Not long ago, it seemed like professional baseball being played this spring was a long shot. After both sides agreed to something, the great sport of baseball is almost back in full swing (pun intended), only awaiting the first pitch of the season, scheduled to be Thursday, April 7th.
Each team has a winning total set by various sports books in my state, so we’ll start with team win totals, then move on to division winners, player props and finally league awards bets. All of this work was done by @All_TimeBets & @DailyCFBCBB on Twitter, both of those pages are shown at the end of this page to get a feel for what they provide.
Italicized bets are @DailyCFBCBB picks
Bold bets are agreed upon by both parties
Regular font are @All_TimeBets picks
Chicago White Sox // Over 91.5 (+100)
Cleveland Guardians // Under 76.5 (-110)
Detroit Tigers // Over 77.5 (-110)
Kansas City Royals // Over 74.5 (-110)
Minnesota Twins // Under 81.5 (-110)
Baltimore Orioles // Under 62.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox // Under 85.5 (-110)
New York Yankees // Under 91.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Rays // Over 89.5 (-115)
Toronto Blue Jays // Over 92.5 (-110)
Houston Astros // Under 92.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Angels // Under 84.5 (-110)
Oakland Athletics // Under 69.5 (-110)
Seattle Mariners // Under 84.5 (-110)
Texas Rangers // Over 74.5 (-110)
Atlanta Braves // Under 91.5 (-110)
Miami Marlins // Over 76.5 (-110)
New York Mets // Under 88.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Phillies // Under 86.5 (-105)
Washington Nationals // Under 71.5 (-110)
Chicago Cubs // Under 75.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds // Under 74.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Brewers // Over 89.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates // Under 65.5 (-115)
St. Louis Cardinals // Over 84.5 (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks // Over 67.5 (-115)
Colorado Rockies // Under 68.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Dodgers // Over 98.5 (-105)
San Diego Padres // Over 90.5 (-110)
San Francisco Giants // Under 86.5 (-115)
AL Central: White Sox (-195) & Detroit Tigers (+800)
AL East: Blue Jays (+170)
AL West: Mariners (+450)
NL Central: Cardinals (+215)
NL East: Braves (+115)
NL West: Dodgers (-235)
A. Meadows u28.5 home runs (-110)
A. Judge u36.5 home runs (-110)
C. Seager o26.5 home runs (-110)
H. Renfroe o31.5 home runs (-110)
T. Story u26.5 home runs (-110)
J. Soto u34.5 home runs (-110)
R. Devers o37.5 home runs (-105)
T. Hernandez o99.5 runs batted in (-110)
E. Suarez u98.5 runs batted in (-110)
A. Manoah o152.5 strikeouts (-105)
C. Morton u185.5 strikeouts (-110)
N. Eovaldi o185.5 strikeouts (-110)
S. Bieber o235.5 strikeouts (-110)
S. Ohtani (+350)
K. Tucker (+2500)
Y. Alvarez (+3000)
X. Bogaerts (+4500)
R. Acuna Jr (+700)
F. Freeman (+1200)
M. Olson (+2200)
S. Bieber (+700)
Jose Berrios (+2000)
C. Burnes (+750)
W. Buehler (+900)
M. Fried (+2200)
A. DeSclafani (+9000)
Rookie of the Year
S. Torkelson (+450)
J. Rodriguez (+500)
R. Greene (+1500)
S. Suzuki (+380)
H. Greene (+750)
S. Sanchez (+1300)
Keep in mind the best strategy is not to bet on everything you see written here, and to always do your own research. For consistent quality sports betting content and a welcoming community, follow the Twitter accounts that contributed to this post:
Deciding who to pick in each game of a 67-game tournament is exceedingly difficult, but I have created an interactive dashboard that displays offense and defense efficiency for each tournament team. I highly recommend checking it out near the end (it’s FREE).
You can use this tool to decide which teams could be on upset alert, which games are evenly matched, and/or which top tier teams have what it takes to win it all. By being able to filter based on team, the analysis possibilities are endless with this dashboard.
