to cover a run line or under total. Riding with all favorites isn’t typically the way to go, but I think there’s enough juice here today for both of these to reign true.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks F5 ML (+146). LHP Bumgarner has dialed the time machine back to when he carried his team to a world series. In his past five starts the team has gone 4-1 and he has pitched to a 2.03 ERA, and hasn’t given up more than two runs in six straight starts. Meanwhile, RHP Wheeler has allowed four runs in five of his last seven starts and is pitching to a lineup that surprisingly isn’t as bad as even the Phillies lineup has been. In the past week, the Phillies are dead last in the national league with 17 runs scored, while the Diamondbacks are modest at 17th with 31 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are actually hitting the ball better as well, posting a top five slugging percentage in the past week at .505 compared to the Phillies of .313, which is good for dead last in all of baseball. I am hoping that the Diamondbacks can pull of a somewhat shocking series sweep, as they will be taking the field with their best pitcher as of late and an offense that is hitting much better than the counterpart.

August 19, 2021 0

08/18 MLB Game Bets, Picks, Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees, Padres vs. Rockies

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Red Sox F5 ML (-105). These two teams have offenses that are playing very well, as the Red Sox lead the majors with 54 runs in the past week while the Yankees are ninth with 34. A doubleheader sweep was a wake up call for the Red Sox, who have seen their grip on the AL East be threatened. However, the Yankees are sending LHP Heaney to the mound, and in his last two starts he has posted a 6.43 ERA and has some serious home/road splits, with a 5.37 ERA at home compared to just 3.09 on the road. Meanwhile, RHP Pivetta has thrown the ball much better as of late, with a 3.38 ERA and a .169 BAA in his last 21 and one third innings. I like the chances of the Red Sox offense springing on Heaney and Pivetta to continue his strong performances.

Padres vs. Rockies

Rockies F5 ML (+118), OVER 14 (-105). A nice little underdog play, but the Rockies have actually had the Padres number this year, going 10-8 against them while outscoring them 71-63. The Rockies are going for the series sweep after covering the alternating spread in the first two games. The Rockies are much better at home than on the road, going 40-21 in Colorado this season, and given that they already roughed up Arrieta once this year in Colorado, I like their chances to do it again and secure yet another home win over their division rival. Over the past two weeks, the Rockies have the third highest slugging percentage in the national league at .491, and we all know how a game can go with a hot offense in Colorado. I am taking the Rockies to get to Arrieta like everyone else has this year.

This is the highest over total I have ever taken, but there’s many reasons to do so. The Rockies are averaging 8.5 runs per game in their last eight home games, and that’s without facing Arrieta who has a 13.50 ERA in his last 14 innings pitched, and will be making the first start for his new team in a park that he has a career 10.13 ERA in, during 18 and two thirds innings of work over the years resulting in an 0-3 record. Also, the Padres still have a very above average lineup. With Tatis Jr, Machado, Frazier, and more, there’s always a threat to score multiple runs quickly. To help with that confidence, Gonzalez’ last four starts have all went over 12 runs, and the last ones have both gone 14 runs total or more. This might be an 8-7 game that the Rockies squeeze out.

Angels vs. Tigers

Angels -1.5 (+130). RHP Ohtani has given up two earned runs or less in five straight starts, and has recorded the win in four of those games. The Tigers have just a .379 slugging in the past week, good for 21st in the league while the Angels are even lower at .341. LHP Skubal has put it together in his last two starts, not allowing a single earned run while the Tigers covered both spreads. However, he had been very shaky prior to those two starts, and over his career he hasn’t shown the ability to continue great streaks like he is currently on. I expect a low scoring affair capped off with an Angels win.

All odds taken from DraftKings official sportsbook: https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/88670847?category=game-lines&subcategory=game.

August 18, 2021 0

08/13 MLB Bets, Predictions, Picks: Brewers vs. Pirates, Reds vs. Phillies, Dodgers vs. Mets

Brewers vs. Pirates

Brewers -1.5 (-120). *POSTPONED/VOIDED* I think this matchup has been the most popular for me to bet on this season. The Brewers are 12-4 against the Pirates this season, and each of their wins have been by two runs or more. I anticipate the trend to continue behind a strong southpaw performance from LHP Anderson, who has 13 innings against the Pirates this year while only giving up one unearned run. The Pirates sold away their two best hitters recently, and in the past week of games they have a team average of just .178 which isn’t going to mix well against a red hot division opponent.

