Brewers vs. Cardinals
MIL OVER 4.5 (-115). Everything about this matchup screams a series sweep for the Brewers. Their offense has the highest slugging percentage in the national league the past two weeks at .513, and also have a league best .292 batting average as a team in that time frame as well. They are facing LHP Lester, who has allowed a .389 batting average to this Brewers lineup in his career and is the owner of a 6.43 ERA in his last 21 innings of work. He’s had a harder time getting swings and misses lately, so I just don’t expect him to shut down a Brewers lineup the way that I expect RHP Woodruff to shut down a Cardinals lineup that hits just .178 against him in their careers. Because it is a divisional opponent, I feel safer betting on the Brewers offense to back me up rather than relying solely on Woodruff to cover a run line or under total. Riding with all favorites isn’t typically the way to go, but I think there’s enough juice here today for both of these to reign true.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks F5 ML (+146). LHP Bumgarner has dialed the time machine back to when he carried his team to a world series. In his past five starts the team has gone 4-1 and he has pitched to a 2.03 ERA, and hasn’t given up more than two runs in six straight starts. Meanwhile, RHP Wheeler has allowed four runs in five of his last seven starts and is pitching to a lineup that surprisingly isn’t as bad as even the Phillies lineup has been. In the past week, the Phillies are dead last in the national league with 17 runs scored, while the Diamondbacks are modest at 17th with 31 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are actually hitting the ball better as well, posting a top five slugging percentage in the past week at .505 compared to the Phillies of .313, which is good for dead last in all of baseball. I am hoping that the Diamondbacks can pull of a somewhat shocking series sweep, as they will be taking the field with their best pitcher as of late and an offense that is hitting much better than the counterpart.