To use, simply scroll below, select two or more teams from the left-side filter, and interpret the data shown on the graph. Here is an example of what can be done, viewing the top five teams according to kenpom.com:
This unique comparison likely won’t be needed until the final four, however it’s still evident that Gonzaga & Arizona are not just among the best with their offense, they run their offenses extremely fast. Remember, higher score is better for offense, but lower score is better for defense, similar to an actual basketball game. That would indicate how dominant Gonzaga has been – their gap between offense and defense is noticeably wider than anyone else in the top five, so they’d be able to match the pace of Arizona while limiting more of their opportunities.
(Keep in mind it looks messy at first until you select two teams. To select multiple teams on Windows, hold ‘control’ as you select each team. On Mac, hold ‘command’ as you select each team. On mobile, swipe each team name box to the right (towards the graph) to add to the visual.
Mason Rudolph? Marcus Mariota? Jimmy Garoppolo? Jameis Winston? Or a rookie…
QB Ben Roethlisberger gave 18 hall of fame seasons to the Steelers, and replacing him will likely be the hardest replacement ever for the franchise. The realistic options for next year’s starting QB job in Pittsburgh are as follows and NOT in any order:
Here is how some of these QB’s compare in their last ten games started (Mason Rudolph’s sample size):
This list has some talented QB’s and some not so talented QB’s. The craziest thing is that I think the best player for the job is one of the lesser talented names on the entire list… Factoring in everything that the Steelers front office should (like contract, familiarity, and draft capital) the best QB for the Steelers in 2022 is…
This will make someone rage click off this page I’m sure of it. But hear me out; Rudolph has one of the best things an NFL team could ask for – a QB on a rookie deal. The resources saved by locking in Rudolph as next years starter could and should be used to acquire smaller pieces for a roster that desperately needs better pieces.
Not only that, but the Steelers (and most teams) will not be jumping at the opportunity to take more risk than they have to. Rudolph has shown the staff and fans everything that he can and cannot do on the football field with the current offense, which should make it possible to game plan around his strengths and weaknesses. Whereas bringing in anyone will require somewhat of an adjustment and the QB performance might be negatively affected as a result.
2- Mitchell Trubisky (+1600)
Again, I’m probably not making a bunch of sense right now. But hear me out again; Trubisky just sat one year behind arguably the most talented QB in the world right now. The graph at the beginning shows one thing; his statistics look better than the others, namely his combination of rush yards per game, total touchdowns, completion percentage and touchdown percentage.
Based on current contract values, Trubisky will be cheaper than M. Mariota, J. Winston, A. Dalton and T. Bridgewater. He satisfies Tomlin’s desire for a mobile QB while actually improving the overall effectiveness of the offense, compared to Big Ben or Mason Rudolph.
3- Jameis Winston (+900)
Probably the most expensive name on the free agent list, I believe Winston can build off of his productive half-year in New Orleans. The stats don’t lie, and they tell us that Winston is truly the ‘all or nothing’ type of QB with a great ability to score touchdowns…and also the ability to ‘waste a pass’ (interception or incompletion).
That’s not exactly what the Steelers would sign him to be though, as he grew more patient and anticipated better throughout his time in New Orleans. He would only be brought in if other big upgrades were made to positions like WR and OL.
4- Malik Willis (+1400)
Here’s the first rookie, finally! The reason I don’t have any rookie higher than four is because I don’t think the better QB’s in the class will be available at pick 20, and I don’t see PIT trading up for any of them.
However if they did trade up, to get Willis, it would probably not be to sit him for a year, right? I would have to assume given his potential that they’re able to design an offense that he’s able to adapt to considering the offensive scheme they tried to run with the total opposite QB of Willis (Big Ben).