Reds vs. Phillies

Reds +1.5 (-140). In the last week, the Reds rank seventh in OBP and third in runs scored while the Phillies offense has struggled, ranking 24th in OBP and 25th in runs scored during the past week as well. I know RHP Wheeler is coming off a masterful outing, but it was against the Mets. I think he’s more hittable than that, given that he has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Reds are a team that can prove this line to be a bit too much in favor of the wrong team, and prove to be a play on a strong underdog, considering the Reds cover the run line 68.3% of the time as road underdogs this year, and to compliment that, the Phillies have covered just 37.8% of the time as home favorites this season.

Dodgers vs. Mets

Dodgers -1.5 (+110). The Mets offense has been riding down a slippery slope, mustering up just 38 runs in the past two weeks, the second lowest total in the National League. LHP Urias will be able to capitalize on a struggling lineup, and will likely deliver five innings with a couple runs or less given up. Meanwhile, that should be enough for the Dodgers lineup against RHP Megill and his 7.45 ERA the past two starts. The Dodgers are third in OBP in the past two weeks, and have the firepower and lineup stability to win any game. Back the blue in this one!

A’s vs. Rangers +

UNDER 8.5 (-115). In their last nine games, the Rangers have scored an average of two runs per game, that’s it. They’re going to continue to struggle against an A’s pitching staff that has the lowest ERA (2.38) and lowest BAA (.198) in the majors for the past two weeks. The A’s are somewhat better offensively on the road, as their OPS sits higher at .740 compared to .707 at home. However, the OBP is identical for both home and away at .318. RHP Dunning already has four shutout innings against the A’s this season, and has pitched better in the past month than he did to start the year. What’s risky is that the A’s lead the league in OBP (.403) and runs scored (49) in the past two weeks so their offense has found it’s groove to say the least.

Cardinals vs. Royals

Cardinals F5 ML (-140). Neither of these teams are great at scoring runs, but the Cardinals are much better at getting on base, especially recently. In the past two weeks, they have the fifth highest OBP in the majors, while the Royals have the second lowest. LHP Minor is coming off back to back four run outings, and one of those was even a loss to the Cardinals not too long ago. RHP Flaherty will be returning after a stint on the 60-day IL, and although it’s unlikely he pitches deep into this ballgame, I like his chances of returning to form against this lineup. As away favorites this year, the Cardinals are an MLB best 11-4 (73.3%) and the Royals are just 13-14 (48.1%) as home underdogs.

Today’s betting matchups can be found on the Draftkings website, no account or subscription required!

August 13, 2021 0

08/04 MLB Picks, Predictions, Stats: Red Sox vs. Tigers, Pirates vs. Brewers, Padres vs. A’s

Red Sox vs. Tigers

Tigers +1.5 (-125). LHP Rodriguez has been part of a somewhat troubled pitching staff in Boston the past month. Four starting pitchers (Rodriguez, Richards, Pivetta and Perez) have an ERA above 6.00, and Rodriguez has a 1.800 WHIP in his last 15 innings. The Tigers offense has scored more runs than anyone the past two weeks with 72, whereas the Red Sox are 20th on that list with 49. Four different Tigers (Baddoo, Candelario, Cabrera and Haas) are slugging above .500 in their last 12 games, so I think the Tigers are straight up sending out the hotter players and team right now.

As the home underdog this season, the Tigers are 26-14 (65%) against the spread, while the Red Sox as away favorite are just 7-15 against the spread. Those splits are in huge favor of the Tigers to cover in this one.

Pirates vs. Brewers

Brewers -1.5 (-113). Last night the Pirates won as underdogs against the Brewers. Today, the Brewers will rally behind RHP Peralta to further show why it’s a good idea to bet on really good teams with a good starting pitcher facing statistically inferior opponents. At home this year, Peralta is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, .107 BAA and has only allowed a .136 batting average to the Pirates this season in three starts. The Pirates are only 23rd in runs scored the past two weeks, while the Brewers offense is 4th with 68. Not to mention the Pirates have the worst slugging percentage in the past two weeks as well.

If you weren’t convinced already, maybe this will help. The Pirates only cover 40.7% of the time as road underdogs this year, 38.1% of the time against division opponents, and they have only covered four times this year against the Brewers after being the underdog in all 15 games.

Padres vs. Athletics

Padres ML (+105). This could be an exciting pitching matchup, as two guys face off who have sub 3.00 ERA’s in their last 20+ innings pitched. RHP Montas has really been dialed in lately, throwing at least six innings in four straight starts, three of those included double digit strikeouts to pair with a 2.10 ERA in that span. However, he has been more hittable at home this year and the Padres have the highest batting average at Oakland this year, with a .341/.386/.463 slash line in 41 at bats.

The A’s have had a bit of trouble crossing the plate as they rank 28th in runs scored the past two weeks, and RHP Musgrove can force that tough streak to continue as he brings a team best 2.82 ERA in his last 22 and one third innings.

Stats pulled from:

August 4, 2021 0