5- Sam Howell (+1800)
Oh another rookie? This rookie is (probably) the most pro-ready QB in the class, given his accuracy, experience and athleticism. Although I don’t like to put too much weight on this; Kevin Colbert and the scouting department have watched Sam Howell the most throughout the season/off-season. A real possibility could be the top five lineman are gone and the top two or three QB’s are gone, in either case might prompt PIT to draft Howell for safety and needs.
6- Marcus Mariota (+1300)
Mariota is probably dying to get the chance to start again, but even if he were to come to PIT, something tells me it would still be a battle between him and Rudolph for the entirety of preseason.
Although he could help boost the running game with his mobility, he hasn’t gotten the chance to do that in a while and his speed/elusiveness may be on the decline given his age. However, he has shown the ability to take care of the football and that could prove to be all a team needs from their QB.
7- Jimmy Garoppolo (+750)
Garoppolo has been discussed the most heavily in connection with PIT’s starting QB next season (at least among free agents). While he might have the innate ability to pull out wins and command a powerful offense, it isn’t as clear how much of that was because of him, rather than despite him. The price tag and expectations would far exceed the offensive productivity with him and the current scheme.
8- Matt Corral (+1200)
I won’t lie I think Corral would be fun to watch in PIT. He’d likely use his legs as much as he needed, and that in itself would give the offense a different type of style for the foreseeable future. Not sure how serious his injury is, but even if he’s fully healthy he doesn’t have the most prototypical frame of an NFL QB and will likely undergo A LOT of pressure if PIT drafts him in the first round. If it happens I wouldn’t surprise if Corral sat behind Rudolph to at least start the season.
9- Russel Wilson (+1200)
Well, Wilson is easily the most proven and valuable QB on this list, and adding an escape artist QB who throws one of the best deep ball passes in the game would instantly make the offense more explosive given their QB immobility last year and lack of deep ball success.
What’s important to keep in mind though is Wilson would cost at least two first-round picks and maybe even a player. The roster isn’t constructed to spend as much as possible on a QB when other pieces are needed yet would be forfeited with the acquisition of Wilson.
10- Kenny Pickett (+900)
Now this is NOT me saying Pickett is the worst QB on this list, please keep that in mind! As it stands now, I’m willing to bet that there’s a 99% chance Pickett gets drafted inside the top-15 and that would mean PIT sacrificing draft capital and/or players to jump up and select him.
I like the chemistry Pickett would have with offensive coordinator Matt Canada, however no amount of chemistry can fix the offensive line that would be in a state of unknown heading into next season, especially if a QB is taken in round one and not a lineman.
There are many paths for the Pittsburgh Steelers to find their next QB, whether it be for one year or the next ten. There are pros and cons to each of their options and a lot of the decisions will likely come down to cost and risk. Mason Rudolph should be the starting QB next year, because he is the lowest-risk option on this list and is also the cheapest while he’s still on his rookie contract.
With that being said, if the objective is to look at the odds and make money on this situation; my bets are going to be placed on Mason Rudolph ($5), Marcus Mariota ($1), and Sam Howell ($1). I wouldn’t take them though until more of the draft process gets going, as that will tell the fans a lot about who is focused on who.
Thanks to FanDuel’s same-game parlay promotion, I will be placing $200 on same game parlays over the course of the Wild Card Playoff weekend to receive $100 of credit back, regardless if my parlays win or lose.
LV vs. CIN (+524):
J. Chase TD Scorer, +100
D. Carr u257.5 pass yards, -114
Alt points u51.5, -150
LV vs. CIN (+482):
D. Waller o59.5 rec yards, -110
2H Total Points o23.5, -112
J. Chase o70.5 rec yards, -110
Reflection: The first half of this game is what I expected the second half to look like, with 33 points scored. I anticipated OAK being down some and relying on their passing game and chunk plays from Waller, which they got on occasion but not enough. Ja’Marr Chase is a top ten WR in the NFL, and his receiving props should be set at 100 every week, if not more.
Enjoy these short paragraphs for my reasoning on betting these teams this weekend:
NE ML (+170)
I’ll put my money on Bill Belichick in the playoffs against a divisional team he just lost to a few weeks ago. BUF might have the advantage on offense and even overall defensive unit, but NE can scheme up defenses that makes QB’s see ghosts. If J. Allen makes big throws like he did in their last matchup, BUF has a much greater chance at winning. I expect NE to control the game and keep BUF uncomfortable.
Reflection: Well, Josh Allen and the Bills played a literal perfect game. No punts, field goals, or turnovers. All touchdowns. Every time they wanted to score a TD, they did. Take my money.
SF ML (+150)
I always enjoy placing money on good offenses. SF leads the NFL in yards per play at 6.1, followed third by DAL at 6.0. Needless to say the offenses in this matchup are efficient. However, DAL is the worst team in the NFL at committing penalties (on both sides of the ball) and we all know how pivotal a pass interference or holding can be to a game. SF has the kicking advantage which could be a deciding factor in a closely rated matchup such as this one.
Reflection: This one felt a little too mainstream by the time the game rolled around, and SF did exactly what they needed to in order to win; establish the run, limit DAL offense and get creative. Almost gave up a crucial comeback attempt, but prevailed nonetheless.
ARI ML (+155)
We know this ‘upset’ is possible because it has already been done earlier in the year. I know it was early and these teams are at much different places now, however it’s still a divisional game in the playoffs that makes me think it will be closely matched. Would Kingsbury be on the hot seat if they lose this one?
Reflection: Claypool was utilized as a runner and had 33 yards (team leader) in that category to keep his total below 50. Other two were great hits. Tough loss.
CHI vs. MIN (+1141):
D. Mooney TD Scorer
K. Cousins u249.5 pass yards
Reflection: Well, MIN won and D. Mooney was active. He wasn’t active in the end zone however and ultimately K. Cousins finished with exactly 250 passing yards total, .5 above the prop. We don’t talk about those though since Mooney’s ruled it out anyways!
Three bets this week, feeling good about all of them. It’s the last week to shake up the draft order, which will cause a new, more accurate edition of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.
Rating: 3 out of 5.
PHI has been a good team throughout this season, able to control most games with their league leading rushing attack (in terms of yards and rush TD’s), and could potentially be a team to upset someone in the playoffs. With that being said, they have yet to beat a team that’s currently above .500, and DAL is the best team in the league at covering the spread (meaning they can typically handle less talented teams).
Additionally, in today’s NFL I believe the team with a better passing offense has a better chance at winning games for a variety of reasons, and DAL has the better passing QB and WR’s in this matchup.
SEA vs. ARI o47.5 (-110)
Rating: 2.5 out of 5.
Russ and co. are going to want to cook one last time before a potential off-season departure for the franchise QB. A game like this could turn into a shootout and both teams have the playmakers and QB’s to make it happen.
ARI offense has hit a wall lately, but they are still one of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and SEA will have a hard time forcing turnovers against them. It also makes an over easer to bet on when SEA is dead last in offensive turnover percentage, meaning their offense production is more ‘readable’ and ‘predictive’.
Rating: 2 out of 5.
I know all about the dominance of SF over LAR in their past six matchups, however I think this spread is an overreaction to recent games as well as over compensating for previous head to head trends.
As many games do, the difference in this spread covering or not could come down to turnovers. Both teams commit turnovers around the same rate, however LAR defense forces turnovers at a top ten percentage (12.9%), compared to SF who is 26th (8.7%).
This year, it’s the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that are statistically similar (and better than most other teams). In Sporting News’ latest NFL Power Rankings, these three teams are among the top four in the game at the moment. Although some stats need extra context, there are three in particular that are highly correlated with why good teams perform good, as well as why bad teams perform bad. Here they are:
Offensive Scoring Percentage
Highest Rated Teams: NE, BUF, LAR, IND, TB
Lowest Rated Teams: HOU, JAX, DET, SEA, NYJ
Well, let’s just say that the lowest rated teams in this statistic are currently slated as the first three picks in the upcoming draft (that means the teams are not good football teams). The offensive scoring percentage is self-explanatory; it’s a measure of how often an offense scores, in terms of number of drives resulting in a field goal or touchdown.
Typically, scoring the football is a result of converting, whether it be by sustaining a good drive or having the players to turn explosive plays into scores. A team that converts on offense not only controls the flow of the game, but also allows for more game winning drives than an offense with poor conversion abilities.
Bottom line – if the offense is not scoring frequently, there are a good amount of fundamental flaws in the offense that will contribute to poor future performance. On the other hand, if an offense is able to put points on the board every other time they have the ball, it means that they have the ability and execution to contribute to good future performance.
D NY/A (Defensive Net Yards per Pass Attempt allowed)
Highest Rated Teams: BUF, CAR, NE, ARI, GB
Lowest Rated Teams: DET, NYJ, BAL, WFT, JAX
It’s not a secret that the NFL has gotten pass-heavy on offense, especially in the last 10-15 years. Naturally with that transformation comes the growing necessity of a great passing defense to maintain success. This statistic measures the net yards allowed each time an opposing QB throws a pass.
Long 3rd downs and 2-minute drills are some of the most deciding moments in any football game that is played. It just so happens that the most common play call in those situations is a pass, so the ability to stop it will boost a teams potential in every single game they play.
The reason Patrick Mahomes earned a $500 million contract and the reason that most QB’s are the highest earner on the team is because they’re who needs to be making the plays in pivotal moments of a game. That leaves it up to the defense to stop that generational talent, and teams that rank at the top of this category have better chances down the stretch.
Defensive Turnover Rate
Highest Rated Teams: NE, BUF, IND, TB, NYG
Lowest Rated Teams: JAX, NYJ, SEA, PIT, BAL
No play gets the crowd as excited, or as deflated, as a turnover. There is never a good time for a turnover…unless you’re the defense. Then it’s always a good time for a turnover. Being able to generate more chances to score and control the game is a part of the most dangerous teams.
Overall, the good teams share a lot of similarities amongst each other and that’s an effect of adaptive coaching staffs as well as exceptional execution from the players. Don’t be surprised if the team raising the Lombardi at the end of the season is at or near the top of these categories!
I’m taking another FG favorite, and this time the biggest mismatch will be the CAR defense against the NYG offense. CAR ranks near the top in categories such as yards per play (5.2), scoring percentage (29.3%) and points per drive (1.68). Meanwhile, the NYG offense has 5.6 yards per play, 35.4% scoring and 1.74 points per drive. If it wasn’t for a OT win against NO, NYG would be winless on the season, and they’ll be without Saquon Barkley in this game who scored twice against NO in that upset.
Reflection: Sam Darnold is not a good NFL quarterback, and the CAR defense was massively inflated due to their easy schedule to start the season. NYG still aren’t a good football team, but I have bet on CAR twice this season and both times they have looked terrible.
CIN +6.5 (-110)
I am betting against a BAL team that outscored CIN a combined 65-6 in the two games last year, but the beginning of this season shows a much improved CIN defense that is able to give the offense enough opportunities to hit their home runs. The BAL offense is among the most dominant in the league, but there can be weaknesses in their pass rush and secondary on the other side of the ball. The only common opponent among the two this year is winless DET, and CIN handled them with much more ease than BAL did. I think the divisional underdog keeps it within a field goal, perhaps something like a 30-27 loss.
Reflection: Probably not a final score many saw coming, but CIN looks to be the real deal. The offense is fully capable of scoring with the best of them and the defense has been among the leagues most surprising this season. BAL didn’t put up much of a fight and now the AFC North looks open for potentially every team.
WSH vs. GB o48.5 (-110)
So far these two teams average out to surpass this total in their games’ combined scores this season. WSH does have enough of an offensive attack to put points on the board, but it has been their poor defense that has caused such high game totals. Their opponents average well over 30 points per game in their last five, and this GB team still has Rodgers and Adams at home where they continue to take care of the football and convert drives into points. Not quite a shootout, but a reasonable score could be 31-20 and we’ll take that.
Reflection: GB did their part, they scored when they had the chance thanks to Aaron Rodgers and company, but WSH was not able to do anything on offense despite GB being without four defensive starters. The WSH defense has not lived up to the hype coming into the season and perhaps their offense is feeling the weight of having a backup take all the snaps under center.
PHI vs. LV u49.0 (-110)
PHI has a very inconsistent offense, scoring on a relatively low 33.8% of their drives. On defense though, PHI has shined more than I expected. Against some of the best offenses (KC, TB, DAL) they broke down, but they have four straight games with a turnover and have not allowed 300+ yards passing in any game yet this year. LV will be looking to throw the ball more often than run, as they have only ran for 100+ yards once this year. I predict a teeter totter game ending somewhere along the lines of 27-20.
Reflection: I was right about the PHI offense, it is extremely inconsistent and they were out of this game before they even got their footing. LV has dealt with plenty of distractions in recent weeks but they showed up against a decent PHI defense and put up 33 points. A garbage time TD prevented this from going under and that has been PHI motto all year.
DET vs. LAR u50.5 (-110)
Forget about Jared Goff’s “revenge game”, DET hasn’t cracked 20 points in five straight games. We all know what the LAR offense is capable of; they own the first rated passing attack in the league at 8.6 NY/A. Couple that with going against the worst pass defense in the league in DET and this could become a very lopsided game, leading to a lot of bleeding clock and unmotivated drives. This game shouldn’t be close, no matter how you stack the pieces. Final score around the likes of 30-17.
Reflection: DET still hasn’t scored 20+ points in any of their last six games, despite showing some trick plays to get a head start early in this game. LAR are as good as any team in the league when they’re firing on all cylinders, and it was nice to see that their offense didn’t have a huge field day in terms of scoring points against a troublesome DET defense.
A very exciting matchup between two of the best young QBs is going to result in Justin Herbert throwing well over 300 yards. In games against above average offenses, BAL has allowed an average of 381 passing yards per game while not showing any signs of having a typical dominant BAL defense. Meanwhile, the LAC have better showings against common opponents in LV and KC.
DAL -3.5 (-112)
This DAL offense should have frequent opportunities to score points given how they average 6.5 yards per play despite the NE defense being among the stingiest this year (5.1 yards per play). I don’t like the NE track record of rookie/unproven QB’s and the one QB that Bill Belichick knows better than anyone else. DAL rolls this one and keeps their momentum.
BUF -5.5 (-110)
Am I the only one wondering why this line is not higher around 8 or 9? On the year, BUF’ margin of victory is 29 points! TEN defense has had issues at times throughout this season but has found a way to limit the points they’ve allowed. However, giving up 6.1 yards per play against Josh Allen and his squad that average 6.0 per play is a recipe for disaster, especially considering the insanely low yards per play (4.3) and points allowed per drive (1.0) by the BUF defense.
MIN vs. CAR u47.5 (-110)
CAR started the season with three straight games of 33 total points and has gone under 47.5 points in all but one game (DAL). MIN is on a three game streak of going under 47.5 points and that couples well with how their offense is not set up to be a super explosive one but rather a consistent and balanced approach averaging a moderate 5.7 yards per play. There may be holes in that CAR defense as evident against DAL, but when the offense is able to hold onto the football they generally take a good amount of time off the clock in doing so.
SEA vs. PIT u42.5 (-115)
This primetime matchup could be a whole lot of nothing. Replacing Russell Wilson will make it hard enough to score 20+ points, and the PIT defense should be getting a few starting bodies back to beef up their fifth best 28.6% pressure rate. The PIT offense got going (kinda) last week, but it’s still a bottom five offense in my NFL model, so with just a couple of wasted possessions they might be falling short of 20+ points as well.